Mets vs Marlins Game Breakdown

Get ready for a sizzling showdown at LoanDepot Park tonight as the New York Mets, holding a solid 50-48 record, roll into Miami to clash with the 35-64 Marlins under the lights at 06:40 PM EST. With the Mets looking to claw back from a 12-game deficit and the Marlins swimming upstream at 27.5 games behind in the National League standings, this game is set to be a barnburner. The stakes are high, the betting lines are buzzing with the Mets favored at -161, and the over/under tantalizingly set at 8.5. Adding a dash of unpredictability, the weather promises some patchy rain and breezy conditions, perfect for some unexpected twists. After yesterday’s face-off where the Marlins bit back with a 4-2 victory, tonight’s rematch is anyone’s game. So, as the Mets try to reel in a win against the feisty Marlins, let’s see which team can truly make a splash in tonight’s game!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: July 22, 2024 06:40PM EST

Location: LoanDepot Park, Miami

Weather: Patchy rain nearby with winds from the SSE at 11.2 mph. Temperature is at 86.1° with 66% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	NYM ML	MIA ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-161	+135	8.5	-1.5/1.5
Recent	-145	+122	8.5	-1.5/1.5
Difference	+16	-13	0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

7W-3L

AWAY

132W-153L

59.2% Win Probability

LAST 10

4W-6L

HOME

138W-152L

40.8% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
05/17/24	New York Mets NYM	0	Under	-0.5
05/17/24	Miami Marlins MIA	8	Under	-0.5
05/18/24	New York Mets NYM	9	Over	+10.5
05/18/24	Miami Marlins MIA	10	Over	+10.5
05/19/24	New York Mets NYM	7	Over	+1.5
05/19/24	Miami Marlins MIA	3	Over	+1.5
06/11/24	Miami Marlins MIA	4	Under	-2.5
06/11/24	New York Mets NYM	2	Under	-2.5
06/12/24	Miami Marlins MIA	4	Over	+5.5
06/12/24	New York Mets NYM	10	Over	+5.5
06/13/24	Miami Marlins MIA	2	Under	-3.5
06/13/24	New York Mets NYM	3	Under	-3.5
07/19/24	New York Mets NYM	4	Over	+1.5
07/19/24	Miami Marlins MIA	6	Over	+1.5
07/20/24	New York Mets NYM	1	Under	-7.5
07/20/24	Miami Marlins MIA	0	Under	-7.5
07/21/24	New York Mets NYM	2	Under	-2.5
07/21/24	Miami Marlins MIA	4	Under	-2.5
03/30/23	New York Mets NYM	5	Under	-0.5
03/30/23	Miami Marlins MIA	3	Under	-0.5
03/31/23	New York Mets NYM	1	Under	-5.5
03/31/23	Miami Marlins MIA	2	Under	-5.5
04/01/23	New York Mets NYM	6	Under	-0.5
04/01/23	Miami Marlins MIA	2	Under	-0.5
04/02/23	New York Mets NYM	5	Under	-2.5
04/02/23	Miami Marlins MIA	1	Under	-2.5
04/07/23	Miami Marlins MIA	3	Over	+3.5
04/07/23	New York Mets NYM	9	Over	+3.5
04/08/23	Miami Marlins MIA	2	Under	-1.5
04/08/23	New York Mets NYM	5	Under	-1.5
04/09/23	Miami Marlins MIA	7	Over	+0.5
04/09/23	New York Mets NYM	2	Over	+0.5
09/18/23	New York Mets NYM	2	Under	-5.5
09/18/23	Miami Marlins MIA	1	Under	-5.5
09/19/23	New York Mets NYM	3	Under	-1.5
09/19/23	Miami Marlins MIA	4	Under	-1.5
09/20/23	New York Mets NYM	8	Over	+2.5
09/20/23	Miami Marlins MIA	3	Over	+2.5
09/27/23	Miami Marlins MIA	4	Under	-2.5
09/27/23	New York Mets NYM	2	Under	-2.5
09/27/23	Miami Marlins MIA	2	Over	+4.5
09/27/23	New York Mets NYM	11	Over	+4.5
10/02/23	Miami Marlins MIA	0	Under	-7.5
10/02/23	New York Mets NYM	1	Under	-7.5

Mets Vs Over/Under

Marlins Vs Over/Under

David Peterson

ERA 3.092 | IP 43.7 | 4.0W-0.0L | KO 32.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
07-11-24	vsWAS	0-7W	6.0	4	0	5	Under
07-06-24	@PIT	5-2W	4.3	5	2	5	Under
07-01-24	@WAS	9-7W	6.3	7	2	2	Over
06-25-24	vsNYY	7-9W	4.3	3	1	8	Over
06-17-24	@TEX	14-2W	6.0	4	2	6	Over
06-12-24	vsMIA	4-10W	5.0	8	4	1	Over
06-04-24	@WAS	6-3W	6.7	5	2	2	Over
05-29-24	vsLAD	10-3L	5.0	7	3	3	Over
10-02-23	vsMIA	0-1W	6.3	4	0	8	Under
09-21-23	@PHI	4-5L	4.0	5	4	7	Over

Yonny Chirinos

ERA 5.76 | IP 25.0 | 0.0W-1.0L | KO 21.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
07-12-24	@CIN	4-7L	5.7	8	7	1	Over
07-06-24	vsCWS	3-4W	5.0	6	3	5	Under
06-30-24	@PHI	6-7L	4.3	9	3	4	Over
06-25-24	@KC	2-1W	5.0	3	1	5	Under
06-19-24	vsSTL	3-4W	5.0	8	2	6	Under
08-19-23	@SF	5-6W	4.0	7	4	4	Over
08-13-23	@NYM	6-7W	4.7	7	6	5	Over
08-08-23	@PIT	8-6L	5.0	7	6	5	Over
08-02-23	@LAA	5-12W	5.0	6	3	5	Over
07-28-23	@MIL	7-10W	3.7	6	4	3	Over

Mets Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
07/23	vs MIA	2-4L	8	0	Under
07/22	vs MIA	1-0W	6	0	Under
07/21	vs MIA	4-6L	8	2	Over
07/15	@ COL	7-3W	6	1	Over
07/14	@ COL	7-6W	10	5	Over
07/13	@ WAS	7-0W	9	0	Under
07/12	@ WAS	6-2W	12	1	Under
07/11	@ WAS	7-5W	11	2	Over
07/10	vs PIT	2-8L	8	1	Over
07/09	vs PIT	3-2W	9	0	Under
07/08	vs PIT	5-2W	11	0	Under
07/07	vs PIT	2-14L	5	1	Over
07/06	vs WAS	0-1L	1	0	Under
07/05	vs WAS	5-7L	5	3	Over
07/04	vs WAS	7-2W	11	2	Over

Marlins Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
07/23	@ NYM	4-2W	9	2	Under
07/22	@ NYM	0-1L	4	0	Under
07/21	@ NYM	6-4W	10	1	Over
07/15	vs CIN	6-10L	15	2	Over
07/14	vs CIN	4-7L	11	1	Over
07/13	vs HOU	3-6L	11	2	Over
07/12	vs HOU	1-9L	6	0	Over
07/11	vs HOU	3-4L	6	2	Under
07/09	@ CWS	7-4W	7	1	Over
07/08	@ CWS	4-3W	9	1	Under
07/07	@ CWS	2-3L	7	0	Under
07/06	@ BOS	5-6L	8	1	Over
07/05	@ BOS	2-7L	9	0	Over
07/04	@ BOS	3-8L	7	2	Over
07/02	vs PHI	6-7L	11	1	Over

Team’s Batting Order

New York Mets	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	wOBA	HR/Rate
#1 Francisco Lindor	10.3	13.5	0.250	0.446	0.367	0.814	0.331	0.043
#2 Brandon Nimmo	9.6	12.9	0.246	0.448	0.428	0.876	0.348	0.046
#3 J.D. Martinez	8.5	11.2	0.257	0.443	0.387	0.830	0.335	0.040
#4 Pete Alonso	9.0	11.9	0.239	0.444	0.360	0.804	0.327	0.048
#5 Mark Vientos	8.0	10.5	0.298	0.548	0.388	0.936	0.379	0.064
#6 DJ Stewart	7.3	9.9	0.183	0.317	0.415	0.732	0.294	0.035
#7 Francisco Alvarez	7.0	9.2	0.292	0.472	0.410	0.882	0.355	0.028
#8 Jeff McNeil	6.3	8.2	0.219	0.331	0.298	0.629	0.263	0.023
#9 Jose Iglesias	6.0	7.7	0.372	0.570	0.430	1.000	0.407	0.035

Miami Marlins	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	wOBA	HR/Rate
#1 Jazz Chisholm Jr.	7.8	10.0	0.247	0.409	0.349	0.758	0.310	0.036
#2 Bryan De La Cruz	7.5	9.7	0.240	0.406	0.307	0.713	0.295	0.041
#3 Jake Burger	7.8	10.2	0.228	0.390	0.290	0.679	0.282	0.041
#4 Josh Bell	7.3	9.5	0.227	0.352	0.320	0.672	0.279	0.025
#5 Otto Lopez	6.6	8.4	0.249	0.347	0.301	0.647	0.270	0.017
#6 Jesus Sanchez	7.0	9.0	0.246	0.421	0.318	0.739	0.306	0.039
#7 Xavier Edwards	6.0	7.4	0.328	0.393	0.459	0.852	0.342	0.000
#8 Emmanuel Rivera	5.3	7.0	0.211	0.250	0.349	0.599	0.250	0.000
#9 Ali Sanchez	5.2	6.2	0.250	0.250	0.357	0.607	0.255	0.000

Mets Notable Injuries

David Peterson OUT (SP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 07/13/24. Impact: 7.0
Starling Marte OUT (OF): Avg: 0.278 SLG:0.416 Last game: 06/24/24. Impact: 3.2
Reed Garrett OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 07/11/24. Impact: 0.8
Drew Smith OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 06/25/24. Impact: 1.0