Marlins vs Twins Game Breakdown

Get ready to dive into the deep end as the Miami Marlins swim upstream to the cooler waters of Target Field, squaring off against the Minnesota Twins in a clash that promises more twists than a Twin Cities pretzel! With the Marlins floundering near the bottom of the National League and the Twins swinging to stay relevant in the American League, tonight’s 07:40 PM showdown is set against a backdrop of sunny skies and perfect pitch weather. The stakes? A juicy over/under of 8.5 and betting lines that lean heavily in favor of the home team. Fresh off a decisive victory and loss respectively, both teams are looking to make a splash in tonight’s game. So, as the Marlins try to net a win and the Twins aim to chop down their competition, expect every pitch to feel like a marlin leaping out of the water or a twin blade slicing through the competition!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: September 26, 2024 07:40PM EST

Location: Target Field, Minnesota

Weather: Sunny with winds from the S at 6.9 mph. Temperature is at 81.0° with 38% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	MIA ML	MIN ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+195	-240	8.5	1.5/-1.5
Recent	+215	-265	8.5	1.5/-1.5
Difference	+20	-25	0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

3W-7L

AWAY

120W-195L

31.7% Win Probability

LAST 10

3W-7L

HOME

171W-142L

68.3% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
09/24/24	Miami Marlins MIA	4	Under	-3.5
09/24/24	Minnesota Twins MIN	1	Under	-3.5
09/25/24	Miami Marlins MIA	3	Over	+2.5
09/25/24	Minnesota Twins MIN	8	Over	+2.5
04/03/23	Minnesota Twins MIN	11	Over	+3.5
04/03/23	Miami Marlins MIA	1	Over	+3.5
04/04/23	Minnesota Twins MIN	0	Under	-7.5
04/04/23	Miami Marlins MIA	1	Under	-7.5
04/05/23	Minnesota Twins MIN	2	Under	-1.5
04/05/23	Miami Marlins MIA	5	Under	-1.5

Marlins Vs Over/Under

Twins Vs Over/Under

Valente Bellozo

ERA 3.817 | IP 63.7 | 3.0W-4.0L | KO 42.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
09-20-24	vsATL	3-4W	5.3	7	3	3	Under
09-14-24	@WAS	1-4L	5.3	6	3	4	Under
09-09-24	@PIT	2-3L	5.3	6	3	2	Under
09-04-24	vsWAS	3-4W	6.0	3	0	1	Under
08-29-24	@COL	12-8W	4.0	7	6	4	Over
08-24-24	vsCHC	14-2L	4.7	7	6	1	Over
08-18-24	@NYM	3-2W	5.3	7	2	4	Under
08-13-24	@PHI	5-0W	7.0	4	0	4	Under
08-07-24	vsCIN	4-6W	5.7	5	0	4	Over
08-02-24	@ATL	3-5L	5.0	2	2	5	Under

David Festa

ERA 4.8 | IP 60.0 | 2.0W-6.0L | KO 72.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
09-20-24	@BOS	4-2W	5.0	4	1	6	Under
09-15-24	vsCIN	2-9W	3.7	3	2	4	Over
09-09-24	vsLAA	6-2L	4.0	4	4	4	Under
09-03-24	@TB	1-2L	5.0	5	2	7	Under
08-28-24	vsATL	5-1L	6.0	2	2	7	Under
08-23-24	vsSTL	6-1L	3.7	3	3	5	Under
08-17-24	@TEX	5-2W	5.0	6	2	6	Under
08-11-24	vsCLE	5-3L	3.3	3	1	3	Under
08-05-24	@CHC	3-0W	5.0	2	0	9	Under
07-30-24	@NYM	0-2L	5.0	3	2	6	Under

Marlins Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
09/27	vs MIN	3-8L	11	1	Over
09/26	vs MIN	4-1W	10	1	Under
09/24	@ ATL	4-5L	9	4	Over
09/24	@ ATL	4-5L	9	4	Over
09/23	@ ATL	2-6L	6	0	Under
09/22	@ ATL	4-3W	8	0	Under
09/21	@ LAD	4-20L	9	3	Over
09/20	@ LAD	4-8L	8	0	Over
09/19	@ LAD	11-9W	15	2	Over
09/17	vs WAS	3-4L	6	1	Under
09/16	vs WAS	1-4L	6	0	Under
09/15	vs WAS	1-4L	8	1	Under
09/14	vs WAS	6-3W	8	0	Over
09/13	vs PIT	1-3L	5	0	Under
09/12	vs PIT	4-6L	9	0	Over

Twins Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
09/27	@ MIA	8-3W	8	1	Over
09/26	@ MIA	1-4L	8	0	Under
09/24	vs BOS	1-8L	4	0	Over
09/24	vs BOS	3-9L	8	0	Over
09/24	vs BOS	1-8L	4	0	Over
09/24	vs BOS	3-9L	8	0	Over
09/22	vs BOS	4-2W	13	0	Under
09/21	vs CLE	2-3L	3	0	Under
09/20	vs CLE	4-5L	8	0	Over
09/19	vs CLE	4-1W	8	1	Under
09/18	vs CLE	3-4L	8	0	Under
09/17	@ CIN	9-2W	12	1	Over
09/16	@ CIN	1-11L	5	0	Over
09/15	@ CIN	4-8L	5	1	Over
09/13	@ LAA	6-4W	11	1	Over

Team’s Batting Order

Miami Marlins	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	wOBA	HR/Rate
#1 Xavier Edwards	7.6	9.5	0.305	0.373	0.418	0.791	0.320	0.004
#2 Connor Norby	7.7	10.2	0.247	0.488	0.333	0.821	0.335	0.062
#3 Jesus Sanchez	7.3	9.5	0.248	0.424	0.337	0.761	0.312	0.040
#4 Jake Burger	8.2	10.8	0.245	0.462	0.322	0.784	0.323	0.058
#5 Kyle Stowers	5.9	7.7	0.203	0.328	0.271	0.599	0.251	0.016
#6 Jonah Bride	5.7	7.5	0.260	0.442	0.409	0.851	0.341	0.047
#7 Griffin Conine	6.2	8.0	0.246	0.420	0.348	0.768	0.314	0.029
#8 Otto Lopez	6.3	8.0	0.268	0.372	0.332	0.704	0.292	0.015
#9 Nick Fortes	4.7	6.0	0.224	0.315	0.271	0.586	0.247	0.014

Minnesota Twins	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	wOBA	HR/Rate
#1 Byron Buxton	11.6	15.3	0.278	0.520	0.366	0.886	0.361	0.051
#2 Carlos Correa	8.4	11.1	0.303	0.502	0.432	0.934	0.373	0.041
#3 Trevor Larnach	7.7	10.3	0.256	0.427	0.376	0.803	0.326	0.042
#4 Royce Lewis	9.7	13.0	0.240	0.466	0.339	0.806	0.328	0.057
#5 Carlos Santana	7.6	10.1	0.232	0.412	0.361	0.773	0.315	0.043
#6 Kyle Farmer	7.1	9.5	0.229	0.371	0.348	0.719	0.296	0.024
#7 Ryan Jeffers	7.0	9.4	0.223	0.426	0.338	0.764	0.314	0.050
#8 Willi Castro	6.6	8.7	0.251	0.392	0.384	0.776	0.316	0.022
#9 Jose Miranda	6.6	8.4	0.284	0.440	0.343	0.784	0.323	0.022

Marlins Notable Injuries

Max Meyer OUT (SP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 09/05/24. Impact: 3.6
John McMillon OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 09/13/24. Impact: 2.0
Calvin Faucher OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 09/06/24. Impact: 1.6

Twins Notable Injuries

Matt Wallner OUT (OF): Avg: 0.265 SLG:0.525 Last game: 09/26/24. Impact: 2.0
Max Kepler OUT (OF): Avg: 0.258 SLG:0.389 Last game: 09/03/24. Impact: 1.1