Mets vs Reds Game Breakdown & Projections – Fri, Apr 5th 2024

Hold onto your baseball caps, folks, because the struggling Mets are packing their bags and jetting off to the Queen City to duke it out with the red-hot Reds at the Great American Ball Park. With the first pitch set to fly at 6:40PM EST, the underdog Mets are looking to claw their way out of a 2.5-game hole in the National League, while the Reds are just a stone’s throw away from the top, trailing by only 1.5 games. The betting lines are buzzing with the over/under set at a lean 4.5, and the Reds are the favored choice with a line at -124, compared to the Mets’ optimistic 104. Both teams are fresh off a victory, the Reds having tamed the Phillies with a 4-1 score and the Mets edging out the Tigers 2-1. Tonight’s weather? A cool 43.0° with a dash of clouds, and a gentle wind from the northwest at 6.9 mph. High humidity at 89% might make the ball a bit slippery, but hey, that’s all part of the game. So, whether you’re a die-hard Mets fan hoping they’ll finally find their groove, or a Reds supporter ready for another victory lap, it’s clear we’re in for a game where, much like the city’s famous chili, the stakes are piled high and the heat is on. Get ready, because when the Mets meet the Reds, it’s not just a game, it’s a full-blown New York state of mind versus Cincinnati-style showdown!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 05, 2024 06:40PM EST

Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati

Weather: Partly cloudy with winds from the NW at 6.9 mph. Temperature is at 43.0° with 89% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	NYM ML	CIN ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+104	-124	9.0	0.5/-0.5
Recent	+107	-128	9.0	0.5/-0.5
Difference	+3	-4	0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

3W-7L

AWAY

108W-131L

48.3% Win Probability

LAST 10

5W-5L

HOME

114W-128L

51.7% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
05/09/23	New York Mets NYM	6	Over	+8.5
05/09/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	7	Over	+8.5
05/10/23	New York Mets NYM	2	Under	-1.5
05/10/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	1	Under	-1.5
05/11/23	New York Mets NYM	0	Over	+0.5
05/11/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	5	Over	+0.5
09/15/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	5	Over	+3.5
09/15/23	New York Mets NYM	3	Over	+3.5
09/16/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	3	Over	+0.5
09/16/23	New York Mets NYM	2	Over	+0.5
09/17/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	4	Over	+7.5
09/17/23	New York Mets NYM	8	Over	+7.5

Mets Vs Over/Under

Reds Vs Over/Under

Jose Quintana

ERA 3.568 | IP 76 | 3W-6L | KO 60

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
03-29-24	vsMIL	3-1L	4.7	6	2	4	Under
09-30-23	vsPHI	4-11W	4.0	7	4	5	Over
09-23-23	@PHI	5-7L	6.0	8	6	10	Over
09-17-23	vsCIN	4-8W	6.7	8	2	2	Over
09-11-23	vsARI	4-3L	5.0	5	2	4	Under
09-05-23	@WAS	11-5W	7.0	4	1	4	Over
08-29-23	vsTEX	2-1L	6.0	3	0	5	Under
08-23-23	@ATL	0-7L	5.3	9	5	5	Under
08-17-23	@STL	4-2W	6.0	3	2	5	Under
08-12-23	vsATL	6-0L	6.0	4	1	4	Under

Hunter Greene

ERA 4.821 | IP 112 | 4W-7L | KO 152

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
03-30-24	vsWAS	7-6L	4.7	5	2	7	Over
10-01-23	@STL	3-4L	5.0	9	4	6	Under
09-26-23	@CLE	11-7W	3.0	8	7	3	Over
09-20-23	vsMIN	5-3L	7.0	3	1	14	Under
09-15-23	@NYM	5-3W	5.7	4	3	6	Under
09-10-23	vsSTL	1-7W	6.0	1	1	9	Under
08-30-23	@SF	4-1W	5.3	3	1	6	Under
08-25-23	@ARI	8-10L	3.7	5	5	4	Over
08-20-23	vsTOR	10-3L	3.0	10	9	4	Over
06-17-23	@HOU	10-3W	6.0	5	2	3	Over

Mets Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/06	@ DET	2-1W	3	1	Under
04/06	@ DET	3-6L	6	0	Push
04/03	@ DET	0-5L	5	0	Under
04/02	@ MIL	1-4L	7	0	Under
04/01	@ MIL	6-7L	12	3	Over
03/31	@ MIL	1-3L	1	1	Under
10/04	@ MIA	1-2L	5	0	Under
10/03	@ PHI	1-9L	2	1	Over
10/02	@ PHI	11-4W	9	3	Over
10/02	@ PHI	4-3W	5	1	Under
09/29	@ MIA	11-2W	12	3	Over
09/29	@ MIA	2-4L	6	2	Under
09/26	vs PHI	2-5L	3	1	Under
09/25	vs PHI	5-7L	9	0	Over
09/24	vs PHI	4-5L	8	2	Push

Reds Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/05	vs PHI	4-1W	6	0	Under
04/04	vs PHI	4-9L	8	0	Over
04/03	vs PHI	6-3W	8	1	Push
04/02	@ WAS	6-5W	14	2	Over
04/01	@ WAS	6-7L	10	2	Over
03/30	@ WAS	8-2W	10	2	Over
10/03	vs STL	3-4L	9	1	Under
10/02	vs STL	6-15L	14	2	Over
10/01	vs STL	19-2W	17	6	Over
09/29	vs CLE	3-4L	8	0	Under
09/28	vs CLE	11-7W	10	5	Over
09/26	@ PIT	4-2W	6	2	Under
09/25	@ PIT	12-13L	16	3	Over
09/24	@ PIT	5-7L	7	1	Over
09/22	@ MIN	3-5L	6	1	Under

Team’s Batting Order

New York Mets	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Brandon Nimmo	11.4	14.9	0.275	0.469	41.8%	88.6%	4.1%
#2 Francisco Lindor	11.4	15.1	0.254	0.472	38.5%	85.6%	5.2%
#3 Pete Alonso	10.6	14.5	0.218	0.506	36.8%	87.4%	8.1%
#4 Francisco Alvarez	8.9	12.0	0.208	0.438	31.1%	74.9%	6.6%
#5 Brett Baty	8.1	10.6	0.214	0.326	30.0%	62.6%	2.6%
#6 Starling Marte	9.4	11.9	0.248	0.324	32.4%	64.8%	1.6%
#7 Jeff McNeil	7.0	8.9	0.27	0.378	36.6%	74.4%	1.7%
#8 Harrison Bader	6.9	8.9	0.232	0.35	29.6%	64.6%	2.2%
#9 DJ Stewart	9.2	12.3	0.236	0.497	36.9%	86.6%	7.0%

Cincinnati Reds	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Jonathan India	8.0	10.7	0.244	0.409	39.6%	80.4%	3.8%
#2 Spencer Steer	8.5	11.1	0.273	0.467	41.0%	87.7%	4.0%
#3 C. Encarnacion-Strand	7.5	9.8	0.27	0.477	35.6%	83.3%	5.9%
#4 Jeimer Candelario	7.6	10.1	0.251	0.473	38.3%	85.6%	4.4%
#5 Santiago Espinal	6.7	8.8	0.25	0.338	34.2%	68.0%	0.9%
#6 Elly De La Cruz	8.3	10.7	0.234	0.409	32.5%	73.5%	3.4%
#7 Stuart Fairchild	5.7	7.6	0.228	0.388	37.0%	75.8%	2.3%
#8 Luke Maile	6.0	8.0	0.235	0.391	34.1%	73.2%	3.4%
#9 Will Benson	6.6	8.6	0.276	0.5	42.0%	92.0%	3.8%