Strategy and Stats for 06/30/24 MLB Daily Fantasy Slate

Today’s MLB fantasy slate is brimming with excitement as 15 games kick off starting at 11:35 AM EST, promising a full day of baseball action. The spotlight shines on Fenway Park where the San Diego Padres face the Boston Red Red Sox at 1:35 PM EST in what’s expected to be a high-scoring affair, with an Over/Under set at 9.5. Fantasy players should keep an eye on key performers like the Padres’ power hitters and Boston’s consistent batters, who are poised to rack up points in this hitter-friendly matchup. As we delve deeper into today’s games, we’ll explore top projected players at each position, ensuring your fantasy lineup is both formidable and optimized for success.

Top 1B Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Freddie Freeman ($5900), Dodgers – Projected 12.8 pts

Freddie Freeman has been a consistent performer for the Dodgers, averaging 8.9 DraftKings points over his last ten games. Despite a slight dip in performance compared to his previous ten-game stretch, where he averaged 10.11 points, Freeman’s ability to generate hits and runs remains solid. He’s facing a pitcher from SF who has a high rate of hits allowed, ranking #482 with 6.0 hits per game. This matchup could potentially boost Freeman’s DFS output. His current DraftKings salary reflects a 2.2 DFS value score, positioning him as a core value pick for today’s games.

Ryan Mountcastle ($8000), Orioles – Projected 12.5 pts

Ryan Mountcastle shows a remarkable improvement in his recent performance, with a 74.6% increase in DraftKings points per game over his last ten games compared to the ten before that. His current average stands at 6.6 points per game. Although his hitting has improved, with significant increases in total bases and hits per game, his high DraftKings salary of $8000 and a DFS value score of 1.6 make him a less favorable option. Mountcastle’s performance surge is notable, but his high salary could be a deterrent for DFS players looking for better value.

Analyzing Top Second Basemen in Today’s DFS Slate

Ozzie Albies ($9400), Braves – Projected 12.9 pts

Ozzie Albies, despite the Braves’ overall struggles in fantasy production, continues to be a beacon of consistency. Over his last ten games, Albies has managed an average of 6.9 DraftKings points per game, slightly down by 3.0% from his previous ten-game average of 7.11. His FanDuel performance also saw a minor dip, scoring 8.98 points per game recently compared to 9.36 previously. Notably, Albies has shown significant improvement in his walk rate, which has surged by 172.7%, although his total bases and runs scored have seen declines of 15.7% and 40.3%, respectively. Despite these fluctuations, Albies’ projected DFS value score stands at 1.4, indicating a challenging value at his current salary.

Marcus Semien ($9000), Rangers – Projected 12.9 pts

Marcus Semien’s recent performance has seen a stark decline, which is reflected in his latest fantasy outputs. His DraftKings points plummeted by 63.7%, dropping from an average of 8.0 points in the previous ten games to just 2.9 in the latest stretch. This downturn is mirrored on FanDuel, where he scored only 3.82 points per game recently, a 64.4% decrease from 10.74. Semien’s hits and runs have significantly decreased, with a 35.9% drop in hits per game and an alarming 85.1% decrease in runs per game. His inability to walk in recent games further compounds the issue, marking a 100% decrease. With these metrics, Semien’s DFS value score is also calculated at 1.4, suggesting his current price may not offer the best investment for fantasy managers.

Top Third Basemen Picks for Today’s MLB DFS Slate

Manny Machado ($5400), Padres – Projected 13.4 pts

Manny Machado has been on a tear over his last ten games, averaging a robust 12.9 DraftKings points per game, a significant increase from the 3.0 points in the previous ten-game stretch. This 330% increase in fantasy output is particularly impressive considering the Padres’ overall rank of #202 in MLB for generating fantasy points. Facing Josh Winckowski, who ranks #151 in hits allowed per game with 9.79, Machado’s matchup looks favorable. His recent performance metrics, including a 117.9% increase in hits per game and a staggering 809.1% increase in runs per game, suggest he’s finding his stride at the plate. With a 2.5 DFS value score, Machado stands out as a strong value pick for today’s slate.

Rafael Devers ($6000), Red Sox – Projected 13.0 pts

Rafael Devers, while slightly more expensive, presents a solid option at third base. Over his last ten games, Devers has averaged 9.9 DraftKings points, slightly underperforming compared to his previous ten-game stretch where he averaged 10.0 points. Despite this minor dip, Devers has shown resilience in his hitting, with a modest 10% increase in hits per game and an 81.8% increase in home runs per game. Facing Matt Waldron of the Padres, who allows 7.76 hits per game and ranks #340 in this category, Devers could capitalize on this matchup. However, his 2.2 DFS value score categorizes him as a core value player, making him a riskier but potentially rewarding play.

Top Shortstop Picks for Today’s MLB Daily Fantasy Slate

Bobby Witt Jr. ($6400), Royals – Projected 14.6 pts

Bobby Witt Jr. has shown fluctuating performance in his recent outings, with a noticeable dip in his fantasy output. Over the last ten games, his DraftKings points per game have decreased by 26.7% from 7.78 to 5.7. Despite this, his upcoming matchup against None of the CLE, who ranks significantly low in hits allowed per game, presents a potential rebound opportunity. His current DFS value score stands at 2.3, placing him in the core value category. This suggests that while Witt Jr. might not be the standout performer, his lower production could be balanced by a favorable pitching matchup, making him a strategic, if not stellar, pick for today’s games.

Elly De La Cruz ($6300), Reds – Projected 13.4 pts

Elly De La Cruz is on an upward trajectory, improving across several key performance metrics. In his last ten games, De La Cruz has increased his DraftKings points per game by 13.4%, hitting an average of 12.6 points compared to 11.11 in the previous set of games. His ability to secure bases with a 62.9% increase in total bases per game highlights his potential to rack up fantasy points. Facing Lance Lynn of the STL, who is not among the top pitchers in terms of restricting hits, De La Cruz’s current form could exploit this matchup. His DFS value score is 2.1, categorizing him as a core value player. While slightly below Witt Jr., De La Cruz offers a robust option for fantasy managers looking for a player with momentum and a favorable opponent.

Catcher Spotlight: DFS Analysis

Adley Rutschman ($9600), Orioles – Projected 13.1 pts

Adley Rutschman has shown a notable uptick in his performance over the last 10 games, with a significant improvement in hits, singles, and walks compared to the previous 10-game stretch. His DraftKings points per game increased by 21.7% to 9.2, while his FanDuel points rose by 12.8% to 11.96. The increase in total bases per game by 31.9% and a dramatic rise in runs per game by 263.6% highlight his potential impact. Despite these improvements, his projected DFS value score stands at 1.4, suggesting caution due to his high salary relative to expected output.

William Contreras ($5500), Brewers – Projected 11.9 pts

William Contreras, facing Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs, who ranks 103rd in hits allowed per game, has experienced a downturn in his recent performance metrics. His DraftKings points have decreased by 36.1% to 4.4, and his FanDuel points have similarly dropped by 35.6% to 5.56. Additionally, there’s been a notable reduction in hits per game and total bases. Despite these declines, his projected DFS value score is 2.2. This score, combined with a lower salary, might make him a core value pick for some DFS lineups, particularly if looking for a budget-friendly option at the catcher position.

Top Outfielder Picks for Today’s MLB Daily Fantasy Slate

Yordan Alvarez ($5700), Astros – Projected 14.1 pts

Yordan Alvarez, despite a recent dip in his performance metrics, remains a key player in today’s fantasy lineup. Over his last 10 games, Alvarez has seen a decrease in most categories compared to the previous 10, with his DraftKings points per game dropping by 30.9% to 9.6 and his FanDuel points by 34.1% to 12.37. However, his matchup against Luis Severino, who ranks #380 in hits allowed per game with 7.37, positions Alvarez for a potential rebound. Notably, his singles have increased by 81.8%, indicating potential for base accumulation. With a 2.5 DFS value score, Alvarez stands as a strong value pick for today’s games.

Corbin Carroll ($5000), Diamondbacks – Projected 13.7 pts

Corbin Carroll has faced significant challenges in his recent performances, with a stark 64.4% decrease in DraftKings points per game over the last 10 games, now averaging only 3.6. Similarly, his FanDuel points have plummeted by 65.9% to 4.56. Despite these struggles, Carroll’s upcoming game against Luis Medina—who allows 9.38 hits per game—might offer him a chance to improve. His recent games have shown a severe drop in hits, walks, and runs, but his stable home run rate could play to his advantage in DFS. With a 2.7 DFS value score, Carroll offers strong potential value, especially considering his lower DraftKings salary.