Pirates vs Phillies Game Breakdown & Projections – Thu, Apr 11th 2024

Listen up, sports junkies! The heat is on as the swashbuckling Pittsburgh Pirates, boasting an impressive 9W-3L record, set sail to invade Citizens Bank Park, the home turf of our gritty 6W-6L Philadelphia Phillies. The first pitch is set to fly at 06:40PM EST, under an overcast sky with the wind blowing from the ENE at 9.4 mph, making the 59.0° temperature feel just a tad cooler. The Pirates, currently at the helm of the National League conference, have a betting line of 125, while our Phillies, trailing by 2.0 games, are at -149. The over/under is set at a tantalizing 8.5. The Phillies are riding high after their recent 4-3 triumph over STL, while the Pirates are looking to bounce back from their 3-5 stumble against DET. With the humidity at 83%, we’re all set for a steamy showdown. So, buckle up folks, because tonight, we’re not just playing ball, we’re sailing into a storm where the Pirates are plundering and the Phillies are fighting back. It’s not just a game, it’s a battle on the diamond sea!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 11, 2024 06:40PM EST

Location: Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia

Weather: Overcast with winds from the ENE at 9.4 mph. Temperature is at 59.0° with 83% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	PIT ML	PHI ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+125	-149	8.5	1.5/-1.5
Recent	+121	-144	9.0	1.5/-1.5
Difference	-4	+5	+0.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

7W-3L

AWAY

91W-154L

45.2% Win Probability

LAST 10

6W-4L

HOME

142W-101L

54.8% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
07/28/23	Philadelphia Phillies PHI	2	Under	-5.5
07/28/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	1	Under	-5.5
07/29/23	Philadelphia Phillies PHI	6	Over	+4.5
07/29/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	7	Over	+4.5
07/30/23	Philadelphia Phillies PHI	4	Over	+1.5
07/30/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	6	Over	+1.5
09/26/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	2	Under	-3.5
09/26/23	Philadelphia Phillies PHI	3	Under	-3.5
09/27/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	6	Over	+4.5
09/27/23	Philadelphia Phillies PHI	7	Over	+4.5
09/28/23	Pittsburgh Pirates PIT	3	Under	-3.5
09/28/23	Philadelphia Phillies PHI	2	Under	-3.5

Pirates Vs Over/Under

Phillies Vs Over/Under

Jared Jones

ERA N/A | IP 0 | 0W-0L | KO 0

No notable injuries to report

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over

Ranger Suarez

ERA 4.176 | IP 125.0 | 4.0W-6.0L | KO 119.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-10-24	@STL	4-3W	6.0	3	2	3	Under
04-05-24	@WAS	4-0W	5.7	2	0	4	Under
03-30-24	vsATL	12-4L	4.3	12	7	3	Over
09-26-23	vsPIT	2-3W	6.7	4	1	8	Under
09-20-23	@ATL	6-5W	6.0	6	2	8	Over
09-15-23	@STL	5-4W	4.7	7	3	1	Push
09-09-23	vsMIA	4-8W	4.3	7	4	6	Over
09-02-23	@MIL	5-7L	4.7	8	7	5	Over
08-27-23	vsSTL	0-3W	7.0	1	0	9	Under
08-21-23	vsSF	4-10W	7.0	7	2	5	Over
04-06-24	@WAS	5-2W	6.0	4	2	4	Under
03-31-24	vsATL	4-5W	5.0	3	3	7	Push
09-27-23	vsPIT	6-7W	4.7	9	6	4	Over
09-21-23	vsNYM	4-5W	6.7	5	4	6	Push
09-16-23	@STL	6-1W	6.0	4	1	5	Under
09-10-23	vsMIA	5-4L	6.3	2	3	10	Push
09-03-23	@MIL	4-2W	4.0	5	2	5	Under
08-13-23	vsMIN	3-0L	6.3	6	2	8	Under
08-08-23	vsWAS	5-4L	5.7	6	2	5	Push
08-01-23	@MIA	3-1W	6.3	10	1	3	Under

Pirates Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/11	@ DET	3-5L	8	2	Under
04/10	@ DET	7-4W	12	1	Over
04/09	@ BAL	3-2W	7	0	Under
04/08	@ BAL	5-4W	11	1	Push
04/07	@ BAL	2-5L	6	2	Under
04/06	vs WAS	7-4W	11	1	Over
04/05	vs WAS	3-5L	4	1	Under
04/03	vs WAS	8-4W	15	0	Over
04/02	vs MIA	9-7W	11	1	Over
04/01	vs MIA	9-3W	16	0	Over
03/31	vs MIA	7-2W	10	0	Push
03/30	vs MIA	6-5W	9	3	Over
10/03	@ MIA	3-0W	6	0	Under
10/02	@ MIA	3-7L	12	0	Over
10/01	@ MIA	3-4L	9	0	Under

Phillies Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/12	vs STL	4-3W	8	0	Under
04/11	vs STL	0-3L	8	0	Under
04/10	vs STL	5-3W	10	1	Under
04/09	vs WAS	2-3L	5	1	Under
04/08	vs WAS	5-2W	9	1	Under
04/07	vs WAS	4-0W	9	0	Under
04/05	@ CIN	1-4L	6	1	Under
04/04	@ CIN	9-4W	9	4	Over
04/03	@ CIN	3-6L	7	0	Push
04/02	@ ATL	5-4W	9	1	Push
04/01	@ ATL	4-12L	8	1	Over
03/31	@ ATL	3-9L	5	1	Over
10/03	vs NYM	9-1W	12	2	Over
10/02	vs NYM	3-4L	7	0	Under
10/02	vs NYM	4-11L	8	1	Over

Team’s Batting Order

Pittsburgh Pirates	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Connor Joe	8.0	10.6	0.244	0.416	38.4%	80.0%	2.7%
#2 Bryan Reynolds	9.2	12.1	0.264	0.464	37.0%	83.4%	4.2%
#3 Ke’Bryan Hayes	7.9	10.2	0.271	0.449	32.7%	77.6%	2.9%
#4 Andrew McCutchen	7.8	10.2	0.256	0.391	45.9%	85.0%	2.8%
#5 Edward Olivares	7.2	9.3	0.263	0.452	34.5%	79.7%	3.4%
#6 Henry Davis	6.5	8.6	0.215	0.354	33.6%	69.1%	3.1%
#7 Oneil Cruz	7.0	9.3	0.25	0.375	46.9%	84.4%	3.1%
#8 Michael A. Taylor	6.5	8.6	0.218	0.441	29.9%	74.0%	5.9%
#9 Jared Triolo	5.5	7.2	0.299	0.401	45.2%	85.3%	1.7%

Philadelphia Phillies	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Kyle Schwarber	10.1	13.9	0.198	0.477	42.5%	90.2%	8.1%
#2 Trea Turner	9.0	11.7	0.268	0.461	34.8%	80.9%	4.1%
#3 Bryce Harper	9.4	12.5	0.293	0.499	47.9%	97.8%	4.6%
#4 J.T. Realmuto	7.6	9.9	0.252	0.454	34.4%	79.8%	4.1%
#5 Alec Bohm	6.5	8.6	0.276	0.44	35.9%	79.8%	3.6%
#6 Brandon Marsh	7.7	10.1	0.279	0.461	43.6%	89.8%	3.0%
#7 Nick Castellanos	6.8	8.9	0.273	0.478	33.4%	81.2%	4.7%
#8 Bryson Stott	6.8	8.6	0.278	0.418	35.6%	77.3%	2.6%
#9 Johan Rojas	5.8	7.5	0.302	0.43	36.2%	79.2%	1.3%