Padres vs Red Sox Game Breakdown

Get ready to slide into some MLB excitement as the San Diego Padres, boasting a solid 45-41 record, are gearing up to storm Fenway Park, where the Boston Red Sox, with a close 43-38, await to defend their turf. It’s a showdown set for a 4:10 PM EST start, and both teams are hungry to claw back from their respective conference deficits. With the Padres fresh off a triumphant 9-2 victory over these very Red Sox, who are itching to flip the script under today’s overcast skies and brisk winds, the stakes are as high as the 9.0 run line suggests. As the bats crack and the balls fly, will the Padres ride their wave, or will the Red Sox sock it to them in a reversal of fortunes?

Game Breakdown

Game Time: June 29, 2024 04:10PM EST

Location: Fenway Park, Boston

Weather: Overcast with winds from the S at 13.6 mph. Temperature is at 68.4° with 53% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	SD ML	BOS ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+125	-149	9.0	1.5/-1.5
Recent	+118	-141	8.5	1.5/-1.5
Difference	-7	+8	-0.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

8W-2L

AWAY

133W-144L

45.9% Win Probability

LAST 10

7W-3L

HOME

146W-133L

54.1% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
06/28/24	San Diego Padres SD	9	Over	+2.0
06/28/24	Boston Red Sox BOS	2	Over	+2.0
05/19/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	6	Under	-2.0
05/19/23	San Diego Padres SD	1	Under	-2.0
05/20/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	4	Under	-3.0
05/20/23	San Diego Padres SD	2	Under	-3.0
05/21/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	0	Under	-2.0
05/21/23	San Diego Padres SD	7	Under	-2.0

Padres Vs Over/Under

Red Sox Vs Over/Under

Michael King

ERA 3.587 | IP 90.3 | 4.0W-5.0L | KO 104.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
06-23-24	vsMIL	6-2L	6.0	9	5	8	Under
06-18-24	@PHI	3-4L	4.7	6	1	6	Under
06-12-24	vsOAK	4-5W	5.0	4	2	12	Over
06-07-24	vsARI	3-10W	5.0	4	0	5	Over
06-02-24	@KC	3-4L	7.0	4	1	4	Under
05-27-24	vsMIA	1-2W	5.0	3	1	7	Under
05-22-24	@CIN	7-3W	6.7	4	3	6	Over
05-15-24	vsCOL	8-0L	5.3	8	6	7	Under
05-10-24	vsLAD	1-2W	7.0	2	0	11	Under
05-04-24	@ARI	13-1W	6.0	6	0	3	Over

Tanner Houck

ERA 2.265 | IP 103.3 | 7.0W-5.0L | KO 101.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
06-24-24	vsTOR	6-7W	6.7	5	3	7	Over
06-18-24	@TOR	4-3W	5.7	6	3	5	Under
06-13-24	vsPHI	3-9W	6.0	8	3	5	Over
06-06-24	@CWS	14-2W	7.0	3	2	9	Over
05-31-24	vsDET	3-7W	7.0	3	1	6	Over
05-26-24	vsMIL	1-2W	6.0	7	1	7	Under
05-20-24	@TB	5-0W	7.0	2	0	5	Under
05-15-24	vsTB	4-3L	5.7	5	3	7	Under
05-10-24	vsWAS	5-1L	7.0	6	3	4	Under
05-03-24	@MIN	2-5L	6.0	6	4	5	Under

Padres Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
06/30	vs BOS	9-2W	12	2	Over
06/28	@ WAS	8-5W	9	2	Over
06/27	@ WAS	9-7W	9	2	Over
06/26	@ WAS	7-6W	8	0	Over
06/25	@ MIL	2-6L	8	0	Under
06/24	@ MIL	6-4W	10	3	Over
06/23	@ MIL	9-5W	15	2	Over
06/22	@ MIL	7-6W	10	4	Over
06/21	vs PHI	5-2W	12	1	Under
06/20	vs PHI	3-4L	4	1	Under
06/19	vs PHI	2-9L	7	0	Over
06/18	vs NYM	6-11L	10	0	Over
06/17	vs NYM	1-5L	2	1	Under
06/16	vs NYM	1-2L	5	1	Under
06/14	@ OAK	5-4W	6	4	Over

Red Sox Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
06/30	@ SD	2-9L	8	1	Over
06/27	@ TOR	4-9L	5	2	Over
06/26	@ TOR	7-6W	11	2	Over
06/25	vs CIN	7-4W	10	2	Over
06/24	vs CIN	4-3W	9	1	Under
06/23	vs CIN	2-5L	6	2	Under
06/21	vs TOR	7-3W	10	2	Over
06/20	vs TOR	4-3W	12	1	Under
06/19	vs TOR	7-3W	11	4	Over
06/18	@ NYY	9-3W	14	0	Over
06/17	@ NYY	8-4W	12	0	Over
06/16	@ NYY	1-8L	5	0	Over
06/15	@ PHI	9-3W	14	1	Over
06/14	@ PHI	8-6W	13	1	Over
06/13	@ PHI	1-4L	4	0	Under

Team’s Batting Order

San Diego Padres	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	wOBA	HR/Rate
#1 Luis Arraez	7.8	9.6	0.311	0.384	0.366	0.750	0.310	0.006
#2 Jurickson Profar	7.3	9.7	0.316	0.486	0.479	0.965	0.380	0.039
#3 Jake Cronenworth	7.0	9.3	0.257	0.438	0.355	0.793	0.324	0.039
#4 Manny Machado	7.7	9.9	0.266	0.383	0.334	0.717	0.296	0.024
#5 Donovan Solano	6.2	8.0	0.287	0.402	0.410	0.811	0.329	0.025
#6 Jackson Merrill	6.9	8.9	0.283	0.441	0.338	0.779	0.321	0.040
#7 Ha-Seong Kim	6.2	8.2	0.229	0.393	0.393	0.785	0.315	0.036
#8 Kyle Higashioka	4.8	6.5	0.211	0.547	0.263	0.811	0.334	0.095
#9 Bryce Johnson	4.5	6.0	0.182	0.273	0.364	0.636	0.262	0.000

Boston Red Sox	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	wOBA	HR/Rate
#1 Jarren Duran	8.3	10.7	0.287	0.476	0.385	0.861	0.348	0.021
#2 Wilyer Abreu	8.0	10.4	0.259	0.459	0.362	0.822	0.334	0.032
#3 Tyler O’Neill	8.3	11.1	0.257	0.539	0.408	0.947	0.376	0.078
#4 Rafael Devers	9.3	12.3	0.287	0.570	0.430	1.000	0.395	0.066
#5 Masataka Yoshida	7.4	9.6	0.252	0.358	0.366	0.724	0.299	0.016
#6 Connor Wong	6.6	8.5	0.328	0.475	0.431	0.907	0.366	0.034
#7 Enmanuel Valdez	5.6	7.5	0.212	0.404	0.295	0.699	0.289	0.041
#8 Dominic Smith	5.6	7.5	0.209	0.317	0.353	0.669	0.276	0.022
#9 Ceddanne Rafaela	5.6	7.3	0.245	0.394	0.289	0.682	0.284	0.029

Padres Notable Injuries

Fernando Tatis Jr. OUT (OF): Avg: 0.277 SLG:0.47 Last game: 06/23/24. Impact: 2.8
Luis Campusano OUT (C): Avg: 0.231 SLG:0.364 Last game: 06/22/24. Impact: 2.0
Tom Cosgrove OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 06/28/24. Impact: -0.3

Red Sox Notable Injuries

Connor Wong OUT (C): Avg: 0.328 SLG:0.475 Last game: 06/30/24. Impact: 3.8
Vaughn Grissom OUT (2B): Avg: 0.148 SLG:0.16 Last game: 06/03/24. Impact: 1.1