Brewers vs Reds Game Breakdown & Projections – Thu, Apr 11th 2024

Hold onto your brewskis, sports fans, because the Milwaukee Brewers are rollin’ into the Great American Ball Park, ready to take the Cincinnati Reds to school in a classic midday showdown. These Brewers, boasting an impressive 8W-3L record, are just half a game shy of the top spot in the National League conference, while the Reds, sitting at a respectable 6W-6L, are trailing by three games. The stakes are sky-high and the betting lines are buzzing, with an over/under of 8.5, the Brewers at -125, and the Reds at a tantalizing 105. In their last rendezvous, the Brewers had the Reds seeing red, handing them a 7-2 defeat. But don’t let the numbers fool you, this ain’t no walk in the park; the weather’s looking as unpredictable as a knuckleball, with heavy rain and winds from the southeast at 2.2 mph, and a sticky 100% humidity. So, whether you’re a Brewer or a Red, it’s time to step up to the plate and brace for a stormy battle of the bats!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 11, 2024 01:10PM EST

Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati

Weather: Heavy rain with winds from the SE at 2.2 mph. Temperature is at 60.1° with 100% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	MIL ML	CIN ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-125	+105	8.5	-1.5/1.5
Recent	-131	+109	8.5	-1.5/1.5
Difference	-6	+4	0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

7W-3L

AWAY

135W-111L

56.7% Win Probability

LAST 10

5W-5L

HOME

116W-132L

43.3% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
04/08/24	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	8	Over	+9.5
04/08/24	Cincinnati Reds CIN	10	Over	+9.5
04/09/24	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	9	Over	+5.5
04/09/24	Cincinnati Reds CIN	5	Over	+5.5
04/10/24	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	7	Over	+0.5
04/10/24	Cincinnati Reds CIN	2	Over	+0.5
06/02/23	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	5	Over	+0.5
06/02/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	4	Over	+0.5
06/03/23	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	10	Over	+9.5
06/03/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	8	Over	+9.5
06/04/23	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	5	Under	-2.5
06/04/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	1	Under	-2.5
06/05/23	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	0	Under	-6.5
06/05/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	2	Under	-6.5
07/07/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	3	Over	+1.5
07/07/23	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	7	Over	+1.5
07/08/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	8	Over	+4.5
07/08/23	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	5	Over	+4.5
07/09/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	0	Under	-7.5
07/09/23	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	1	Under	-7.5
07/14/23	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	1	Under	-7.5
07/14/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	0	Under	-7.5
07/15/23	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	3	Under	-5.5
07/15/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	0	Under	-5.5
07/16/23	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	4	Under	-1.5
07/16/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	3	Under	-1.5
07/24/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	2	Under	-3.5
07/24/23	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	3	Under	-3.5
07/25/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	4	Under	-1.5
07/25/23	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	3	Under	-1.5
07/26/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	0	Under	-5.5
07/26/23	Milwaukee Brewers MIL	3	Under	-5.5

Brewers Vs Over/Under

Reds Vs Over/Under

Wade Miley

ERA 3.306 | IP 114.3 | 8.0W-4.0L | KO 71.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-05-24	vsSEA	5-6W	5.7	4	3	7	Over
03-29-24	@NYM	3-1W	6.0	1	1	8	Under
09-24-23	@MIA	1-6L	3.0	9	4	4	Under
09-18-23	@STL	0-1L	6.0	4	1	6	Under
09-12-23	vsMIA	1-3W	6.3	2	1	9	Under
09-06-23	@PIT	4-5L	5.3	4	3	4	Over
09-01-23	vsPHI	5-7W	6.0	2	1	10	Over
08-26-23	vsSD	4-5W	5.3	2	2	9	Over
08-19-23	@TEX	6-1W	5.7	4	1	11	Under
08-13-23	@CWS	7-3W	6.0	4	0	6	Over
04-10-24	@CIN	7-2W	4.0	1	1	0	Over
09-27-23	vsSTL	2-3W	5.0	6	1	2	Under
09-21-23	@STL	6-0W	6.0	3	0	7	Under
09-15-23	vsWAS	3-5W	5.7	5	3	3	Under
09-09-23	@NYY	9-2W	3.7	1	2	3	Over
09-03-23	vsPHI	4-2L	6.3	4	4	4	Under
08-28-23	@CHC	6-2W	6.0	4	2	1	Under
08-22-23	vsMIN	3-7W	5.0	5	3	4	Over
08-16-23	@LAD	1-7L	5.0	7	4	2	Under
08-08-23	vsCOL	7-3L	6.0	2	1	2	Over

Nick Martinez

ERA 3.426 | IP 110.3 | 6.0W-4.0L | KO 106.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-10-24	vsMIL	7-2L	6.0	6	7	9	Over
04-05-24	vsNYM	3-2L	6.0	3	1	6	Under
03-30-24	vsWAS	7-6L	4.7	5	2	7	Over
10-01-23	@STL	3-4L	5.0	9	4	6	Under
09-26-23	@CLE	11-7W	3.0	8	7	3	Over
09-20-23	vsMIN	5-3L	7.0	3	1	14	Under
09-15-23	@NYM	5-3W	5.7	4	3	6	Under
09-10-23	vsSTL	1-7W	6.0	1	1	9	Under
08-30-23	@SF	4-1W	5.3	3	1	6	Under
08-25-23	@ARI	8-10L	3.7	5	5	4	Over
04-06-24	vsNYM	6-9W	5.0	8	5	6	Over
03-31-24	vsWAS	5-6W	5.0	6	3	3	Over
09-29-23	@CWS	3-2L	5.0	2	0	8	Under
09-23-23	@STL	5-2L	4.0	2	0	3	Under
09-17-23	@OAK	10-1L	3.0	1	0	5	Over
09-13-23	@LAD	6-1L	1.0	1	0	0	Under
09-09-23	@HOU	5-7W	0.7	4	1	0	Over
09-06-23	@PHI	5-1L	2.3	1	0	4	Under
09-03-23	@SF	0-4W	1.0	1	0	1	Under
09-01-23	@SF	3-7W	2.0	1	0	2	Over

Brewers Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/12	vs CIN	7-2W	6	2	Over
04/11	vs CIN	9-5W	13	0	Over
04/10	vs CIN	8-10L	12	2	Over
04/09	@ SEA	12-4W	14	3	Over
04/08	@ SEA	3-5L	5	1	Under
04/07	@ SEA	6-5W	8	3	Over
04/05	@ MIN	3-7L	7	2	Over
04/04	@ MIN	3-2W	7	1	Under
04/02	vs NYM	4-1W	9	0	Under
04/01	vs NYM	7-6W	16	1	Over
03/31	vs NYM	3-1W	8	1	Under
10/03	@ CHC	4-0W	6	1	Under
10/02	@ CHC	6-10L	12	2	Over
10/01	@ CHC	4-3W	8	0	Under
09/30	@ STL	3-0W	8	0	Under

Reds Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/12	@ MIL	2-7L	4	1	Over
04/11	@ MIL	5-9L	10	0	Over
04/10	@ MIL	10-8W	10	3	Over
04/09	@ NYM	1-3L	3	0	Under
04/08	@ NYM	9-6W	8	1	Over
04/07	@ NYM	2-3L	7	1	Under
04/05	vs PHI	4-1W	6	0	Under
04/04	vs PHI	4-9L	8	0	Over
04/03	vs PHI	6-3W	8	1	Over
04/02	@ WAS	6-5W	14	2	Over
04/01	@ WAS	6-7L	10	2	Over
03/30	@ WAS	8-2W	10	2	Over
10/03	vs STL	3-4L	9	1	Under
10/02	vs STL	6-15L	14	2	Over
10/01	vs STL	19-2W	17	6	Over

Team’s Batting Order

Milwaukee Brewers	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#2 William Contreras	7.6	10.0	0.289	0.459	41.6%	87.5%	3.2%
#3 Christian Yelich	9.0	11.8	0.278	0.451	42.7%	87.7%	3.5%
#4 Willy Adames	8.5	11.4	0.219	0.408	35.9%	76.7%	4.4%
#5 Sal Frelick	7.8	10.3	0.246	0.351	39.8%	74.9%	1.6%
#6 Jake Bauers	7.4	9.8	0.202	0.413	31.4%	72.7%	5.0%
#6 Rhys Hoskins	nan	12.0	nan	nan	nan%	nan%	nan%
#7 Blake Perkins	6.4	8.6	0.22	0.355	38.3%	73.8%	2.8%
#8 Joey Ortiz	5.5	7.2	0.212	0.242	21.2%	45.5%	0.0%
#9 Brice Turang	6.5	8.3	0.222	0.304	31.9%	62.3%	1.5%

Cincinnati Reds	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Jonathan India	8.0	10.7	0.244	0.409	39.6%	80.4%	3.8%
#2 Spencer Steer	9.6	12.6	0.273	0.467	41.0%	87.7%	4.0%
#3 C. Encarnacion-Strand	8.2	10.8	0.27	0.477	35.6%	83.3%	5.9%
#4 Jeimer Candelario	8.6	11.4	0.251	0.473	38.3%	85.6%	4.4%
#5 Stuart Fairchild	6.3	8.3	0.228	0.388	37.0%	75.8%	2.3%
#5 Jake Fraley	7.1	9.4	0.257	0.445	38.5%	83.0%	4.5%
#6 Elly De La Cruz	7.6	9.9	0.234	0.409	32.5%	73.5%	3.4%
#7 Santiago Espinal	6.7	8.7	0.25	0.338	34.2%	68.0%	0.9%
#8 Will Benson	6.8	8.8	0.276	0.5	42.0%	92.0%	3.8%
#8 Nick Martini	5.5	7.3	0.264	0.583	36.1%	94.4%	8.3%
#9 Luke Maile	5.7	7.6	0.235	0.391	34.1%	73.2%	3.4%
#9 Tyler Stephenson	5.3	7.0	0.246	0.382	35.4%	73.7%	2.8%