Nationals vs Marlins Game Breakdown & Projections – Sun, Apr 28th 2024

Get ready to dive into a sizzling showdown as the Washington Nationals, boasting a decent 12W-14L record, roll into the sunny climes of LoanDepot Park to face off against the struggling Miami Marlins, who are sitting deep in the tank with a 6W-22L. The stakes are heating up with the Nationals trying to claw back from a 7-game deficit and the Marlins swimming upstream, a whopping 14 games back in the National League. With the first pitch slated for 01:40 PM EST under partly cloudy skies, a breezy 77 degrees setting the stage, and the betting world buzzing with an over/under of 8.5, today’s game promises more flips and twists than a marlin fighting on the line. While the Nationals look to repeat their recent dominant 11-4 victory, the Marlins are itching to flip the script. So, as we gear up for today’s action, let’s see if the Nationals can continue to ‘capitol-ize’ or if the Marlins will finally ‘fish’ out a win from their hat!

Game Breakdown

Game Time: April 28, 2024 01:40PM EST

Location: LoanDepot Park, Miami

Weather: Partly cloudy with winds from the E at 15.0 mph. Temperature is at 77.0° with 66% humidity.

Vegas Odds

	WAS ML	MIA ML	Over/Under	Line
Open	+123	-147	8.5	1.5/-1.5
Recent	+119	-142	8.5	1.5/-1.5
Difference	-4	+5	0	–

Team Performance

LAST 10

5W-5L

AWAY

103W-149L

45.7% Win Probability

LAST 10

2W-8L

HOME

120W-133L

54.3% Win Probability

Previous Matchups

Date		Runs	O/U	O/U DIFF
04/26/24	Washington Nationals WAS	3	Under	-4.5
04/26/24	Miami Marlins MIA	1	Under	-4.5
04/27/24	Washington Nationals WAS	11	Over	+6.5
04/27/24	Miami Marlins MIA	4	Over	+6.5
05/16/23	Washington Nationals WAS	4	Over	+0.5
05/16/23	Miami Marlins MIA	5	Over	+0.5
05/17/23	Washington Nationals WAS	3	Under	-1.5
05/17/23	Miami Marlins MIA	4	Under	-1.5
05/18/23	Washington Nationals WAS	3	Under	-0.5
05/18/23	Miami Marlins MIA	5	Under	-0.5
06/16/23	Miami Marlins MIA	6	Over	+2.5
06/16/23	Washington Nationals WAS	5	Over	+2.5
06/17/23	Miami Marlins MIA	5	Under	-1.5
06/17/23	Washington Nationals WAS	2	Under	-1.5
06/18/23	Miami Marlins MIA	4	Under	-2.5
06/18/23	Washington Nationals WAS	2	Under	-2.5
08/25/23	Washington Nationals WAS	7	Over	+2.5
08/25/23	Miami Marlins MIA	4	Over	+2.5
08/26/23	Washington Nationals WAS	3	Under	-3.5
08/26/23	Miami Marlins MIA	2	Under	-3.5
08/27/23	Washington Nationals WAS	1	Under	-5.5
08/27/23	Miami Marlins MIA	2	Under	-5.5
08/31/23	Miami Marlins MIA	6	Under	-1.5
08/31/23	Washington Nationals WAS	1	Under	-1.5
09/01/23	Miami Marlins MIA	8	Over	+4.5
09/01/23	Washington Nationals WAS	5	Over	+4.5
09/02/23	Miami Marlins MIA	11	Over	+7.5
09/02/23	Washington Nationals WAS	5	Over	+7.5
09/03/23	Miami Marlins MIA	6	Over	+1.5
09/03/23	Washington Nationals WAS	4	Over	+1.5

Nationals Vs Over/Under

Marlins Vs Over/Under

Patrick Corbin

ERA 6.506 | IP 27.7 | 0.0W-3.0L | KO 18.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-23-24	vsLAD	4-1L	5.3	3	0	3	Under
04-16-24	@LAD	2-6L	6.3	9	5	5	Under
04-10-24	@SF	1-7L	5.7	11	7	2	Under
04-05-24	vsPHI	4-0L	6.0	9	4	6	Under
03-30-24	@CIN	7-6W	4.3	7	4	2	Over
09-27-23	@BAL	1-5L	4.7	6	4	2	Under
09-22-23	vsATL	9-6L	4.3	5	5	1	Over
09-17-23	@MIL	2-1W	6.0	4	1	2	Under
09-11-23	@PIT	6-2W	6.7	5	2	8	Under
09-05-23	vsNYM	11-5L	4.0	7	8	2	Over

Ryan Weathers

ERA 3.156 | IP 25.7 | 2.0W-2.0L | KO 23.0

Date	Matchup	Result	IP	Hits	Runs	KO	Over
04-22-24	@ATL	0-3L	5.7	6	3	1	Under
04-16-24	vsSF	3-6W	6.0	5	2	10	Over
04-10-24	@NYY	5-2W	5.0	3	0	1	Under
04-04-24	@STL	5-8L	5.0	3	3	6	Over
03-30-24	vsPIT	9-3L	4.0	7	3	5	Over
10-01-23	@PIT	0-3L	6.0	2	0	5	Under
08-21-23	@SD	2-6L	3.3	5	5	4	Under
08-05-23	@TEX	8-9L	3.7	6	6	5	Over
07-15-23	@PHI	4-9W	4.7	6	4	2	Over
06-15-23	@CLE	8-6L	1.7	7	6	2	Over

Nationals Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/29	vs MIA	11-4W	11	3	Over
04/28	vs MIA	3-1W	8	0	Under
04/27	@ LAD	1-2L	7	0	Under
04/26	@ LAD	2-11L	3	1	Over
04/25	@ LAD	1-4L	7	0	Under
04/23	@ HOU	6-0W	11	1	Under
04/22	@ HOU	5-4W	9	1	Over
04/21	@ HOU	3-5L	8	1	Under
04/19	vs LAD	2-0W	4	1	Under
04/18	vs LAD	2-6L	6	1	Under
04/17	vs LAD	6-4W	8	2	Over
04/16	vs OAK	6-7L	12	1	Over
04/15	vs OAK	3-1W	10	0	Under
04/14	vs OAK	1-2L	8	1	Under
04/12	vs SF	1-7L	4	1	Under

Marlins Recent Games

Date	vsOpp	Result	Hits	HR	O/U
04/29	@ WAS	4-11L	13	1	Over
04/28	@ WAS	1-3L	6	0	Under
04/26	vs ATL	3-4L	7	1	Under
04/25	vs ATL	0-5L	3	0	Under
04/24	vs ATL	0-3L	8	0	Under
04/23	vs CHC	6-3W	11	1	Over
04/22	vs CHC	3-5L	8	1	Under
04/22	vs CHC	3-2W	8	1	Under
04/21	vs CHC	3-8L	6	1	Over
04/19	@ SF	1-3L	6	1	Under
04/18	@ SF	6-3W	8	0	Over
04/17	@ SF	3-4L	10	1	Under
04/16	@ ATL	7-9L	9	2	Over
04/15	@ ATL	5-1W	8	1	Under
04/14	@ ATL	1-8L	6	0	Over

Team’s Batting Order

Washington Nationals	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 CJ Abrams	8.2	10.6	0.301	0.624	40.9%	103.2%	6.5%
#2 Joey Meneses	8.3	10.6	0.253	0.277	37.3%	65.1%	0.0%
#3 Jesse Winker	7.3	9.7	0.291	0.465	48.8%	95.3%	3.5%
#4 Riley Adams	7.3	9.5	0.25	0.458	33.3%	79.2%	4.2%
#5 Nick Senzel	7.1	9.4	0.2	0.5	26.7%	76.7%	10.0%
#7 Ildemaro Vargas	6.9	8.9	0.293	0.39	46.3%	85.4%	0.0%
#8 Trey Lipscomb	6.0	7.6	0.262	0.328	36.1%	68.9%	1.6%
#9 Jacob Young	6.0	7.5	0.309	0.364	38.2%	74.5%	0.0%

Miami Marlins	DK	FD	AVG	SLG	OBP	OPP	HR/Rate
#1 Luis Arraez	9.2	11.3	0.301	0.363	38.9%	75.2%	0.0%
#2 Bryan De La Cruz	8.4	10.7	0.252	0.426	29.6%	72.2%	4.3%
#3 Josh Bell	8.2	11.0	0.183	0.298	30.8%	60.6%	2.9%
#4 Jazz Chisholm Jr.	7.8	10.1	0.232	0.343	36.4%	70.7%	2.0%
#5 Tim Anderson	7.6	9.2	0.222	0.244	27.8%	52.2%	0.0%
#6 Emmanuel Rivera	7.0	8.6	0.235	0.255	35.3%	60.8%	0.0%
#8 Vidal Brujan	5.3	6.7	0.2	0.3	30.0%	60.0%	0.0%
#9 Nick Fortes	6.2	8.0	0.122	0.163	18.4%	34.7%	0.0%