Mets vs Braves Game Breakdown

Strap in, sports fans! Tonight’s showdown at Truist Park is not just any ballgame—it’s a sizzling skirmish at the top of the National League as the New York Mets, hot on the heels of the leaderboard, clash bats with the Atlanta Braves under the glow of the stadium lights at 7:20 PM EST. With the Mets looking to close a 5.5-game gap and the Braves aiming to trim their 6.5-game deficit, the stakes are skyscraper-high. Both teams are coming off a head-to-head, where the Braves took the Mets down a notch just yesterday. The betting lines are buzzing, the over/under teetering at a tantalizing 7.5. As the partly cloudy skies loom over the field with a gentle southern breeze, tonight’s game promises to be a meteorological marvel as much as a matchup miracle. So, let’s see if the Mets can “catch” up or if the Braves will continue to “chop” down the competition!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: September 25, 2024 07:20PM EST

Location: Truist Park, Atlanta

Weather: Partly cloudy with winds from the S at 5.4 mph. Temperature is at 79.0° with 72% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	NYM ML	ATL ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+152	-184	7.5	1.5/-1.5
Recent	+146	-178	7.5	1.5/-1.5
Difference	-6	+6	0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

7W-3L

AWAY

149W-166L

40.7% Win Probability

LAST 10

6W-4L

HOME

189W-125L

59.3% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
04/08/24	New York Mets NYM	8	Over	+7.5
04/08/24	Atlanta Braves ATL	7	Over	+7.5
04/09/24	New York Mets NYM	5	Over	+3.5
04/09/24	Atlanta Braves ATL	6	Over	+3.5
04/11/24	New York Mets NYM	16	Over	+12.5
04/11/24	Atlanta Braves ATL	4	Over	+12.5
05/10/24	Atlanta Braves ATL	4	Under	-1.5
05/10/24	New York Mets NYM	2	Under	-1.5
05/11/24	Atlanta Braves ATL	4	Under	-2.5
05/11/24	New York Mets NYM	1	Under	-2.5
05/12/24	Atlanta Braves ATL	3	Under	-0.5
05/12/24	New York Mets NYM	4	Under	-0.5
07/25/24	Atlanta Braves ATL	2	Under	-2.5
07/25/24	New York Mets NYM	3	Under	-2.5
07/26/24	Atlanta Braves ATL	4	Over	+4.5
07/26/24	New York Mets NYM	8	Over	+4.5
07/27/24	Atlanta Braves ATL	4	Under	-3.5
07/27/24	New York Mets NYM	0	Under	-3.5
07/28/24	Atlanta Braves ATL	9	Over	+3.5
07/28/24	New York Mets NYM	2	Over	+3.5
09/24/24	New York Mets NYM	1	Under	-1.5
09/24/24	Atlanta Braves ATL	5	Under	-1.5
04/28/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	4	Under	-3.5
04/28/23	New York Mets NYM	0	Under	-3.5
08/12/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	21	Over	+16.5
08/12/23	New York Mets NYM	3	Over	+16.5
05/01/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	3	Over	+0.5
05/01/23	New York Mets NYM	5	Over	+0.5
05/01/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	9	Over	+9.5
05/01/23	New York Mets NYM	8	Over	+9.5
06/06/23	New York Mets NYM	4	Over	+2.5
06/06/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	6	Over	+2.5
06/07/23	New York Mets NYM	5	Over	+4.5
06/07/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	7	Over	+4.5
06/08/23	New York Mets NYM	10	Over	+15.5
06/08/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	13	Over	+15.5
08/11/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	7	Under	-0.5
08/11/23	New York Mets NYM	0	Under	-0.5
08/12/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	6	Under	-1.5
08/12/23	New York Mets NYM	0	Under	-1.5
08/13/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	6	Over	+5.5
08/13/23	New York Mets NYM	7	Over	+5.5
08/21/23	New York Mets NYM	10	Over	+6.5
08/21/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	4	Over	+6.5
08/22/23	New York Mets NYM	2	Under	-2.5
08/22/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	3	Under	-2.5
08/23/23	New York Mets NYM	0	Under	-0.5
08/23/23	Atlanta Braves ATL	7	Under	-0.5

Mets Vs Over/Under

Braves Vs Over/Under

David Peterson

ERA 3.079 | IP 114.0 | 9.0W-3.0L | KO 93.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
09-20-24	vsPHI	12-2L	3.7	8	5	4	Over
09-15-24	@PHI	1-2L	7.7	4	1	6	Under
09-10-24	@TOR	2-6L	4.3	8	5	2	Over
09-03-24	vsBOS	2-7W	6.0	6	1	11	Over
08-29-24	@ARI	3-2W	7.0	7	2	4	Under
08-24-24	@SD	7-1W	7.3	5	1	2	Over
08-19-24	vsBAL	3-4W	7.0	6	3	8	Under
08-14-24	vsOAK	1-9W	6.3	3	1	4	Over
08-08-24	@COL	9-1W	5.0	4	1	5	Over
08-03-24	@LAA	4-5L	6.0	5	2	4	Over

Chris Sale

ERA 2.398 | IP 172.7 | 17.0W-3.0L | KO 221.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
09-19-24	@CIN	15-3W	5.0	5	2	6	Over
09-14-24	vsLAD	1-10W	6.0	5	1	6	Over
09-08-24	vsTOR	3-4W	6.0	2	0	7	Under
09-03-24	vsCOL	0-3W	7.0	6	0	9	Under
08-28-24	@MIN	5-1W	6.0	6	1	6	Under
08-23-24	vsWAS	2-3W	7.0	9	2	4	Under
08-17-24	@LAA	11-3W	6.0	6	2	10	Over
08-12-24	@SF	1-0W	7.0	3	0	12	Under
08-07-24	vsMIL	8-5L	4.7	9	3	10	Over
07-31-24	@MIL	6-2W	5.7	6	2	6	Over

Mets Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
09/26	vs ATL	1-5L	4	1	Under
09/24	@ PHI	2-1W	7	1	Under
09/24	@ PHI	2-1W	7	1	Under
09/23	@ PHI	6-3W	9	2	Over
09/22	@ PHI	2-12L	4	1	Over
09/21	@ PHI	10-6W	11	4	Over
09/20	@ WAS	10-0W	11	2	Over
09/19	@ WAS	10-1W	14	3	Over
09/18	@ WAS	2-1W	6	0	Under
09/17	vs PHI	1-2L	7	1	Under
09/16	vs PHI	4-6L	9	0	Over
09/15	vs PHI	11-3W	14	4	Over
09/13	vs TOR	6-2W	4	2	Over
09/12	vs TOR	2-6L	6	0	Over
09/11	vs TOR	3-2W	3	0	Under

Braves Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
09/26	@ NYM	5-1W	10	2	Under
09/24	vs MIA	5-4W	11	2	Over
09/24	vs MIA	5-4W	11	2	Over
09/23	vs MIA	6-2W	14	3	Over
09/22	vs MIA	3-4L	9	2	Under
09/21	vs CIN	15-3W	18	6	Over
09/20	vs CIN	7-1W	10	2	Over
09/19	vs CIN	5-6L	12	3	Over
09/18	@ LAD	0-9L	4	0	Over
09/17	@ LAD	2-9L	4	0	Over
09/16	@ LAD	10-1W	10	0	Over
09/15	@ LAD	6-2W	10	2	Over
09/13	vs WAS	1-5L	6	0	Under
09/12	vs WAS	12-0W	15	4	Over
09/11	@ CIN	0-1L	2	0	Under

Team’s Batting Order

New York Mets	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	wOBA	HR/Rate
#1 Jose Iglesias	6.9	8.7	0.332	0.452	0.400	0.852	0.349	0.016
#2 Starling Marte	7.1	9.1	0.264	0.383	0.350	0.733	0.301	0.021
#3 Mark Vientos	6.7	8.9	0.273	0.529	0.362	0.891	0.362	0.066
#4 Pete Alonso	7.0	9.3	0.238	0.458	0.375	0.834	0.337	0.056
#5 J.D. Martinez	6.6	8.8	0.232	0.404	0.357	0.761	0.310	0.038
#6 Tyrone Taylor	6.4	8.3	0.252	0.411	0.328	0.738	0.305	0.023
#7 Francisco Alvarez	4.9	6.5	0.233	0.402	0.338	0.740	0.303	0.037
#8 Harrison Bader	5.0	6.5	0.238	0.377	0.313	0.690	0.287	0.031
#9 Luisangel Acuna	4.9	6.2	0.371	0.743	0.400	1.143	0.467	0.086

Atlanta Braves	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	wOBA	HR/Rate
#1 Michael Harris II	8.4	10.8	0.268	0.432	0.324	0.756	0.312	0.038
#2 Ozzie Albies	8.9	11.6	0.249	0.403	0.322	0.725	0.300	0.026
#3 Marcell Ozuna	8.2	10.8	0.309	0.560	0.433	0.993	0.395	0.066
#4 Matt Olson	7.8	10.5	0.250	0.468	0.386	0.854	0.344	0.050
#5 Jorge Soler	7.7	10.3	0.242	0.443	0.392	0.835	0.336	0.044
#6 Ramon Laureano	7.3	9.4	0.256	0.430	0.333	0.763	0.315	0.037
#7 Travis d’Arnaud	6.2	8.3	0.231	0.408	0.330	0.738	0.304	0.041
#8 Gio Urshela	5.4	6.9	0.255	0.373	0.310	0.683	0.284	0.022
#9 Orlando Arcia	5.4	7.0	0.217	0.355	0.294	0.649	0.270	0.032

Mets Notable Injuries

Francisco Lindor OUT (SS): Avg: 0.269 SLG:0.493 Last game: 09/17/24. Impact: 3.6
Jeff McNeil OUT (2B/OF): Avg: 0.238 SLG:0.382 Last game: 09/08/24. Impact: 1.9
Dedniel Nunez OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 08/26/24. Impact: 1.8