Strategy and Stats for 04/15/24 MLB Daily Fantasy Slate

Today’s MLB fantasy slate is packed with action as 15 games are set to unfold, starting bright and early at 11:10 AM EST. Fantasy enthusiasts will have their eyes glued to the marquee matchup of the day, where the Atlanta Braves take on the Houston Astros at Minute Maid Park at 8:10 PM EST. With an Over/Under set at a whopping 10.0, this game promises a flurry of fantasy points, making it a pivotal focus for those looking to dominate their leagues. As we dive into the player projections, key matchups, and potential sleepers across today’s games, keep this high-scoring affair in mind, as it could be the difference-maker in your daily fantasy lineup.

Analyzing Top 1B Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5000), Blue Jays – Projected 13.8 pts

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has shown a consistent performance in his recent games, averaging 7.1 DraftKings points over the last ten games, a slight improvement over his previous ten-game stretch. Despite a minor dip in hits and walks, Guerrero Jr. has increased his home run rate, which boosts his fantasy value. Facing Nestor Cortes, who ranks 26th in hits allowed per game, Guerrero Jr. could capitalize on this matchup. His projected DFS value score of 2.8 indicates a strong value at his current salary, making him a solid choice for today’s games.

Freddie Freeman ($5800), Dodgers – Projected 13.4 pts

Freddie Freeman’s recent performance has seen a notable decline, with his DraftKings points per game dropping by nearly 50% in the last ten games compared to the ten before that. His hits, total bases, and runs have all decreased significantly, which is concerning for DFS players. However, facing Trevor Williams, who is second-worst in the league for hits allowed per game, might offer Freeman a chance to bounce back. Despite the tough recent stretch, his projected DFS value score of 2.3 still places him in the core value category, suggesting he might be worth considering due to the favorable pitching matchup.

Top Second Basemen Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Jose Altuve ($5400), Astros – Projected 12.4 pts

Jose Altuve’s recent performance has shown a notable uptick, making him a player to watch in today’s games. Over the last ten games, Altuve has averaged 11.3 DraftKings points, a significant improvement from his previous ten-game stretch of 8.67 points. This 30.3% increase is supported by a rise in hits per game from 1.22 to 1.6 and an impressive 172.7% increase in walks per game. Facing Charlie Morton, who ranks 29th in hits allowed per game, Altuve’s matchup looks favorable. His DFS value score of 2.3 places him in the core value category, suggesting he could be a solid choice for your lineup at a DraftKings salary of $5400.

Ozzie Albies ($5800), Braves – Projected 12.4 pts

Ozzie Albies, on the other hand, has seen a downturn in his recent performances. His last ten games have yielded an average of only 8.1 DraftKings points, a stark contrast to the 15.0 points from the previous set of ten games. This 46.0% decrease is mirrored across several key statistics, including a significant drop in total bases per game from 3.22 to 1.6 and a reduction in home runs per game. Despite facing Cristian Javier, who also ranks poorly in hits allowed per game, Albies’ recent form casts doubt on his potential impact. With a DFS value score of 2.1, he remains in the core value range but might be a riskier pick given his higher salary of $5800 and current slump.

Top Third Basemen Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Austin Riley ($5900), Braves – Projected 13.0 pts

Austin Riley has been a consistent performer in recent games, averaging 8.5 DraftKings points over his last 10 outings, showing a slight improvement from his previous 10-game stretch. Facing Cristian Javier, who ranks 34th in hits allowed per game, Riley’s matchup looks favorable. His ability to maintain a steady hit rate and increase in singles per game suggests potential for base accumulation, crucial for DFS scoring. With a DraftKings salary of $5900 and a projected point total leading to a DFS value score of 2.2, Riley stands out as a core value pick at third base today.

Rafael Devers ($9400), Red Sox – Projected 12.6 pts

Rafael Devers, despite a high DraftKings salary of $9400, has shown significant improvement in his recent performances. Over the last 10 games, Devers has averaged 7.1 DraftKings points, a substantial increase from 3.0 in the previous set of games. His total bases and runs have seen impressive increases, indicating his potential to exploit matchups, even against tougher pitchers. However, his high salary and a DFS value score of 1.3 position him as a risky choice, potentially not offering the best value for money today.

Analyzing Top Shortstop Options for Today’s DFS Slate

Bobby Witt Jr. ($6300), Royals – Projected 14.4 pts

Bobby Witt Jr. has been a notable player for the Royals, especially considering his recent performance in the context of fantasy points. Over his last ten games, Witt Jr. has averaged 10.9 points on DraftKings, showing a slight decline from his previous ten-game average of 13.78 points. Despite this dip, his ability to contribute across various categories, including hits and runs, makes him a valuable asset. Facing Mike Soroka, who ranks 9th in hits allowed per game, Witt Jr. might find opportunities to exploit. His projected DFS value score stands at 2.3, positioning him as a core value pick for today’s games.

Gunnar Henderson ($3700), Orioles – Projected 14.0 pts

Gunnar Henderson presents an intriguing option at shortstop for DFS players today. With a significantly lower DraftKings salary of $3700, Henderson has shown improvement in his recent performances, averaging 9.8 points over his last ten games, up from 8.33 in the previous set. This upward trend, combined with a matchup against Bailey Ober—who ranks 37th in hits allowed per game—suggests potential for continued success. Henderson’s ability to contribute in multiple categories, albeit modestly, along with his improved scoring, renders him an excellent pick. His DFS value score of 3.8 categorizes him as an elite value player for today’s slate.

Catcher Insights: Daily Fantasy Analysis

Adley Rutschman ($3000), Orioles – Projected 11.8 pts

Adley Rutschman’s recent performance has shown a dip compared to his previous 10 games, with a decrease in DraftKings points by -32.8% and FanDuel points by -37.6%. Despite this, his matchup against Bailey Ober, who ranks #37 in hits allowed per game, positions him for potential success. Rutschman’s ability to maintain a steady hit rate and slight increase in singles per game suggests underlying consistency. His projected DFS value score of 3.9 categorizes him as an elite value pick for today’s slate, especially considering his reasonable DraftKings salary of $3000.

Ryan Jeffers ($2900), Twins – Projected 11.8 pts

Ryan Jeffers, facing Corbin Burnes of the Orioles, presents a strong case for inclusion in DFS lineups. Despite a -19.8% drop in DraftKings points and a -17.8% decrease in FanDuel points over the last 10 games, Jeffers has shown resilience in his hitting, particularly with a stable home run rate. His matchup against Burnes, who allows 6.55 hits per game, might offer him opportunities to improve on his recent stats. With a DFS value score of 4.1, Jeffers stands out as an elite value at a DraftKings salary of $2900, making him a compelling choice for today’s games.

Top Outfielder Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Mike Trout ($4000), Angels – Projected 14.3 pts

Mike Trout continues to be a beacon of consistency and elite performance in the outfield for the Angels. Over his last ten games, Trout has averaged a robust 10.7 points on DraftKings, showing a notable improvement from his previous ten-game stretch where he averaged 9.11 points. This uptick in performance is highlighted by a 17.5% increase in DraftKings points per game and a 59.1% surge in runs per game. Facing Zach Eflin of the Rays, who ranks #33 in hits allowed per game, Trout’s matchup looks favorable. His ability to capitalize on walks, evidenced by a 51.5% increase, adds to his value. With a DraftKings salary of just $4000 and a DFS value score of 3.6, Trout is an elite option in today’s DFS contests.

Ronald Acuna Jr. ($6500), Braves – Projected 14.3 pts

Ronald Acuna Jr. has been a dynamic force for the Braves, though his recent performances show a slight dip compared to his explosive capabilities. Over the latest ten-game stretch, Acuna has averaged 10.2 DraftKings points, a decrease of 21.5% from the previous set of games. Despite this, Acuna’s ability to generate walks has improved by 36.4%, and he maintains a solid run production, albeit slightly down by 18.9%. Facing Cristian Javier of the Astros, who is ranked #34 in hits allowed per game, presents a challenging but potentially rewarding matchup. Given his higher DraftKings salary of $6500 and a DFS value score of 2.2, Acuna represents a core value pick with a strong upside.