Strategy and Stats for 07/09/24 Daily Fantasy MLB Slate

As the clock strikes 6:35 PM EST today, the MLB fantasy landscape ignites with a thrilling 15-game slate, promising a spectacle of skill and strategy. Among the highlights, the Pittsburgh Pirates are set to clash with the Milwaukee Brewers at American Family Field at 8:10 PM EST. With an Over/Under set at 8.5, this game is anticipated to be a treasure trove for hitters, making it a focal point for fantasy enthusiasts. As we delve into today’s matchups, keep an eye on the top projected players at each position, whose recent performances and matchups position them as pivotal pieces in crafting your ultimate fantasy lineup. Stay tuned as we break down each game, offering you the insights needed to dominate your daily fantasy sports contests.

Top 1B Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Jeimer Candelario ($4300), Reds – Projected 11.8 pts

Jeimer Candelario’s recent performance may not jump off the page at first glance, but a deeper dive reveals a potentially undervalued asset in today’s DFS contests. Over his last 10 games, Candelario has seen a significant dip in production compared to the previous set of 10, with his DraftKings points per game plummeting from 13.0 to 4.4. However, facing Cal Quantrill, who ranks 321st in hits allowed per game, presents a favorable matchup that could see Candelario bounce back. His current form juxtaposed with his opponent’s vulnerability gives him a DFS value score of 2.7, categorizing him as a strong value pick for today’s slate.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5100), Blue Jays – Projected 11.6 pts

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. continues to be a beacon of consistency and power at the plate. Over his recent stretch, Guerrero Jr. has improved his performance, elevating his DraftKings points from 9.56 to 11.5 per game. His ability to consistently hit and score runs, coupled with a slight increase in doubles and a stable home run rate, makes him a formidable choice. Despite facing Blake Snell, who ranks better in hits allowed, Guerrero Jr.’s robust stats and slight improvements in key areas give him a DFS value score of 2.3, making him a core value player in today’s games.

Top Second Basemen Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Marcus Semien ($4800), Texas Rangers – Projected 14.2 pts

Marcus Semien has shown a significant uptick in his performance over the last ten games, making him a compelling pick for today’s DFS lineup. With an average of 5.7 DraftKings points recently, up from 3.56 in the previous set of games, Semien’s upward trajectory is notable. Particularly impressive are his increases in singles and walks per game, which have more than doubled. Facing Roansy Contreras, who has been generous in allowing hits, positions Semien well to exploit these weaknesses. Given his current form and matchup, Semien’s DFS value score stands at an 3.0, categorizing him as an elite value play at second base today.

Jose Altuve ($5400), Houston Astros – Projected 14.1 pts

Jose Altuve remains a powerhouse at second base, consistently delivering high fantasy points. Over his last ten games, Altuve has maintained an impressive average of 11.1 DraftKings points, a slight increase from his previous 9.22. His ability to secure hits has risen by nearly 40%, and despite a slight dip in doubles and runs, his overall performance remains strong. Facing Trevor Rogers today, whose stats are middling in terms of hits allowed, Altuve is poised to capitalize. His DFS value score is 2.6, marking him as a strong value pick for today’s games.

Top 3B Picks for Today’s MLB Daily Fantasy Slate

Rafael Devers ($6200), Red Sox – Projected 13.9 pts

Rafael Devers continues to be a powerhouse at the hot corner for the Red Sox. Over the last ten games, Devers has been on a tear, averaging 15.8 DraftKings points per game, a significant increase from his previous ten-game stretch of 7.33 points. This surge in performance, highlighted by a 445.5% increase in home runs per game, positions Devers as a compelling pick, especially against the Oakland Athletics’ pitching, which ranks #380.0 in hits allowed per game. With a DFS value score of 2.2, Devers offers core value on today’s slate.

Alex Bregman ($4200), Astros – Projected 11.3 pts

Alex Bregman of the Astros presents a strong value play in today’s matchups. Despite a slight dip in his last ten games, where he averaged 7.5 DraftKings points compared to 8.22 in the prior set, Bregman’s overall performance against pitchers like Trevor Rogers of Miami—who allows 10.25 hits per game—suggests potential for rebound. His DFS value score of 2.7 underscores his strong value, making him a smart budget-friendly option at third base.

Top Shortstop Picks for Today’s MLB Daily Fantasy Slate

Bobby Witt Jr. ($6500), Royals – Projected 15.6 pts

Bobby Witt Jr. has been on a tear recently, averaging 13.2 DraftKings points over his last ten games, a significant increase from his previous ten-game stretch. His performance metrics show substantial improvements across the board, with notable spikes in hits, singles, and home runs per game. Facing a pitcher from STL who ranks #246 in hits allowed per game, Witt Jr.’s matchup looks favorable. His DFS value score of 2.4 positions him as a core value play today. His projected 15.6 points for a $6500 salary on DraftKings makes him an intriguing option for any DFS lineup.

Elly De La Cruz ($6400), Reds – Projected 14.6 pts

Elly De La Cruz, although experiencing a slight dip in his hitting metrics compared to his previous performances, still holds a solid DFS potential today. Over the last ten games, he averaged 11.6 DraftKings points, showing resilience despite tougher matchups. His ability to contribute across various categories, including triples and walks, enhances his fantasy value. Facing Cal Quantrill of the COL, who has a high rank for hits allowed, De La Cruz could capitalize on this matchup. With a DFS value score of 2.3, he remains a core value pick with a projected 14.6 points for today’s game.

Catcher Insights: Daily Fantasy Analysis

Cal Raleigh ($4400), Mariners – Projected 12.3 pts

Cal Raleigh of the Seattle Mariners shows a promising uptrend in his recent performances. Over the last ten games, Raleigh has notched an average of 7.3 DraftKings points, a significant improvement from his previous 6.11 points, marking a 19.5% increase. His hitting has seen a remarkable boost, with his hits per game nearly doubling from 0.44 to 0.8. This improvement is crucial as he faces None of the SD, who has a relatively high rank of #136 in hits allowed per game at 10.59. Raleigh’s consistency and upward trajectory in fantasy scoring, coupled with a favorable matchup, render him a strong play. His DFS value score of 2.8 indicates strong value at his current salary.

Danny Jansen ($4100), Blue Jays – Projected 11.1 pts

Danny Jansen, on the other hand, has experienced a dip in his recent performances for the Toronto Blue Jays. His last ten games have seen a decrease in DraftKings points, dropping from 4.0 to 2.1, a 47.5% decline. His hitting metrics have similarly regressed, with hits per game falling by 31.8%. Facing Blake Snell of the SF, who allows an average of 12.17 hits per game, might seem like an opportunity, but Jansen’s current form suggests caution. His DFS value score of 2.7 places him just into the core value category, indicating potential but also risk given his recent downturn.

Top Outfielders to Watch in Today’s DFS Slate

Jarren Duran ($5900), Red Sox – Projected 14.3 pts

Jarren Duran’s recent performance has shown a notable dip compared to his earlier games. With an average of 6.9 DraftKings points in the last ten games, down from 13.89 in the previous set, his output has decreased by 50.3%. Despite this, his upcoming matchup against the Oakland Athletics, a team that ranks poorly in hits allowed, could be a turning point. Duran’s ability to capitalize on this weakness will be crucial, especially considering his 2.4 DFS value score, which places him in the core value category. His recent struggles at the plate, including a 60.7% decrease in hits per game, need to be reversed for him to maximize his potential in today’s game.

Yordan Alvarez ($5700), Astros – Projected 13.8 pts

Yordan Alvarez, in contrast, has been on an upward trajectory, averaging 14.1 DraftKings points over his last ten games, a significant improvement of 58.6% over his prior ten-game stretch. Facing Trevor Rogers of Miami—who has been relatively generous in allowing hits—Alvarez’s prospects look promising. His performance metrics, such as a 354.5% increase in doubles per game and a 263.6% boost in walks per game, underscore his potential to exploit matchups and rack up fantasy points. With a DFS value score of 2.4, Alvarez sits firmly as a core value pick, but his recent surge suggests he could offer even greater value.