Strategy and Stats for 04/18/24 Daily Fantasy MLB Slate

As the clock strikes 1:10 PM EST today, the MLB fantasy slate kicks off with an exhilarating lineup of 5 games, promising a spectacle of skill and strategy. Among these, the spotlight shines brightly on Fenway Park where the Cleveland Guardians clash with the Boston Red Sox at 1:35 PM EST. With an Over/Under set at a lofty 9.5, this game is anticipated to be a treasure trove for hitters, making it a focal point for fantasy players scouting for high-scoring athletes. As we delve deeper into today’s matchups, keep an eye on the top projected players at each position, whose recent performances and matchups suggest they are poised to rack up significant fantasy points. This comprehensive analysis will not only enhance your lineup decisions but also provide a strategic edge in your daily fantasy sports endeavors.

Top 1B Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Wilmer Flores ($3600), Giants – Projected 12.2 pts

Wilmer Flores has been navigating a rough patch with a significant drop in his performance metrics over the last 10 games compared to the previous set. His DraftKings points per game plummeted by 61.4%, and his hits per game saw a 43.8% decrease. Despite these struggles, Flores is facing Brandon Pfaadt of the Diamondbacks today, a pitcher known for allowing a high number of hits, ranking third in the MLB with 10.22 hits allowed per game. This matchup could potentially favor Flores, who is projected to score 12.2 points today. Given his DraftKings salary and the favorable opponent, Flores holds an impressive DFS value score of 3.4, categorizing him as an elite value pick for today’s slate.

Josh Naylor ($5000), Indians – Projected 11.9 pts

Josh Naylor, on the other hand, has shown a notable improvement in his recent performances. Over the last 10 games, his DraftKings points per game increased by 29.0%, and his total bases per game grew by 20.0%. Naylor’s ability to capitalize on scoring opportunities is evident, with a 112.1% increase in runs per game. Facing Tanner Houck of the Red Sox—who ranks eighth in hits allowed per game with 8.83—Naylor’s recent uptick in home runs and hits suggests he could exploit this matchup. Despite a higher salary of $5000, Naylor’s projected output and recent form give him a DFS value score of 2.4, making him a core value player in today’s fantasy lineup.

Top Second Basemen Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Ketel Marte ($5500), Diamondbacks – Projected 13.2 pts

Ketel Marte has shown consistent performance, averaging 9.0 DraftKings points over his last ten games. Despite a slight dip from his previous ten-game average of 10.56 points, Marte’s ability to adapt and score is evident. His recent stats show a notable increase in doubles per game, up 36.4%, and a stable walk rate, improving by 21.2%. Facing Logan Webb, who ranks 14th in hits allowed per game, Marte’s matchup looks favorable. With a DraftKings salary of $5500 and a projected point total of 13.2, his DFS value score stands at 2.4, making him a core value pick for today’s games.

Andres Gimenez ($4800), Indians – Projected 12.9 pts

Andres Gimenez, though experiencing a recent downturn in his performance with a 39.7% decrease in DraftKings points per game compared to his previous ten games, still holds potential. His singles rate has seen a significant increase of 60.7%, indicating potential for base accumulation. Facing Tanner Houck, who is 8th in hits allowed per game, could provide Gimenez with opportunities to improve his stats. With a current DraftKings salary of $4800 and a projected point total of 12.9, Gimenez’s DFS value score is 2.7, categorizing him as a strong value pick for today’s lineup.

Top Third Basemen Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Jose Ramirez ($5800), Cleveland – Projected 13.8 pts

Jose Ramirez, despite Cleveland’s low rank in generating fantasy points, shows a promising setup against Boston’s Tanner Houck. Over the last ten games, Ramirez has seen a slight dip in performance with an average of 7.4 DraftKings points per game, a decline of 20.7% from his previous ten-game stretch. However, his matchup against Houck, who ranks eighth in hits allowed per game, could be an opportunity for Ramirez to capitalize and improve his stats. His DFS value score of 2.4 categorizes him as a core value pick, making him a solid choice for today’s lineup.

Christopher Morel ($8000), Chicago Cubs – Projected 11.7 pts

Christopher Morel’s recent performances have been underwhelming, with a significant drop in his fantasy output, averaging only 5.2 DraftKings points over his last ten games—a sharp 52.7% decrease from the prior period. Facing Miami’s A.J. Puk might not be enough to turn the tide given Morel’s recent slump and high salary. His DFS value score stands at 1.5, positioning him as a player with bad value for today’s games. Fantasy managers might consider other options at third base to maximize their points and budget efficiency.

Daily Fantasy Sports: Shortstop Analysis

Dansby Swanson ($8600), Cubs – Projected 11.6 pts

Dansby Swanson has seen a downturn in his performance over the last ten games, averaging only 5.3 DraftKings points compared to 8.56 in the previous set, marking a -38.1% change. His hitting metrics have similarly declined, with hits per game dropping by -21.3%. Despite facing A.J. Puk, who ranks 9th in hits allowed per game, Swanson’s recent slump and a high salary cap challenge his value. His DFS value score stands at 1.3, indicating a risky pick for today’s games.

Jose Caballero ($3300), Rays – Projected 9.3 pts

Contrastingly, Jose Caballero has shown a promising uptick in his recent performances, with a 42.6% increase in DraftKings points per game over the last ten games. His total bases per game have more than doubled, a significant rise of 117.9%. Facing Reid Detmers, who is also generous in allowing hits, Caballero’s lower salary and improved stats offer a 2.8 DFS value score, making him a strong value pick for today’s slate.

Top Catcher Picks for Today’s MLB Daily Fantasy Slate

Connor Wong ($2800), Red Sox – Projected 10.1 pts

Connor Wong has shown a remarkable uptick in his performance, making him a standout choice in today’s fantasy lineup. Over his last ten games, Wong has averaged 7.8 DraftKings points, a significant improvement from his previous average of 2.0 points. This 290% increase in fantasy output is further highlighted by his 330.5% increase in FanDuel points during the same period. His hits per game have skyrocketed by 400%, and his total bases per game have impressively increased by 854.5%. Facing Ben Lively of the CLE, who ranks fourth in hits allowed per game, Wong’s matchup is favorable, enhancing his potential to accumulate points. With a DraftKings salary of just $2800 and a projected point total of 10.1, Wong’s DFS value score stands at an 3.6, categorizing him as an elite value pick for today’s games.

Bo Naylor ($4000), Indians – Projected 10.1 pts

Bo Naylor, on the other hand, presents a mixed bag in terms of recent performance. His last ten games have seen a decrease in DraftKings points per game by 28.6% and a 32.5% drop in FanDuel points compared to the previous ten-game stretch. Despite these declines, Naylor has managed to slightly improve his hits per game by 7.1%. However, his runs per game have decreased significantly by 66.3%, and his home runs per game have also seen a decrease of 39.4%. Facing Tanner Houck of the BOS, who ranks eighth in hits allowed per game, Naylor still holds potential due to his matchup. With a DraftKings salary of $4000 and a projected point total of 10.1, Naylor’s DFS value score is 2.5, making him a strong value pick for today’s slate.

Top Outfielders to Watch in Today’s DFS Slate

Corbin Carroll ($5600), Diamondbacks – Projected 14.4 pts

Corbin Carroll has been a beacon of consistency for the Diamondbacks, especially in his recent performances. Over his last ten games, Carroll has notched an impressive average of 10.1 DraftKings points per game, showing a significant improvement from his previous set of ten games where he averaged 7.78 points. This uptick represents a 29.8% increase, highlighting his rising form. His ability to hit safely has surged by 49.3%, and his total bases per game have jumped by 57.3%. Facing Logan Webb might seem daunting, but Webb’s ranking of #14 in hits allowed per game gives Carroll a viable shot at maintaining his upward trajectory. With a DFS value score of 2.6, Carroll stands out as a strong value pick in today’s fantasy lineup.

Mike Trout ($6200), Angels – Projected 13.4 pts

Mike Trout, a perennial fantasy favorite, continues to demonstrate why he’s one of the best in the game. Trout has averaged 14.0 DraftKings points over his last ten games, a robust 61.5% increase from his earlier performances. His power at the plate is evident, with an increase in home runs per game by 51.5% and total bases by 56.4%. Despite the Angels’ low rank in fantasy point generation, Trout’s personal stats paint a different picture of his potential impact. Facing Ryan Pepiot, who ranks #20 in hits allowed per game, Trout could exploit this matchup to great effect. However, his DFS value score of 2.2 places him in the core value category, making him a slightly riskier, yet potentially rewarding, play.