Mets vs Rays Game Breakdown

Get ready for a showdown that’s as electric as a New York subway car at rush hour! The New York Mets, with a nearly balanced 16W-17L record, are zipping down to the sunny climes of Tropicana Field to face off against the Tampa Bay Rays, who are sitting pretty close in the standings at 16W-18L. It’s a midday clash with the first pitch hurling at 01:40 PM EST, promising a mix of strategy, speed, and sliders. Both teams are chasing the tail of their respective conferences, each 6.5 games back and hungry for a win. With the betting world slightly favoring the Rays and an over/under that suggests pitchers might dominate, today’s game is set against a backdrop of partly cloudy skies and a brisk breeze that could play tricks with the ball. Fresh from a recent face-off where the Rays edged out the Mets, the stage is set for a rematch. Will the Mets ‘Met-amorphose’ into victors, or will the Rays shine a bit brighter in their home field advantage?

Game Breakdown

Game Time: May 05, 2024 01:40PM EST

Location: Tropicana Field, Tampa Bay

Weather: Partly cloudy with winds from the NNE at 11.9 mph. Temperature is at 44.6° with 53% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	NYM ML	TB ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+107	-128	7.5	1.5/-1.5
Recent	-109	-111	7.5	1.5/-1.5
Difference	-216	+17	0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

4W-6L

AWAY

115W-138L

52.2% Win Probability

LAST 10

4W-6L

HOME

165W-96L

47.8% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
05/03/24	New York Mets NYM	8	Over	+10.5
05/03/24	Tampa Bay Rays TB	10	Over	+10.5
05/04/24	New York Mets NYM	1	Under	-3.5
05/04/24	Tampa Bay Rays TB	3	Under	-3.5
05/16/23	Tampa Bay Rays TB	8	Over	+5.5
05/16/23	New York Mets NYM	5	Over	+5.5
05/17/23	Tampa Bay Rays TB	7	Over	+7.5
05/17/23	New York Mets NYM	8	Over	+7.5
05/18/23	Tampa Bay Rays TB	2	Under	-2.5
05/18/23	New York Mets NYM	3	Under	-2.5

Mets Vs Over/Under

Rays Vs Over/Under

Luis Severino

ERA 3.086 | IP 35.0 | 2.0W-2.0L | KO 31.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-29-24	vsCHC	3-1L	8.0	1	1	5	Under
04-23-24	@SF	1-5L	6.0	5	3	5	Under
04-17-24	vsPIT	1-9W	6.0	5	1	4	Over
04-12-24	vsKC	1-6W	5.0	1	1	4	Under
04-06-24	@CIN	6-9L	5.0	3	2	7	Over
03-30-24	vsMIL	7-6L	5.0	12	6	6	Over
09-08-23	@MIL	8-2L	4.0	4	2	5	Over
09-02-23	@HOU	5-4L	4.0	6	4	3	Over
08-28-23	@DET	4-1L	7.0	5	0	8	Under
08-23-23	@WAS	1-9W	6.7	1	0	2	Over

Ryan Pepiot

ERA 3.115 | IP 34.7 | 3.0W-2.0L | KO 38.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-29-24	@MIL	1-0W	6.0	2	0	7	Under
04-23-24	vsDET	4-2L	6.0	3	1	4	Under
04-18-24	vsLAA	1-2W	6.0	3	1	7	Under
04-13-24	vsSF	11-2L	5.0	5	4	6	Over
04-07-24	@COL	3-2W	6.0	3	0	11	Under
04-01-24	vsTEX	9-3L	5.7	4	6	3	Over
10-01-23	@SF	5-2L	3.0	2	2	3	Under
09-26-23	@COL	1-4W	6.0	5	1	9	Under
09-19-23	@DET	2-3W	6.0	5	1	4	Under
09-13-23	@SD	6-1L	6.0	6	4	5	Under

Mets Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
05/06	vs TB	1-3L	6	0	Under
05/05	vs TB	8-10L	10	2	Over
05/04	@ CHC	7-6W	8	0	Over
05/03	@ CHC	0-1L	5	0	Under
05/02	@ CHC	4-2W	7	1	Under
05/01	@ CHC	1-3L	4	1	Under
04/30	@ STL	4-2W	8	2	Under
04/29	@ STL	4-7L	7	1	Over
04/28	@ STL	2-4L	8	1	Under
04/26	vs SF	8-2W	10	3	Over
04/25	vs SF	1-5L	9	0	Under
04/24	vs SF	2-5L	4	1	Under
04/23	vs LAD	0-10L	7	0	Over
04/22	vs LAD	6-4W	8	1	Over
04/21	vs LAD	9-4W	14	2	Over

Rays Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
05/06	@ NYM	3-1W	7	0	Under
05/05	@ NYM	10-8W	13	1	Over
05/03	vs MIL	1-7L	5	0	Over
05/02	vs MIL	2-8L	5	1	Over
05/01	vs MIL	1-0W	6	0	Under
04/30	vs CWS	2-4L	7	1	Under
04/29	vs CWS	7-8L	11	2	Over
04/28	vs CWS	4-9L	9	0	Over
04/26	@ DET	7-5W	11	2	Over
04/25	@ DET	2-4L	7	1	Under
04/24	@ DET	1-7L	6	1	Over
04/23	vs NYY	4-5L	5	0	Over
04/22	vs NYY	2-0W	9	0	Under
04/21	vs NYY	3-5L	14	1	Over
04/20	@ LAA	2-1W	5	0	Under

Team’s Batting Order

New York Mets	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Brandon Nimmo	7.4	10.1	0.218	0.37	44.5%	81.5%	2.5%
#2 Starling Marte	6.7	8.6	0.275	0.408	33.3%	74.2%	3.3%
#3 Francisco Lindor	7.3	9.7	0.202	0.372	31.0%	68.2%	3.9%
#4 Pete Alonso	6.9	9.2	0.214	0.437	34.9%	78.6%	6.3%
#5 DJ Stewart	7.3	10.1	0.196	0.446	51.8%	96.4%	7.1%
#6 Jeff McNeil	5.7	7.3	0.239	0.319	35.4%	67.3%	0.9%
#7 Harrison Bader	5.4	6.8	0.272	0.326	32.6%	65.2%	1.1%
#8 Brett Baty	5.4	7.0	0.27	0.38	37.0%	75.0%	3.0%
#9 Omar Narvaez	4.1	5.4	0.146	0.195	19.5%	39.0%	0.0%

Tampa Bay Rays	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Yandy Diaz	7.7	10.0	0.227	0.288	31.8%	60.6%	0.8%
#2 Richie Palacios	6.6	8.5	0.311	0.473	52.7%	100.0%	4.1%
#3 Isaac Paredes	8.1	10.6	0.293	0.5	42.2%	92.2%	6.0%
#4 Randy Arozarena	7.3	9.7	0.14	0.256	26.4%	52.1%	3.3%
#5 Amed Rosario	6.2	7.7	0.309	0.427	33.6%	76.4%	1.8%
#6 Jose Caballero	6.4	8.1	0.269	0.398	32.4%	72.2%	1.9%
#7 Alex Jackson	3.9	6.9	0.0	0.0	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#8 Jonny DeLuca	4.7	6.4	0.143	0.143	14.3%	28.6%	0.0%
#9 Jose Siri	5.7	7.5	0.18	0.292	30.3%	59.6%	2.2%