Phillies vs Padres Game Breakdown & Projections – Fri, Apr 26th 2024

Get ready for a sizzling showdown at Petco Park tonight as the Philadelphia Phillies, boasting a solid 16W-10L record, roll into San Diego to face the .500 Padres at 09:40PM EST. With both teams neck and neck in the National League, trailing by a mere 2.5 games, every pitch counts in this nail-biter. The Phillies are riding high on a recent 5-0 shutout against Cincinnati, while the Padres are itching to rebound from a narrow 9-10 scrape with Colorado. The odds are almost too close to call, with the over/under teasing at 7.5. As the partly cloudy skies loom and the winds whip from the SW, tonight’s game promises intense action. So, whether you’re a fan of the Fightin’ Phils or the Swinging Friars, this matchup is sure to be a grand slam of excitement!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 26, 2024 09:40PM EST

Location: Petco Park, San Diego

Weather: Partly cloudy with winds from the SW at 9.4 mph. Temperature is at 57.9° with 87% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	PHI ML	SD ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-112	-108	7.5	-1.5/1.5
Recent	-113	-107	7.5	-1.5/1.5
Difference	-1	+1	0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

8W-2L

AWAY

122W-127L

53.1% Win Probability

LAST 10

5W-5L

HOME

135W-117L

46.9% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
07/14/23	San Diego Padres SD	8	Over	+3.5
07/14/23	Philadelphia Phillies PHI	3	Over	+3.5
07/15/23	San Diego Padres SD	4	Over	+2.5
07/15/23	Philadelphia Phillies PHI	6	Over	+2.5
07/15/23	San Diego Padres SD	4	Over	+5.5
07/15/23	Philadelphia Phillies PHI	9	Over	+5.5
07/16/23	San Diego Padres SD	6	Over	+5.5
07/16/23	Philadelphia Phillies PHI	7	Over	+5.5
09/04/23	Philadelphia Phillies PHI	9	Over	+8.5
09/04/23	San Diego Padres SD	7	Over	+8.5
09/05/23	Philadelphia Phillies PHI	0	Over	+0.5
09/05/23	San Diego Padres SD	8	Over	+0.5
09/06/23	Philadelphia Phillies PHI	5	Under	-1.5
09/06/23	San Diego Padres SD	1	Under	-1.5

Phillies Vs Over/Under

Padres Vs Over/Under

Aaron Nola

ERA 3.447 | IP 31.3 | 3.0W-1.0L | KO 26.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-21-24	vsCWS	2-8W	8.0	4	2	7	Over
04-15-24	vsCOL	1-2W	7.3	4	1	9	Under
04-10-24	@STL	4-3W	6.0	3	2	3	Under
04-05-24	@WAS	4-0W	5.7	2	0	4	Under
03-30-24	vsATL	12-4L	4.3	12	7	3	Over
09-26-23	vsPIT	2-3W	6.7	4	1	8	Under
09-20-23	@ATL	6-5W	6.0	6	2	8	Over
09-15-23	@STL	5-4W	4.7	7	3	1	Over
09-09-23	vsMIA	4-8W	4.3	7	4	6	Over
09-02-23	@MIL	5-7L	4.7	8	7	5	Over

Joe Musgrove

ERA 4.709 | IP 28.7 | 3.0W-2.0L | KO 21.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-21-24	vsTOR	3-6W	7.0	5	3	3	Over
04-15-24	@MIL	7-3W	6.0	7	3	3	Over
04-09-24	vsCHC	5-1L	4.0	5	4	5	Under
04-03-24	vsSTL	2-3W	6.0	5	1	7	Under
03-29-24	vsSF	8-3L	5.7	8	4	3	Over
07-28-23	vsTEX	1-7W	6.0	4	0	5	Over
07-23-23	@DET	1-3L	6.0	7	3	6	Under
07-18-23	@TOR	9-1W	6.0	5	1	7	Over
07-04-23	vsLAA	5-8W	7.0	3	1	11	Over
06-29-23	@PIT	4-5L	6.0	7	2	6	Over

Phillies Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/27	vs CIN	5-0W	11	1	Under
04/26	vs CIN	4-7L	11	0	Over
04/25	vs CIN	1-8L	5	0	Over
04/24	vs CIN	7-0W	9	1	Under
04/23	@ CWS	8-2W	11	1	Over
04/22	@ CWS	9-5W	12	1	Over
04/21	@ CWS	7-0W	7	3	Under
04/19	@ COL	7-6W	12	3	Over
04/18	@ COL	5-0W	7	2	Under
04/17	@ COL	2-1W	6	0	Under
04/16	@ PIT	2-8L	8	1	Over
04/15	@ PIT	4-3W	9	1	Under
04/14	@ PIT	2-5L	7	0	Under
04/13	@ PIT	5-1W	7	3	Under
04/12	vs STL	4-3W	8	0	Under

Padres Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/27	vs COL	9-10L	11	2	Over
04/26	vs COL	5-2W	8	0	Under
04/25	vs COL	4-7L	12	0	Over
04/24	vs COL	3-1W	9	0	Under
04/23	@ TOR	6-3W	6	1	Over
04/22	@ TOR	2-5L	9	0	Under
04/21	@ TOR	1-5L	5	1	Under
04/19	vs MIL	0-1L	5	0	Under
04/18	vs MIL	6-3W	10	1	Over
04/17	vs MIL	7-3W	12	0	Over
04/16	vs LAD	6-3W	8	1	Over
04/15	vs LAD	2-5L	7	0	Under
04/14	vs LAD	8-7W	10	4	Over
04/12	@ CHC	10-2W	12	2	Over
04/11	@ CHC	1-5L	4	1	Under

Team’s Batting Order

Philadelphia Phillies	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Kyle Schwarber	7.5	10.2	0.194	0.378	36.7%	74.5%	6.1%
#2 Trea Turner	9.6	12.2	0.336	0.477	42.1%	89.7%	1.9%
#3 Bryce Harper	7.6	10.2	0.256	0.488	40.2%	89.0%	6.1%
#4 Alec Bohm	6.7	8.9	0.333	0.556	48.9%	104.4%	3.3%
#5 J.T. Realmuto	8.1	10.5	0.235	0.365	30.6%	67.1%	3.5%
#6 Brandon Marsh	6.2	8.0	0.27	0.514	33.8%	85.1%	6.8%
#7 Nick Castellanos	6.8	8.6	0.177	0.198	25.0%	44.8%	0.0%
#8 Bryson Stott	5.1	6.6	0.233	0.315	34.2%	65.8%	1.4%
#9 Johan Rojas	5.7	7.0	0.25	0.309	33.8%	64.7%	0.0%

San Diego Padres	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Xander Bogaerts	7.6	9.9	0.208	0.297	30.7%	60.4%	2.0%
#2 Fernando Tatis Jr.	8.4	11.1	0.25	0.48	38.0%	86.0%	6.0%
#3 Jake Cronenworth	6.9	9.2	0.233	0.378	37.8%	75.6%	3.3%
#4 Manny Machado	7.8	10.0	0.258	0.393	32.6%	71.9%	3.4%
#5 Jurickson Profar	6.1	8.2	0.293	0.476	47.6%	95.1%	3.7%
#6 Ha-Seong Kim	6.4	8.5	0.255	0.468	40.4%	87.2%	4.3%
#7 Jackson Merrill	6.2	7.9	0.325	0.412	43.8%	85.0%	1.2%
#8 Luis Campusano	5.9	7.7	0.284	0.392	33.8%	73.0%	1.4%
#9 Graham Pauley	5.1	7.1	0.1	0.25	10.0%	35.0%	5.0%