Mets vs Pirates Game Breakdown

Get ready for a showdown at PNC Park as the New York Mets, barely hanging on to their playoff dreams, clash with the Pittsburgh Pirates, who are also scrapping for every win in the National League. The stakes are as high as the summer humidity, with the first pitch set to fly at 06:40 PM EST. Both teams are looking to rebound from narrow defeats, and with the betting lines drawing a close match and the scoreboard expected to hover around 7.5, this game is anybody’s ballgame. The overcast skies and a gentle breeze from the west might just cool down the heated contest, but don’t expect any chill from the players. As the Mets and Pirates prepare to cross bats, it’s clear that only one will sail smoothly into victory while the other walks the plank!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: July 05, 2024 06:40PM EST

Location: PNC Park, Pittsburgh

Weather: Overcast with winds from the WNW at 5.6 mph. Temperature is at 78.1° with 76% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	NYM ML	PIT ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+106	-126	7.5	1.5/-1.5
Recent	+113	-135	8.0	1.5/-1.5
Difference	+7	-9	+0.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

6W-4L

AWAY

129W-149L

46.9% Win Probability

LAST 10

4W-6L

HOME

129W-153L

53.1% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
04/15/24	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	3	Over	+1.5
04/15/24	New York Mets NYM	6	Over	+1.5
04/16/24	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	1	Under	-3.5
04/16/24	New York Mets NYM	3	Under	-3.5
04/17/24	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	1	Over	+2.5
04/17/24	New York Mets NYM	9	Over	+2.5
06/09/23	New York Mets NYM	7	Over	+13.5
06/09/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	14	Over	+13.5
06/10/23	New York Mets NYM	5	Under	-1.5
06/10/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	1	Under	-1.5
06/11/23	New York Mets NYM	1	Under	-4.5
06/11/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	2	Under	-4.5
08/14/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	2	Over	+1.5
08/14/23	New York Mets NYM	7	Over	+1.5
08/15/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	7	Over	+3.5
08/15/23	New York Mets NYM	4	Over	+3.5
08/16/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	3	Over	+3.5
08/16/23	New York Mets NYM	8	Over	+3.5

Mets Vs Over/Under

Pirates Vs Over/Under

Luis Severino

ERA 3.699 | IP 97.3 | 5.0W-2.0L | KO 74.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
06-30-24	vsHOU	10-5L	7.0	8	4	3	Over
06-23-24	@CHC	5-2W	6.0	3	0	10	Under
06-18-24	@TEX	7-6W	6.3	8	6	1	Over
06-13-24	vsMIA	2-3W	6.0	7	1	2	Under
06-05-24	@WAS	9-1W	8.0	7	1	4	Over
05-31-24	vsARI	9-10W	5.3	6	5	4	Over
05-25-24	vsSF	7-2L	7.0	2	1	6	Over
05-18-24	@MIA	9-10L	6.7	6	5	3	Over
05-12-24	vsATL	3-4W	5.0	4	2	4	Under
05-05-24	@TB	6-7L	5.0	4	4	6	Over

Paul Skenes

ERA 2.064 | IP 52.3 | 4.0W-0.0L | KO 70.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
06-29-24	@ATL	1-2L	6.0	6	1	9	Under
06-23-24	vsTB	3-1L	7.0	6	1	8	Under
06-17-24	vsCIN	1-4W	6.0	6	1	7	Under
06-11-24	@STL	2-1W	6.3	5	0	8	Under
06-05-24	vsLAD	6-10W	5.0	6	3	8	Over
05-29-24	@DET	10-2W	6.0	3	2	9	Over
05-23-24	vsSF	7-6L	6.0	6	1	3	Over
05-17-24	@CHC	9-3W	6.0	0	0	11	Over
05-11-24	vsCHC	9-10W	4.0	6	3	7	Over

Mets Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
07/06	vs WAS	0-1L	1	0	Under
07/05	vs WAS	5-7L	5	3	Over
07/04	vs WAS	7-2W	11	2	Over
07/03	vs WAS	9-7W	12	2	Over
07/02	@ HOU	5-10L	5	1	Over
07/01	@ HOU	6-9L	11	1	Over
06/30	@ HOU	7-2W	9	3	Over
06/28	@ NYY	12-2W	12	3	Over
06/27	@ NYY	9-7W	12	4	Over
06/25	vs CHC	5-2W	9	3	Under
06/24	vs CHC	1-8L	7	1	Over
06/23	vs CHC	11-1W	14	3	Over
06/21	vs TEX	3-5L	5	1	Push
06/20	vs TEX	7-6W	10	2	Over
06/19	vs TEX	14-2W	22	2	Over

Pirates Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
07/06	@ STL	2-3L	7	1	Under
07/05	@ STL	5-4W	11	1	Over
07/04	@ STL	4-7L	7	2	Over
07/02	vs ATL	4-2W	6	2	Under
07/01	vs ATL	1-2L	7	0	Under
06/30	vs ATL	1-6L	6	0	Under
06/28	vs CIN	6-1W	10	2	Under
06/27	vs CIN	9-5W	10	2	Over
06/26	vs CIN	5-11L	10	1	Over
06/25	@ TB	1-3L	3	1	Under
06/24	@ TB	4-3W	5	1	Under
06/23	@ TB	3-10L	5	1	Over
06/21	@ CIN	1-0W	3	1	Under
06/20	@ CIN	1-2L	4	1	Under
06/19	@ CIN	4-1W	8	0	Under

Team’s Batting Order

New York Mets	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	wOBA	HR/Rate
#1 Francisco Lindor	7.5	9.9	0.246	0.447	0.341	0.788	0.324	0.043
#2 Brandon Nimmo	6.7	9.1	0.245	0.443	0.433	0.876	0.348	0.044
#3 J.D. Martinez	7.0	9.3	0.272	0.488	0.399	0.887	0.357	0.047
#4 Pete Alonso	7.1	9.4	0.242	0.468	0.370	0.838	0.339	0.055
#5 Francisco Alvarez	6.5	8.6	0.291	0.496	0.393	0.889	0.359	0.034
#6 DJ Stewart	5.8	7.9	0.180	0.328	0.414	0.742	0.298	0.039
#7 Mark Vientos	5.4	7.2	0.297	0.574	0.385	0.959	0.387	0.074
#8 Jeff McNeil	5.0	6.4	0.215	0.300	0.296	0.596	0.250	0.015
#9 Ben Gamel	5.2	6.9	0.167	0.333	0.333	0.667	0.274	0.000

Pittsburgh Pirates	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	wOBA	HR/Rate
#1 Andrew McCutchen	7.2	9.5	0.229	0.396	0.378	0.775	0.313	0.044
#2 Bryan Reynolds	8.0	10.4	0.276	0.471	0.376	0.848	0.344	0.040
#3 Oneil Cruz	8.2	10.7	0.240	0.428	0.318	0.747	0.307	0.041
#4 Edward Olivares	5.6	7.4	0.227	0.337	0.331	0.669	0.277	0.029
#5 Rowdy Tellez	6.7	8.7	0.244	0.361	0.322	0.683	0.283	0.024
#6 Nick Gonzales	5.5	7.2	0.276	0.425	0.339	0.764	0.315	0.029
#7 Ke’Bryan Hayes	5.3	6.8	0.234	0.307	0.329	0.636	0.265	0.013
#8 Joey Bart	5.1	6.8	0.250	0.471	0.382	0.853	0.344	0.059
#9 Jack Suwinski	6.3	8.4	0.180	0.317	0.293	0.610	0.254	0.034

Mets Notable Injuries

Starling Marte OUT (OF): Avg: 0.278 SLG:0.416 Last game: 06/24/24. Impact: 3.2
Edwin Diaz OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 06/25/24. Impact: 1.0
Sean Reid-Foley OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 06/21/24. Impact: 0.9
Drew Smith OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 06/25/24. Impact: 1.0

Pirates Notable Injuries

Jared Jones OUT (SP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 07/05/24. Impact: 7.3
Martin Perez OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 07/06/24. Impact: 3.8
Hunter Stratton OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 06/15/24. Impact: 0.8
David Bednar OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 06/21/24. Impact: 1.3