Padres vs Dodgers Game Breakdown

Get ready for a sizzling showdown at Dodger Stadium tonight as the San Diego Padres, hot on the Dodgers’ heels, roll into LA aiming to close the gap in the National League standings. With the Padres just two games behind and looking to topple the conference-leading Dodgers, this 10:10 PM EST start is already buzzing with anticipation. Fresh off a tactical win against these very Dodgers, the Padres are geared up to prove it wasn’t just a one-time deal, especially under tonight’s misty skies with a slight breeze from the SSW stirring the excitement. Betting lines are tilting slightly in favor of the home team, but with an over/under of 7.5, it’s anybody’s game. After their recent face-off where the Padres emerged victorious, tonight’s match isn’t just about the points—it’s about pride. So, as the temperature dips and the humidity clings like a suspenseful third act, let’s see if the Dodgers can ‘pad’ their lead or if the Padres will ‘dodge’ defeat once again!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: September 25, 2024 10:10PM EST

Location: Dodger Stadium, Los Angeles

Weather: Mist with winds from the SSW at 3.4 mph. Temperature is at 63.0° with 90% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	SD ML	LAD ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+119	-142	7.5	1.5/-1.5
Recent	+114	-136	8.0	1.5/-1.5
Difference	-5	+6	+0.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

9W-1L

AWAY

158W-155L

46.7% Win Probability

LAST 10

7W-3L

HOME

215W-103L

53.3% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
03/20/24	Los Angeles Dodgers LAD	5	Under	-0.5
03/20/24	San Diego Padres SD	2	Under	-0.5
03/21/24	San Diego Padres SD	15	Over	+18.5
03/21/24	Los Angeles Dodgers LAD	11	Over	+18.5
04/12/24	San Diego Padres SD	8	Over	+7.5
04/12/24	Los Angeles Dodgers LAD	7	Over	+7.5
04/13/24	San Diego Padres SD	2	Under	-0.5
04/13/24	Los Angeles Dodgers LAD	5	Under	-0.5
04/14/24	San Diego Padres SD	6	Over	+1.5
04/14/24	Los Angeles Dodgers LAD	3	Over	+1.5
05/10/24	Los Angeles Dodgers LAD	1	Under	-4.5
05/10/24	San Diego Padres SD	2	Under	-4.5
05/11/24	Los Angeles Dodgers LAD	5	Under	-2.5
05/11/24	San Diego Padres SD	0	Under	-2.5
05/12/24	Los Angeles Dodgers LAD	0	Under	-3.5
05/12/24	San Diego Padres SD	4	Under	-3.5
07/30/24	Los Angeles Dodgers LAD	5	Over	+3.5
07/30/24	San Diego Padres SD	6	Over	+3.5
07/31/24	Los Angeles Dodgers LAD	1	Over	+1.5
07/31/24	San Diego Padres SD	8	Over	+1.5
09/24/24	San Diego Padres SD	4	Under	-1.5
09/24/24	Los Angeles Dodgers LAD	2	Under	-1.5
05/05/23	Los Angeles Dodgers LAD	2	Under	-0.5
05/05/23	San Diego Padres SD	5	Under	-0.5
05/06/23	Los Angeles Dodgers LAD	2	Under	-4.5
05/06/23	San Diego Padres SD	1	Under	-4.5
05/07/23	Los Angeles Dodgers LAD	5	Under	-0.5
05/07/23	San Diego Padres SD	2	Under	-0.5
05/12/23	San Diego Padres SD	2	Under	-1.5
05/12/23	Los Angeles Dodgers LAD	4	Under	-1.5
05/13/23	San Diego Padres SD	2	Under	-1.5
05/13/23	Los Angeles Dodgers LAD	4	Under	-1.5
05/14/23	San Diego Padres SD	0	Under	-3.5
05/14/23	Los Angeles Dodgers LAD	4	Under	-3.5
08/04/23	Los Angeles Dodgers LAD	10	Over	+7.5
08/04/23	San Diego Padres SD	5	Over	+7.5
08/05/23	Los Angeles Dodgers LAD	3	Over	+3.5
08/05/23	San Diego Padres SD	8	Over	+3.5
08/06/23	Los Angeles Dodgers LAD	8	Over	+2.5
08/06/23	San Diego Padres SD	2	Over	+2.5
08/07/23	Los Angeles Dodgers LAD	13	Over	+12.5
08/07/23	San Diego Padres SD	7	Over	+12.5
09/11/23	San Diego Padres SD	11	Over	+11.5
09/11/23	Los Angeles Dodgers LAD	8	Over	+11.5
09/12/23	San Diego Padres SD	2	Over	+5.5
09/12/23	Los Angeles Dodgers LAD	11	Over	+5.5
09/13/23	San Diego Padres SD	6	Under	-0.5
09/13/23	Los Angeles Dodgers LAD	1	Under	-0.5

Padres Vs Over/Under

Dodgers Vs Over/Under

Dylan Cease

ERA 3.418 | IP 184.3 | 14.0W-11.0L | KO 220.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
09-18-24	vsHOU	0-4W	8.3	2	0	5	Under
09-13-24	@SF	5-0W	6.0	4	0	10	Under
09-07-24	vsSF	6-3L	6.0	6	4	4	Over
09-01-24	@TB	4-3W	5.0	2	3	4	Under
08-27-24	@STL	7-5W	4.3	7	4	4	Over
08-22-24	vsNYM	8-3L	6.3	9	3	7	Over
08-17-24	@COL	8-3W	5.7	3	3	5	Over
08-11-24	@MIA	6-7L	5.0	6	5	5	Over
08-06-24	@PIT	6-0W	1.0	1	0	2	Under
07-31-24	vsLAD	1-8W	5.7	3	1	6	Over

Jack Flaherty

ERA 3.096 | IP 157.0 | 13.0W-7.0L | KO 189.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
09-19-24	@MIA	20-4W	6.0	5	3	5	Over
09-14-24	@ATL	1-10L	3.0	5	4	4	Over
09-08-24	vsCLE	0-4W	7.3	4	0	6	Under
09-02-24	@ARI	11-6W	5.7	5	1	7	Over
08-27-24	vsBAL	3-2L	6.0	6	3	5	Under
08-21-24	vsSEA	4-8W	5.7	5	2	5	Over
08-15-24	@MIL	4-6L	5.0	4	3	7	Over
08-09-24	vsPIT	5-9W	5.7	9	4	10	Over
08-03-24	@OAK	10-0W	6.0	5	0	7	Over
07-24-24	@CLE	1-2W	6.0	3	1	6	Under

Padres Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
09/26	vs LAD	4-2W	8	1	Under
09/24	@ CWS	4-2W	5	2	Under
09/24	@ CWS	4-2W	5	2	Under
09/23	@ CWS	6-2W	11	3	Push
09/22	@ CWS	3-2W	10	0	Under
09/20	@ HOU	4-0W	9	4	Under
09/19	@ HOU	3-3L	6	1	Under
09/18	@ HOU	3-1W	13	2	Under
09/17	vs SF	4-3W	6	1	Under
09/16	vs SF	8-0W	17	1	Push
09/15	vs SF	5-0W	12	1	Under
09/13	vs SEA	2-5L	4	1	Under
09/12	vs SEA	7-3W	11	2	Over
09/10	@ SF	6-7L	8	2	Over
09/09	@ SF	3-6L	11	0	Over

Dodgers Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
09/26	@ SD	2-4L	9	0	Under
09/24	@ COL	6-5W	11	4	Over
09/24	@ COL	6-5W	11	4	Over
09/23	@ COL	3-6L	7	1	Over
09/22	@ COL	6-4W	9	3	Over
09/21	vs MIA	20-4W	16	3	Over
09/20	vs MIA	8-4W	11	3	Over
09/19	vs MIA	9-11L	12	2	Over
09/18	vs ATL	9-0W	4	1	Over
09/17	vs ATL	9-2W	11	3	Over
09/16	vs ATL	1-10L	7	0	Over
09/15	vs ATL	2-6L	5	1	Push
09/13	@ CHC	10-8W	12	5	Over
09/12	@ CHC	3-6L	8	3	Over
09/11	@ CHC	4-10L	10	1	Over

Team’s Batting Order

San Diego Padres	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	wOBA	HR/Rate
#1 Luis Arraez	6.7	8.3	0.317	0.391	0.368	0.759	0.314	0.006
#2 Fernando Tatis Jr.	8.8	11.5	0.277	0.501	0.369	0.871	0.354	0.055
#3 Jurickson Profar	6.6	8.8	0.285	0.478	0.452	0.930	0.368	0.046
#4 Manny Machado	7.2	9.5	0.274	0.474	0.346	0.819	0.336	0.049
#5 Jackson Merrill	7.6	9.8	0.293	0.503	0.347	0.850	0.349	0.045
#6 Xander Bogaerts	7.2	9.1	0.252	0.374	0.319	0.693	0.287	0.027
#7 Jake Cronenworth	5.5	7.3	0.241	0.391	0.366	0.757	0.309	0.031
#8 Donovan Solano	5.0	6.4	0.280	0.410	0.365	0.775	0.318	0.026
#9 Kyle Higashioka	4.8	6.4	0.220	0.474	0.284	0.759	0.313	0.069

Los Angeles Dodgers	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPS	wOBA	HR/Rate
#1 Shohei Ohtani	10.0	13.1	0.306	0.655	0.446	1.101	0.433	0.089
#2 Mookie Betts	8.2	10.8	0.287	0.494	0.427	0.921	0.366	0.044
#3 Freddie Freeman	7.7	10.2	0.285	0.480	0.440	0.921	0.366	0.042
#4 Teoscar Hernandez	6.6	8.7	0.272	0.506	0.376	0.882	0.357	0.057
#5 Max Muncy	6.8	9.4	0.233	0.507	0.433	0.940	0.369	0.070
#6 Will Smith	6.5	8.7	0.238	0.422	0.366	0.788	0.320	0.042
#7 Tommy Edman	6.0	7.8	0.256	0.448	0.320	0.768	0.316	0.048
#8 Gavin Lux	5.5	7.2	0.244	0.379	0.350	0.729	0.299	0.024
#9 Miguel Rojas	4.2	5.4	0.282	0.410	0.367	0.777	0.319	0.020

Padres Notable Injuries

Mason McCoy OUT (SS): Avg: 0.204 SLG:0.245 Last game: 09/16/24. Impact: 0.8

Dodgers Notable Injuries

Gavin Stone OUT (SP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 09/02/24. Impact: 6.6
Clayton Kershaw OUT (SP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 09/01/24. Impact: 4.3
Austin Barnes OUT (C): Avg: 0.261 SLG:0.306 Last game: 09/17/24. Impact: 1.3
Anthony Banda OUT (RP): Avg: nan SLG:nan Last game: 09/11/24. Impact: 0.4