Padres vs Red Sox Game Breakdown

Get ready to slide into some spicy MLB action as the San Diego Padres, with a solid 46-41 record, are charging into Fenway Park to lock horns with the 43-39 Boston Red Sox today at 1:35 PM EST. The Padres, looking sharp after steamrolling the Sox just yesterday, are eager to keep that momentum, while the Red Sox are itching for redemption on their own turf. With the Padres trailing by 7.5 games in the National League and the Red Sox lagging 9.5 in the American, both teams are desperate to claw back up the rankings. The stakes are high, the bats are hot, and with a breezy, partly cloudy day setting the stage, the over/under teetering at 9.5 promises plenty of action. Will the Padres ride the wave of their recent victory, or will the Red Sox turn the tide against their rivals? One thing’s for sure, today’s game is set to be a real ‘Sox and Padres’ showdown!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: June 30, 2024 01:35PM EST

Location: Fenway Park, Boston

Weather: Partly cloudy with winds from the WSW at 16.1 mph. Temperature is at 82.0° with 74% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	SD ML	BOS ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-101	-119	9.5	1.5/-1.5
Recent	-105	-115	10.5	1.5/-1.5
Difference	-4	+4	+1.0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

9W-1L

AWAY

134W-144L

51.2% Win Probability

LAST 10

6W-4L

HOME

146W-134L

48.8% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
06/28/24	San Diego Padres SD	9	Over	+1.5
06/28/24	Boston Red Sox BOS	2	Over	+1.5
06/29/24	San Diego Padres SD	11	Over	+2.5
06/29/24	Boston Red Sox BOS	1	Over	+2.5
05/19/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	6	Under	-2.5
05/19/23	San Diego Padres SD	1	Under	-2.5
05/20/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	4	Under	-3.5
05/20/23	San Diego Padres SD	2	Under	-3.5
05/21/23	Boston Red Sox BOS	0	Under	-2.5
05/21/23	San Diego Padres SD	7	Under	-2.5

Padres Vs Over/Under

Red Sox Vs Over/Under

Matt Waldron

ERA 3.425 | IP 89.3 | 5.0W-6.0L | KO 84.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
06-24-24	vsWAS	6-7W	6.0	5	2	8	Over
06-19-24	@PHI	5-2W	7.0	5	1	6	Under
06-14-24	@NYM	1-2L	7.0	3	2	2	Under
06-08-24	vsARI	1-13W	6.0	3	1	4	Over
06-03-24	@LAA	1-2L	6.3	2	1	4	Under
05-28-24	vsMIA	0-4W	7.0	6	0	8	Under
05-23-24	@CIN	6-4W	5.0	6	2	7	Under
05-17-24	@ATL	3-1W	5.7	5	1	10	Under
05-11-24	vsLAD	5-0L	5.3	2	2	6	Under
05-05-24	@ARI	4-11L	3.0	8	8	2	Over

Josh Winckowski

ERA 3.264 | IP 30.3 | 1.0W-1.0L | KO 27.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
06-25-24	vsTOR	9-4L	6.0	6	2	8	Over
05-08-24	@ATL	0-5L	1.0	1	0	0	Under
05-05-24	@MIN	9-2W	1.0	2	1	0	Over
05-02-24	vsSF	3-1L	4.3	2	1	0	Under
04-27-24	vsCHC	0-17W	3.0	3	0	1	Over
04-21-24	@PIT	6-1W	3.3	3	1	1	Under
04-16-24	vsCLE	10-7L	1.0	2	3	1	Over
04-15-24	vsCLE	6-0L	1.0	2	2	1	Under
04-13-24	vsLAA	2-7W	2.0	0	0	2	Under
04-09-24	vsBAL	7-1L	2.7	9	4	4	Under

Padres Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
07/01	vs BOS	11-1W	16	4	Over
06/30	vs BOS	9-2W	12	2	Over
06/28	@ WAS	8-5W	9	2	Over
06/27	@ WAS	9-7W	9	2	Over
06/26	@ WAS	7-6W	8	0	Over
06/25	@ MIL	2-6L	8	0	Under
06/24	@ MIL	6-4W	10	3	Under
06/23	@ MIL	9-5W	15	2	Over
06/22	@ MIL	7-6W	10	4	Over
06/21	vs PHI	5-2W	12	1	Under
06/20	vs PHI	3-4L	4	1	Under
06/19	vs PHI	2-9L	7	0	Over
06/18	vs NYM	6-11L	10	0	Over
06/17	vs NYM	1-5L	2	1	Under
06/16	vs NYM	1-2L	5	1	Under

Red Sox Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
07/01	@ SD	1-11L	6	1	Over
06/30	@ SD	2-9L	8	1	Over
06/27	@ TOR	4-9L	5	2	Over
06/26	@ TOR	7-6W	11	2	Over
06/25	vs CIN	7-4W	10	2	Over
06/24	vs CIN	4-3W	9	1	Under
06/23	vs CIN	2-5L	6	2	Under
06/21	vs TOR	7-3W	10	2	Under
06/20	vs TOR	4-3W	12	1	Under
06/19	vs TOR	7-3W	11	4	Under
06/18	@ NYY	9-3W	14	0	Over
06/17	@ NYY	8-4W	12	0	Over
06/16	@ NYY	1-8L	5	0	Under
06/15	@ PHI	9-3W	14	1	Over
06/14	@ PHI	8-6W	13	1	Over

Team’s Batting Order

San Diego Padres	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	wOBA	HR/Rate
#1 Luis Arraez	9.6	11.9	0.315	0.390	0.372	0.762	0.315	0.006
#2 Jurickson Profar	8.6	11.4	0.315	0.483	0.476	0.958	0.378	0.038
#3 Jake Cronenworth	9.1	12.0	0.256	0.434	0.353	0.786	0.322	0.039
#4 Manny Machado	10.3	13.4	0.268	0.403	0.336	0.739	0.305	0.031
#5 Donovan Solano	8.6	11.1	0.286	0.397	0.405	0.802	0.326	0.024
#6 Jackson Merrill	9.6	12.3	0.289	0.458	0.343	0.801	0.330	0.043
#7 Ha-Seong Kim	8.0	10.6	0.233	0.394	0.398	0.792	0.317	0.036
#8 Kyle Higashioka	6.6	9.0	0.211	0.547	0.263	0.811	0.334	0.095
#9 Bryce Johnson	5.9	8.0	0.133	0.200	0.333	0.533	0.225	0.000

Boston Red Sox	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	wOBA	HR/Rate
#1 Jarren Duran	10.1	12.9	0.287	0.484	0.384	0.868	0.351	0.023
#2 David Hamilton	8.6	10.9	0.273	0.435	0.348	0.783	0.321	0.031
#3 Wilyer Abreu	8.8	11.5	0.265	0.466	0.365	0.831	0.337	0.032
#4 Rafael Devers	9.8	13.0	0.282	0.561	0.424	0.985	0.390	0.065
#5 Enmanuel Valdez	7.3	9.8	0.215	0.409	0.302	0.711	0.294	0.040
#6 Masataka Yoshida	8.0	10.4	0.246	0.349	0.357	0.706	0.292	0.016
#7 Dominic Smith	6.3	8.5	0.211	0.317	0.352	0.669	0.276	0.021
#8 Reese McGuire	5.6	7.4	0.211	0.307	0.342	0.649	0.269	0.026
#9 Ceddanne Rafaela	5.4	7.0	0.243	0.389	0.286	0.675	0.281	0.029

Padres Notable Injuries

Fernando Tatis Jr. OUT (OF): Avg: 0.277 SLG:0.47 Last game: 06/23/24. Impact: 2.8
Luis Campusano OUT (C): Avg: 0.231 SLG:0.364 Last game: 06/22/24. Impact: 2.0
Tom Cosgrove OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 06/28/24. Impact: -0.3