Twins vs Red Sox Game Breakdown

Get ready for a sizzling showdown at Fenway tonight as the Minnesota Twins, boasting a solid 80-73 record, roll into Boston to clash with the 76-77 Red Sox. The stakes are as high as the autumn winds whipping through the park at 13.9 mph, with the Twins trying to claw their way back from 8.5 games behind in the American League and the Sox lagging 13 games back. With the first pitch slated for 07:10 PM EST and the over/under teasing at a tantalizing 9.0, you can bet the atmosphere will be as charged as the cool, overcast 64-degree weather. Both teams are itching to rebound from narrow losses, setting the stage for what promises to be an epic battle of bats and wits. So, as the Twins try to plant victory in the heart of Red Sox territory, let’s see if they can truly ‘twin’ it in Boston, or if the Sox will ‘sock’ it to ’em on their own turf!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: September 20, 2024 07:10PM EST

Location: Fenway Park, Boston

Weather: Overcast with winds from the NE at 13.9 mph. Temperature is at 64.0° with 81% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	MIN ML	BOS ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-115	-105	9.0	-1.5/1.5
Recent	-118	-102	8.5	-1.5/1.5
Difference	-3	+3	-0.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

4W-6L

AWAY

141W-176L

54.1% Win Probability

LAST 10

4W-6L

HOME

161W-151L

45.9% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
05/03/24	Boston Red Sox BOS	2	Under	-2.0
05/03/24	Minnesota Twins MIN	5	Under	-2.0
05/04/24	Boston Red Sox BOS	1	Under	-5.0
05/04/24	Minnesota Twins MIN	3	Under	-5.0
05/05/24	Boston Red Sox BOS	9	Over	+2.0
05/05/24	Minnesota Twins MIN	2	Over	+2.0
04/18/23	Minnesota Twins MIN	4	Push	-0.0
04/18/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	5	Push	-0.0
04/19/23	Minnesota Twins MIN	10	Over	+5.0
04/19/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	4	Over	+5.0
04/20/23	Minnesota Twins MIN	5	Over	+7.0
04/20/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	11	Over	+7.0
06/19/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	9	Over	+3.0
06/19/23	Minnesota Twins MIN	3	Over	+3.0
06/20/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	10	Over	+5.0
06/20/23	Minnesota Twins MIN	4	Over	+5.0
06/21/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	4	Push	-0.0
06/21/23	Minnesota Twins MIN	5	Push	-0.0
06/22/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	0	Under	-3.0
06/22/23	Minnesota Twins MIN	6	Under	-3.0

Twins Vs Over/Under

Red Sox Vs Over/Under

David Festa

ERA 5.073 | IP 55.0 | 2.0W-6.0L | KO 66.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
09-15-24	vsCIN	2-9W	3.7	3	2	4	Over
09-09-24	vsLAA	6-2L	4.0	4	4	4	Under
09-03-24	@TB	1-2L	5.0	5	2	7	Under
08-28-24	vsATL	5-1L	6.0	2	2	7	Under
08-23-24	vsSTL	6-1L	3.7	3	3	5	Under
08-17-24	@TEX	5-2W	5.0	6	2	6	Under
08-11-24	vsCLE	5-3L	3.3	3	1	3	Under
08-05-24	@CHC	3-0W	5.0	2	0	9	Under
07-30-24	@NYM	0-2L	5.0	3	2	6	Under
07-24-24	vsPHI	4-5W	4.3	4	1	7	Over

Luis Garcia

ERA N/A | IP 0 | 0W-0L | KO 0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
09-13-24	@NYY	4-5L	5.0	2	0	2	Over
09-08-24	vsCWS	7-2L	5.7	6	2	2	Over

Twins Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
09/21	vs CLE	2-3L	3	0	Under
09/20	vs CLE	4-5L	8	0	Over
09/19	vs CLE	4-1W	8	1	Under
09/18	vs CLE	3-4L	8	0	Under
09/17	@ CIN	9-2W	12	1	Over
09/16	@ CIN	1-11L	5	0	Over
09/15	@ CIN	4-8L	5	1	Over
09/13	@ LAA	6-4W	11	1	Over
09/12	@ LAA	10-5W	10	3	Over
09/11	@ LAA	2-6L	5	1	Under
09/10	vs KC	0-2L	5	0	Under
09/09	vs KC	2-4L	5	0	Under
09/08	vs KC	0-5L	4	0	Under
09/07	vs TB	4-3W	7	2	Under
09/06	vs TB	4-9L	11	2	Over

Red Sox Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
09/21	vs TB	0-2L	1	0	Under
09/20	vs TB	2-1W	6	1	Under
09/19	vs TB	3-8L	3	2	Over
09/17	vs NYY	2-5L	8	1	Under
09/16	vs NYY	7-1W	9	0	Under
09/15	vs NYY	4-5L	9	2	Over
09/14	vs NYY	1-2L	4	1	Under
09/13	@ BAL	5-3W	8	1	Under
09/12	@ BAL	3-5L	7	0	Under
09/11	@ BAL	12-3W	15	4	Over
09/10	@ CWS	2-7L	8	2	Over
09/09	@ CWS	7-5W	10	2	Over
09/08	@ CWS	3-1W	5	1	Under
09/06	vs NYM	3-8L	9	0	Over
09/05	vs NYM	2-7L	6	0	Over

Team’s Batting Order

Minnesota Twins	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	wOBA	HR/Rate
#1 Byron Buxton	10.4	13.7	0.272	0.523	0.365	0.889	0.362	0.053
#2 Matt Wallner	8.9	12.0	0.260	0.544	0.446	0.990	0.391	0.064
#3 Carlos Santana	8.2	10.8	0.240	0.426	0.369	0.795	0.323	0.045
#4 Royce Lewis	8.8	11.8	0.246	0.492	0.344	0.836	0.340	0.062
#5 Trevor Larnach	7.1	9.4	0.248	0.432	0.372	0.804	0.326	0.045
#6 Carlos Correa	7.5	9.9	0.312	0.521	0.438	0.959	0.382	0.045
#7 Willi Castro	7.1	9.3	0.252	0.398	0.386	0.784	0.319	0.023
#8 Christian Vazquez	5.6	7.2	0.233	0.349	0.273	0.622	0.261	0.025
#9 Edouard Julien	5.9	7.8	0.208	0.337	0.341	0.678	0.279	0.031

Boston Red Sox	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	wOBA	HR/Rate
#1 Jarren Duran	9.7	12.5	0.282	0.495	0.369	0.865	0.351	0.033
#2 Rafael Devers	9.5	12.6	0.271	0.511	0.402	0.913	0.365	0.052
#3 Tyler O’Neill	8.7	11.7	0.247	0.531	0.393	0.923	0.368	0.079
#4 Masataka Yoshida	7.3	9.5	0.289	0.433	0.396	0.829	0.338	0.028
#5 Trevor Story	8.5	10.8	0.246	0.377	0.319	0.696	0.289	0.029
#6 Triston Casas	7.1	9.3	0.240	0.430	0.369	0.799	0.323	0.050
#6 Luis Garcia	9.5	9.5	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan	nan
#7 Connor Wong	6.7	8.6	0.284	0.436	0.365	0.801	0.329	0.031
#8 Wilyer Abreu	6.4	8.5	0.259	0.474	0.362	0.837	0.340	0.041
#9 Ceddanne Rafaela	6.3	8.1	0.247	0.395	0.288	0.683	0.285	0.029

Twins Notable Injuries

Max Kepler OUT (OF): Avg: 0.258 SLG:0.389 Last game: 09/03/24. Impact: 1.1

Red Sox Notable Injuries

David Hamilton OUT (2B/SS): Avg: 0.242 SLG:0.391 Last game: 08/30/24. Impact: 2.5
Brennan Bernardino OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 09/12/24. Impact: 0.6
Lucas Sims OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 08/27/24. Impact: 0.2