Strategy and Stats for 04/21/24 MLB Daily Fantasy Slate

As the clock strikes 1:35 PM EST today, the MLB fantasy landscape ignites with a bustling slate of 16 games, promising a thrilling day of baseball action. Among these, a spotlight shines on the picturesque Coors Field, where the Seattle Mariners and Colorado Rockies are set to clash at 3:10 PM EST in what’s anticipated to be a hitter’s paradise, boasting an Over/Under of 11.0. This high-altitude duel not only sets the stage for potentially explosive batting performances but also serves as a critical pivot for fantasy managers looking to capitalize on the day’s matchups. Stay tuned as we delve deeper into each game, highlighting the top projected players at every position, ensuring your fantasy lineup is both formidable and optimized.

Top 1B Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Bryce Harper ($6000), Phillies – Projected 13.8 pts

Despite Philadelphia’s low ranking in generating fantasy points, Bryce Harper remains a pivotal player in daily fantasy sports. Over his last ten games, Harper has seen a dip in performance with an average of 6.4 DraftKings points per game, a stark contrast to his previous 10-game average of 10.33 points. This decline is reflected across several metrics, including a significant drop in home runs and total bases. However, facing the Chicago White Sox, who rank 54th in hits allowed per game, Harper has a rebound opportunity. His projected DFS value score is 2.3, placing him in the core value category for today’s games.

Paul Goldschmidt ($4800), Cardinals – Projected 12.7 pts

Paul Goldschmidt’s recent performance might raise concerns, with a 50.7% decrease in DraftKings points per game compared to his previous ten games. His hitting metrics have similarly suffered, including a complete absence of home runs in the latest stretch. Despite these struggles, facing Colin Rea of Milwaukee—who ranks 27th in hits allowed per game—provides a potential upside. With a DraftKings salary of $4800 and a projected point total of 12.7, Goldschmidt’s DFS value score is 2.6, indicating strong value and making him a considerable option for today’s roster.

Top Second Basemen Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Jose Altuve ($5300), Astros – Projected 13.9 pts

Jose Altuve continues to be a pivotal player for fantasy managers, especially in today’s matchup against Mitchell Parker of the Nationals. Over his last ten games, Altuve has shown a significant uptick in performance, averaging 11.8 DraftKings points per game, a 11.7% increase from his previous ten-game stretch. His ability to consistently hit, evidenced by an average of 1.7 hits per game recently, up 27.8% from before, makes him a valuable asset. Despite a slight decline in home runs and walks, his overall base-reaching ability boosts his DFS value to a 2.6, marking him as a strong value pick at second base today.

Jorge Polanco ($8800), Mariners – Projected 12.8 pts

Jorge Polanco, despite the Mariners’ overall struggles in fantasy point generation, has shown some personal improvement in his recent performances. His last ten games have seen a dramatic increase in DraftKings points per game to 7.3, a 68.6% jump from his earlier games. Notably, his walks have surged by an impressive 490.9%, and his runs scored have also seen a significant rise. However, his high DraftKings salary of $8800 paired with a DFS value score of 1.5 positions him as a risky choice, potentially not justifying the high investment required for his inclusion in today’s lineups.

Top Third Basemen Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Austin Riley ($9000), Atlanta Braves – Projected 13.5 pts

Austin Riley has shown fluctuating performance in his recent games, with a noticeable dip in his fantasy output. Over the last ten games, Riley’s DraftKings points per game have decreased by 24.5% compared to the previous ten, dropping from 10.33 to 7.8. This decline is mirrored in his FanDuel performance as well, where his points fell by 26.9%. Despite these drops, Riley’s ability to generate walks has increased significantly, showing an 81.8% improvement. However, his power metrics, particularly home runs per game, have taken a steep decline, impacting his total base count. Facing Nathan Eovaldi, who ranks 42nd in hits allowed per game, Riley’s matchup might seem favorable, but his recent form and high salary suggest caution. His DFS value score stands at 1.5, indicating a risky pick at his current price.

Jeimer Candelario ($3800), Cincinnati Reds – Projected 12.5 pts

Jeimer Candelario presents a more intriguing option in today’s DFS landscape. Despite Cincinnati’s low rank in generating fantasy points, Candelario has managed to slightly improve his performance in the last ten games compared to the ten before that. His DraftKings points increased by 7.4%, and his FanDuel points saw a more substantial rise of 13.4%. Notably, his walks have more than doubled, which could be a sign of improved plate discipline or a shift in how pitchers are approaching him. While his power numbers have seen some volatility, his overall performance relative to his low salary offers a strong value. Facing Jose Soriano, who also ranks poorly in hits allowed per game, Candelario could capitalize on this matchup. His DFS value score is 3.3, making him an elite value pick for today’s games.

Daily Fantasy Sports: Shortstop Analysis

J.P. Crawford ($6800), Mariners – Projected 13.7 pts

J.P. Crawford has shown a notable uptick in his performance over the last ten games, making him a player to watch in today’s DFS slate. With a 2.0 DFS value score, Crawford represents a core value pick against Cal Quantrill of the Rockies, who has been relatively generous in allowing hits. Over the recent stretch, Crawford has increased his hits per game by over 100% compared to the previous ten games, and his total bases per game have surged by 53.8%. Although his home run rate has slightly decreased, his consistent contact hitting and ability to get on base (0.5 walks per game) enhance his potential to contribute significantly in DFS formats today.

Trea Turner ($6300), Phillies – Projected 13.7 pts

Trea Turner, priced at a slightly lower bracket than Crawford, offers a 2.2 DFS value score and comes into today’s game with an impressive form line. Turner has increased his DraftKings points per game by 37.5% in the last ten games compared to the ten before that. His ability to hit doubles has notably improved, showing a 172.7% increase, coupled with a solid home run rate and total bases per game at 2.9. Facing a pitcher from the White Sox who ranks #54 in hits allowed per game, Turner’s multi-hit potential makes him a strong candidate for today’s DFS lineups, promising both consistency and upside.

Catcher’s Corner: Key DFS Insights

J.T. Realmuto ($5100), Phillies – Projected 12.4 pts

J.T. Realmuto, despite a recent dip in his performance metrics, still holds a 2.4 DFS value score, positioning him as a core value pick in today’s slate. Over the last ten games, Realmuto’s production has seen a decrease, with his DraftKings points per game dropping by 34.1% from 7.89 to 5.2. Similarly, his FanDuel points have fallen by 30.8%. His hitting has also suffered, with a significant 42.6% drop in hits per game. However, Realmuto’s projected points stand at a robust 12.4 against the White Sox, who rank 54th in hits allowed per game, suggesting a potential bounce-back or at least a stable fantasy output. Realmuto’s ability to walk and score runs, maintaining a slight increase in runs per game recently, underscores his capability to contribute across multiple categories.

Mitch Garver ($6400), Mariners – Projected 12.0 pts

Mitch Garver’s recent performances suggest a positive trend, making him a player to watch, albeit with a 1.9 DFS value score indicating a riskier play given his high salary. Garver has improved his DraftKings points by 50.2% in the last ten games, climbing from 3.33 to 5.0 points per game. His FanDuel points have similarly seen a significant rise of 53.7%. Noteworthy is his walk rate, which has more than tripled, and his runs per game, which have more than doubled, reflecting his increased on-base presence and scoring potential. Despite these improvements, Garver’s total bases have only marginally increased, and his ability to hit for extra bases has diminished, with doubles per game dropping to zero. Facing Cal Quantrill of the Rockies, who ranks 14th in hits allowed per game, Garver’s matchup could either exploit Quantrill’s vulnerabilities or highlight the limitations in Garver’s recent stat line.

Top Outfielder Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Yordan Alvarez ($5600), Astros – Projected 15.3 pts

Yordan Alvarez, despite a recent dip in performance, remains a compelling choice in daily fantasy sports. Over his last ten games, Alvarez has averaged 6.3 DraftKings points, a significant drop from his previous average of 11.89 points. However, his matchup against Mitchell Parker, who ranks 42nd in hits allowed per game, presents a potential rebound opportunity. Alvarez’s ability to adjust and capitalize on weaker pitching could be key. His projected DFS value score of 2.7 indicates strong value, making him a viable pick for today’s games.

Kyle Tucker ($5500), Astros – Projected 14.8 pts

Kyle Tucker shows a promising uptrend in his recent performances, averaging 13.2 DraftKings points over the last ten games, a substantial improvement from 8.56 in the previous set. Tucker’s consistent hitting, combined with an increase in walks and runs, positions him well against Mitchell Parker. His ability to leverage the pitcher’s tendency to allow hits could result in valuable fantasy points. With a DFS value score of 2.7, Tucker stands out as a strong value pick for today’s lineup.