Blue Jays vs Royals Game Breakdown & Projections – Thu, Apr 25th 2024

Get ready to watch sparks fly at Kauffman Stadium as the Toronto Blue Jays swoop into Kansas City, looking to pluck a win from the clutches of the Royals in today’s midday showdown. With the Jays flapping their wings 4 games behind in the American League and the Royals holding court just 2.5 games back, every pitch counts in this clash of the titans. The stakes are sky-high with the over/under teasing at 8.0, hinting at either a pitcher’s duel or a slugfest waiting to erupt. Factor in the moody overcast skies and a brisk breeze from the east-southeast, and you’ve got the perfect storm for an unforgettable game. After the Royals edged out a narrow victory yesterday, the Blue Jays are hungry for revenge. So, as the first pitch nears, remember: in this royal rumble, it’s anyone’s game until the last feather falls!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 25, 2024 02:10PM EST

Location: Kauffman Stadium, Kansas City

Weather: Overcast with winds from the ESE at 12.5 mph. Temperature is at 55.9° with 75% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	TOR ML	KC ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+102	-122	8.0	1.5/-1.5
Recent	-108	-112	7.5	1.5/-1.5
Difference	-210	+10	-0.5	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

6W-4L

AWAY

139W-113L

51.9% Win Probability

LAST 10

5W-5L

HOME

116W-136L

48.1% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
04/22/24	Toronto Blue Jays TOR	5	Push	-0.0
04/22/24	Kansas City Royals KC	3	Push	-0.0
04/23/24	Toronto Blue Jays TOR	2	Under	-3.0
04/23/24	Kansas City Royals KC	3	Under	-3.0
04/24/24	Toronto Blue Jays TOR	2	Under	-3.0
04/24/24	Kansas City Royals KC	3	Under	-3.0
04/03/23	Toronto Blue Jays TOR	5	Over	+6.0
04/03/23	Kansas City Royals KC	9	Over	+6.0
04/04/23	Toronto Blue Jays TOR	4	Under	-3.0
04/04/23	Kansas City Royals KC	1	Under	-3.0
04/05/23	Toronto Blue Jays TOR	3	Under	-5.0
04/05/23	Kansas City Royals KC	0	Under	-5.0
04/06/23	Toronto Blue Jays TOR	6	Over	+1.0
04/06/23	Kansas City Royals KC	3	Over	+1.0
09/08/23	Kansas City Royals KC	4	Over	+1.0
09/08/23	Toronto Blue Jays TOR	5	Over	+1.0
09/09/23	Kansas City Royals KC	1	Under	-2.0
09/09/23	Toronto Blue Jays TOR	5	Under	-2.0
09/10/23	Kansas City Royals KC	2	Under	-1.0
09/10/23	Toronto Blue Jays TOR	5	Under	-1.0

Blue Jays Vs Over/Under

Royals Vs Over/Under

Jose Berrios

ERA 0.853 | IP 31.7 | 4.0W-0.0L | KO 27.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-20-24	@SD	5-2W	6.0	5	0	6	Under
04-14-24	vsCOL	0-5W	7.0	2	0	7	Under
04-08-24	vsSEA	2-5W	6.7	4	0	6	Under
04-02-24	@HOU	2-1W	6.0	6	1	2	Under
03-28-24	@TB	8-2W	6.0	6	2	6	Over
09-27-23	vsNYY	6-0L	6.0	5	4	10	Under
09-21-23	@NYY	3-5L	5.7	7	4	6	Over
09-15-23	vsBOS	0-3W	7.0	5	0	8	Under
09-10-23	vsKC	2-5W	7.0	5	2	7	Under
09-04-23	@OAK	6-5W	6.0	4	2	7	Over

Will Smith

ERA 12.375 | IP 8.0 | 0.0W-2.0L | KO 7.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-20-24	vsBAL	9-7L	1.7	9	7	4	Over
04-14-24	@NYM	1-2L	6.0	5	0	8	Under
04-09-24	vsHOU	3-4W	5.0	10	3	5	Under
04-03-24	@BAL	3-4L	6.3	1	0	7	Under
03-28-24	vsMIN	4-1L	6.0	5	2	9	Under
09-28-23	@DET	3-7L	6.3	5	4	8	Over
09-22-23	@HOU	7-5W	6.0	3	2	5	Over
09-16-23	vsHOU	8-10W	6.0	6	5	7	Over
09-10-23	@TOR	2-5L	5.7	1	2	6	Under
09-04-23	vsCWS	1-12W	6.0	1	0	7	Over
04-21-24	vsBAL	5-0L	1.0	0	0	0	Under
04-19-24	vsBAL	4-9W	1.0	4	4	1	Over
04-17-24	@CWS	4-2W	1.0	0	0	1	Under
04-12-24	@NYM	1-6L	1.0	4	1	1	Under
04-07-24	vsCWS	3-5W	1.0	1	0	1	Over
04-05-24	vsCWS	1-2W	0.3	1	0	1	Under
04-03-24	@BAL	3-4L	0.7	2	2	1	Under
04-02-24	@BAL	4-1W	1.0	0	0	1	Under
03-30-24	vsMIN	5-1L	1.0	2	4	0	Under
09-29-23	@SEA	0-8W	1.0	0	0	1	Over

Blue Jays Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/26	vs KC	2-3L	6	1	Under
04/25	vs KC	2-3L	9	0	Under
04/24	vs KC	5-3W	6	1	Over
04/23	vs SD	3-6L	6	2	Over
04/22	vs SD	5-2W	8	1	Under
04/21	vs SD	5-1W	11	1	Under
04/19	@ NYY	4-6L	9	2	Over
04/18	@ NYY	5-4W	8	0	Over
04/17	@ NYY	3-1W	4	0	Under
04/16	@ COL	5-0W	12	0	Under
04/15	@ COL	5-3W	9	1	Over
04/14	@ COL	4-12L	11	2	Over
04/12	@ SEA	1-6L	6	1	Under
04/11	@ SEA	5-3W	11	1	Over
04/10	@ SEA	5-2W	11	0	Under

Royals Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/26	@ TOR	3-2W	9	0	Under
04/25	@ TOR	3-2W	8	0	Under
04/24	@ TOR	3-5L	8	2	Over
04/23	@ BAL	0-5L	5	0	Under
04/22	@ BAL	6-9L	8	1	Over
04/21	@ BAL	9-4W	9	2	Over
04/19	vs CWS	1-2L	5	0	Under
04/19	vs CWS	4-2W	7	2	Under
04/17	vs CWS	2-0W	5	1	Under
04/16	vs NYM	1-2L	3	1	Under
04/15	vs NYM	11-7W	13	1	Over
04/14	vs NYM	1-6L	3	1	Under
04/13	@ HOU	13-3W	16	2	Over
04/12	@ HOU	11-2W	11	1	Over
04/11	@ HOU	3-3L	7	0	Under

Team’s Batting Order

Toronto Blue Jays	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 George Springer	8.0	10.2	0.232	0.358	36.8%	72.6%	3.2%
#2 V. Guerrero	7.9	10.4	0.219	0.344	38.5%	72.9%	3.1%
#3 Bo Bichette	8.1	10.4	0.231	0.341	31.9%	65.9%	1.1%
#4 Justin Turner	7.0	9.3	0.319	0.5	50.0%	100.0%	2.8%
#5 Davis Schneider	8.3	11.2	0.216	0.431	31.4%	74.5%	5.9%
#6 Danny Jansen	7.4	9.3	0.235	0.412	35.3%	76.5%	0.0%
#7 Ernie Clement	4.9	6.3	0.277	0.468	29.8%	76.6%	4.3%
#8 Isiah Kiner-Falefa	5.9	7.3	0.262	0.385	36.9%	75.4%	1.5%
#9 Daulton Varsho	6.0	8.0	0.257	0.568	39.2%	95.9%	8.1%

Kansas City Royals	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Maikel Garcia	6.4	8.4	0.206	0.381	27.8%	66.0%	4.1%
#2 Bobby Witt Jr.	8.2	10.5	0.317	0.574	39.6%	97.0%	4.0%
#3 Vinnie Pasquantino	7.2	9.7	0.244	0.451	41.5%	86.6%	4.9%
#4 Salvador Perez	6.8	8.9	0.348	0.596	44.9%	104.5%	6.7%
#4 Will Smith	-4.2	11.5	nan	nan	nan%	nan%	nan%
#5 MJ Melendez	6.9	9.3	0.208	0.429	31.2%	74.0%	5.2%
#6 Nelson Velazquez	6.8	8.9	0.243	0.378	33.8%	71.6%	2.7%
#7 Michael Massey	6.1	8.1	0.214	0.286	21.4%	50.0%	0.0%
#8 Hunter Renfroe	5.0	6.9	0.149	0.284	22.4%	50.7%	3.0%
#9 Kyle Isbel	5.6	7.0	0.221	0.338	25.0%	58.8%	2.9%