Padres vs Reds Game Breakdown

Get ready to slide into some MLB action as the San Diego Padres, sitting square at .500, pack their bags and jet off to the heartland to clash with the Cincinnati Reds, who are looking to shake off a recent tumble in the standings. The stage is set at the Great American Ball Park, with the first pitch hurling at us at 06:40 PM EST. Both teams are 8 games shy of the conference lead and itching to climb that ladder. With the bats swinging under clear skies, a gentle breeze, and the mercury hitting a comfy 81 degrees, today’s over/under teases at 9 runs. The Padres are slight favorites, but after both squads felt the sting of defeat in their last outings, it’s anybody’s game. So, as the Reds try to cook up a win at home, will the Padres ride the wave or wipe out? It’s a perfect setup for a game that promises to be anything but ‘Pad’antic or ‘Red’undant!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: May 21, 2024 06:40PM EST

Location: Great American Ball Park, Cincinnati

Weather: Sunny with winds from the SSW at 5.6 mph. Temperature is at 81.0° with 57% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	SD ML	CIN ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	-121	+101	9.0	-1.5/1.5
Recent	-120	+100	9.0	-1.5/1.5
Difference	+1	-1	0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

5W-5L

AWAY

127W-134L

54.5% Win Probability

LAST 10

3W-7L

HOME

121W-140L

45.5% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
04/29/24	Cincinnati Reds CIN	5	Under	-2.0
04/29/24	San Diego Padres SD	2	Under	-2.0
04/30/24	Cincinnati Reds CIN	4	Over	+1.0
04/30/24	San Diego Padres SD	6	Over	+1.0
05/01/24	Cincinnati Reds CIN	2	Under	-1.0
05/01/24	San Diego Padres SD	6	Under	-1.0
05/01/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	3	Over	+2.0
05/01/23	San Diego Padres SD	8	Over	+2.0
05/02/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	2	Under	-6.0
05/02/23	San Diego Padres SD	1	Under	-6.0
05/03/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	1	Under	-1.0
05/03/23	San Diego Padres SD	7	Under	-1.0
06/30/23	San Diego Padres SD	5	Over	+3.0
06/30/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	7	Over	+3.0
07/01/23	San Diego Padres SD	12	Over	+8.0
07/01/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	5	Over	+8.0
07/02/23	San Diego Padres SD	3	Under	-2.0
07/02/23	Cincinnati Reds CIN	4	Under	-2.0

Padres Vs Over/Under

Reds Vs Over/Under

Joe Musgrove

ERA 5.635 | IP 38.3 | 3.0W-3.0L | KO 34.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
05-01-24	vsCIN	2-6W	6.0	4	2	9	Under
04-26-24	vsPHI	9-3L	3.7	8	7	4	Over
04-21-24	vsTOR	3-6W	7.0	5	3	3	Push
04-15-24	@MIL	7-3W	6.0	7	3	3	Over
04-09-24	vsCHC	5-1L	4.0	5	4	5	Under
04-03-24	vsSTL	2-3W	6.0	5	1	7	Under
03-29-24	vsSF	8-3L	5.7	8	4	3	Over
07-28-23	vsTEX	1-7W	6.0	4	0	5	Under
07-23-23	@DET	1-3L	6.0	7	3	6	Under
07-18-23	@TOR	9-1W	6.0	5	1	7	Over

Andrew Abbott

ERA 3.06 | IP 50.0 | 2.0W-4.0L | KO 41.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
05-15-24	@ARI	1-2L	7.0	4	1	4	Under
05-10-24	@SF	4-2W	5.0	6	2	2	Under
05-04-24	vsBAL	2-1L	5.0	7	2	8	Under
04-28-24	@TEX	3-4L	5.3	6	4	7	Under
04-23-24	vsPHI	1-8W	4.3	2	1	3	Push
04-17-24	@SEA	1-5L	6.0	4	2	6	Under
04-12-24	@CWS	11-1W	7.0	4	1	3	Over
04-07-24	vsNYM	3-1L	5.0	7	3	4	Under
04-01-24	@PHI	6-3W	5.3	3	2	4	Push
09-27-23	@CLE	3-4L	2.3	8	3	1	Under

Padres Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
05/22	vs ATL	0-3L	7	0	Under
05/22	vs ATL	6-5W	10	0	Over
05/21	vs ATL	9-1W	14	3	Over
05/19	vs ATL	3-1W	13	0	Under
05/17	@ COL	0-8L	4	0	Under
05/16	@ COL	3-6L	11	0	Push
05/15	@ COL	4-5L	4	3	Push
05/14	@ LAD	4-0W	9	3	Under
05/13	@ LAD	0-5L	6	0	Under
05/12	@ LAD	2-1W	3	1	Under
05/10	vs CHC	3-0W	8	0	Under
05/09	vs CHC	2-3L	9	1	Under
05/08	vs CHC	6-3W	11	0	Push
05/07	vs ARI	4-11L	12	1	Over
05/06	vs ARI	13-1W	18	2	Over

Reds Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
05/21	vs LAD	2-3L	6	0	Under
05/20	vs LAD	0-4L	3	0	Under
05/19	vs LAD	3-7L	7	2	Over
05/18	vs LAD	7-2W	11	1	Push
05/17	vs ARI	1-2L	3	1	Under
05/16	vs ARI	6-2W	13	1	Under
05/15	vs ARI	5-6L	10	0	Over
05/14	vs SF	5-6L	10	1	Over
05/13	vs SF	1-5L	8	1	Under
05/12	vs SF	4-2W	9	1	Under
05/11	@ ARI	4-5L	9	1	Push
05/10	@ ARI	3-4L	9	0	Under
05/09	@ ARI	2-6L	3	2	Under
05/07	@ BAL	1-11L	3	0	Over
05/06	@ BAL	1-2L	6	0	Under

Team’s Batting Order

San Diego Padres	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Luis Arraez	7.5	9.3	0.315	0.381	38.6%	76.6%	0.0%
#2 Fernando Tatis Jr.	11.1	14.6	0.243	0.422	37.3%	79.5%	4.3%
#3 Jurickson Profar	9.0	11.8	0.34	0.525	48.8%	101.2%	4.3%
#4 Jake Cronenworth	7.3	9.6	0.259	0.459	37.1%	82.9%	4.7%
#5 Manny Machado	9.2	12.0	0.228	0.339	28.7%	62.6%	2.3%
#6 Donovan Solano	8.6	10.4	0.368	0.421	52.6%	94.7%	0.0%
#7 Luis Campusano	7.6	10.0	0.261	0.41	32.8%	73.9%	3.0%
#8 Ha-Seong Kim	7.8	10.3	0.226	0.384	39.6%	78.0%	3.7%
#9 Jose Azocar	6.0	7.5	0.26	0.28	34.0%	62.0%	0.0%

Cincinnati Reds	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Will Benson	9.2	12.1	0.191	0.388	32.2%	71.1%	3.9%
#2 Elly De La Cruz	9.0	11.7	0.256	0.476	40.5%	88.1%	5.4%
#3 Mike Ford	8.1	10.2	0.156	0.267	17.8%	44.4%	2.2%
#4 Spencer Steer	7.8	10.5	0.224	0.373	39.8%	77.0%	2.5%
#5 Tyler Stephenson	7.9	10.5	0.252	0.459	37.8%	83.8%	4.5%
#6 Jake Fraley	7.5	9.5	0.262	0.35	35.0%	69.9%	1.0%
#7 Jeimer Candelario	7.7	10.1	0.22	0.387	31.3%	70.0%	2.7%
#8 Jonathan India	6.7	8.7	0.219	0.295	38.4%	67.8%	1.4%
#9 Jacob Hurtubise	6.1	6.9	0.25	0.25	37.5%	62.5%	0.0%