Strategy and Stats for 07/12/24 Daily Fantasy MLB Slate

As the clock strikes 6:40 PM EST today, the MLB fantasy landscape ignites with a thrilling 15-game slate, promising a spectacle of skill and strategy. Spotlighting the evening, fantasy aficionados are zeroing in on the Miami Marlins as they gear up to face the Cincinnati Reds at the iconic Great American Ball Park. With the game’s Over/Under set tantalizingly at 9.5, expectations are sky-high for a slugfest. This high-scoring forecast elevates hitters from both teams to top fantasy picks, with pitchers facing a challenging night ahead. As we delve deeper into today’s matchups, keep an eye on emerging trends and standout performers poised to rack up points in your fantasy rosters.

Top First Basemen Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Bryce Harper ($6000), Phillies – Projected 13.8 pts

Bryce Harper has been a beacon of consistency for the Phillies, especially in his recent performances. Over the last ten games, Harper has elevated his game, averaging 14.4 DraftKings points, a significant improvement from his previous ten-game average of 9.89 points. This uptick is highlighted by a remarkable 354.5% increase in home runs per game and a 71.2% increase in total bases. Facing Hogan Harris, who ranks poorly in hits allowed per game, Harper’s matchup is favorable, underlining his potential to exploit these weaknesses. With a DFS value score of 2.3, Harper stands out as a core value pick today.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($4800), Blue Jays – Projected 12.9 pts

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.’s recent form might raise concerns, with a stark decrease in his performance metrics over the last ten games. His DraftKings points plummeted by 65.1% compared to the previous ten games, coupled with significant drops in hits, doubles, and home runs. Despite these struggles, Guerrero’s matchup against a pitcher from Arizona, who has a high rate of hits allowed per game, might offer him a chance to rebound. His DFS value score of 2.7 positions him as another core value player who could potentially provide unexpected returns if he capitalizes on this opportunity.

Top Second Basemen Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Jose Altuve ($5200), Astros – Projected 13.3 pts

Jose Altuve’s recent performance shows a dip compared to his earlier games, with a decrease in DraftKings points per game from 13.33 to 7.6, a significant -43.0% change. Despite this, his matchup against Andrew Heaney, who ranks #298 in hits allowed per game, positions Altuve for a potential rebound. His DFS value score of 2.6 indicates strong value, making him a viable pick for today’s slate. His ability to capitalize on Heaney’s weaknesses could be key in maximizing his fantasy output.

Ketel Marte ($5400), Diamondbacks – Projected 12.6 pts

Ketel Marte has shown a slight decrease in performance with an 8.6 DraftKings points per game in his last 10 outings, down -10.0% from the previous 10 games. However, his consistent hitting and an increase in walks, up 218.2%, highlight his potential to contribute significantly in today’s game. With a DFS value score of 2.3, Marte offers core value. His ability to get on base and score runs can be crucial for fantasy managers looking for a reliable second baseman.

Top Third Basemen Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Austin Riley ($5300), Braves – Projected 12.2 pts

Austin Riley has been showing a solid performance in the recent games, making him a noteworthy pick for today’s DFS lineup. Over the last ten games, Riley has seen a significant improvement in his performance metrics, with a 23.0% increase in DraftKings points per game and a 32.7% increase in total bases per game compared to the previous ten games. His consistent hitting, with an average of 1.3 hits per game recently, adds to his reliability. With a DraftKings salary of $5300 and a projected point total of 12.2, Riley holds a 2.3 DFS value score, positioning him as a core value pick for today’s games.

Jose Ramirez ($6300), Indians – Projected 11.5 pts

Jose Ramirez, on the other hand, has experienced a downturn in his recent performances. His DraftKings points per game have plummeted by 56.4%, and his total bases per game have decreased dramatically by 70.0% in the last ten games compared to the games 11-20. This sharp decline is reflected in his reduced hitting stats, with only 0.8 hits per game recently. Despite his higher DraftKings salary of $6300, Ramirez’s projected points stand at 11.5, resulting in a 1.8 DFS value score. This marks him as a player with bad value for today’s slate, suggesting that fantasy players might consider other options for a third baseman.

Analyzing Top Shortstops for Today’s DFS Slate

Bobby Witt Jr. ($6300), Royals – Projected 13.3 pts

Bobby Witt Jr. has been on a tear lately, averaging 12.8 DraftKings points over his last 10 games, a significant improvement from his previous 10-game average of 5.67 points. This sharp increase in performance, highlighted by a 125.7% increase in DraftKings points and a 130.8% increase in hits per game, positions Witt Jr. as a key player in today’s lineup. Despite Kansas City’s overall lower ranking in fantasy point generation, Witt Jr.’s recent surge and his matchup against a Boston team that allows a high number of hits make him a compelling pick. His DFS value score of 2.1 indicates he’s a solid core value for today’s games.

Francisco Lindor ($5500), Mets – Projected 12.9 pts

Francisco Lindor, while slightly dipping in performance with 10.4 DraftKings points per game over his last 10 compared to 11.33 in the previous set, still holds strong potential against Colorado. The Rockies’ pitching struggles, allowing 11.37 hits per game, could play to Lindor’s favor. Notably, Lindor has maintained a consistent power hitting with a 172.7% increase in home runs per game in his recent games. His ability to capitalize on walks, shown by a 354.5% increase, also boosts his on-base potential, crucial for DFS scoring. Lindor’s DFS value score of 2.3 makes him another solid core value option for today’s contests.

Top Catcher Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Mitch Garver ($4100), Mariners – Projected 11.7 pts

Mitch Garver, the Mariners’ catcher, has shown fluctuating performance in recent games, but his upcoming matchup against Tyler Anderson of the LAA, who has a high rate of hits allowed per game, positions him as a potentially lucrative pick. Over the last 10 games, Garver has averaged 5.3 DraftKings points, a drop from his previous 10-game average of 8.78 points. Despite this decline, his projected points stand at 11.7 for today’s game. With a DFS value score of 2.9, Garver represents a strong value pick at a DraftKings salary of $4100. His ability to capitalize on Anderson’s vulnerability could be key for DFS players looking for a solid catcher option.

Danny Jansen ($4000), Blue Jays – Projected 11.1 pts

Danny Jansen of the Blue Jays is another catcher to consider for today’s DFS lineup. Facing a pitcher from the ARI with a high rate of hits allowed per game, Jansen’s recent uptick in performance suggests potential value. He has improved significantly in his last 10 games, scoring an average of 4.4 DraftKings points compared to just 2.67 in the previous 10 games. His projected DFS points are 11.1, and with a DFS value score of 2.8, Jansen offers core value at a salary of $4000. His recent stats show a promising increase in hits and runs, making him a viable option for today’s games.

Top Outfielders to Watch in Today’s DFS Slate

Aaron Judge ($6600), Yankees – Projected 15.8 pts

Aaron Judge, the powerhouse outfielder for the Yankees, has shown fluctuating performance in his recent games. Over the last ten games, Judge has averaged 6.9 DraftKings points per game, a significant drop from his previous average of 13.56 points. Despite this decline, his matchup against the Orioles, who are notably generous in allowing hits, positions him for a potential rebound. With a DraftKings salary of $6600 and a projected point tally of 15.8, Judge earns a DFS value score of 2.4, categorizing him as a core value pick for today’s games. His ability to capitalize on the Orioles’ weaknesses could be key in seeing a resurgence in his fantasy output.

Juan Soto ($6200), Yankees – Projected 14.2 pts

Juan Soto, another talented outfielder for the Yankees, has been more consistent in his recent performances compared to Judge. Soto has managed to increase his average DraftKings points from 7.0 to 8.8 over the last ten games. This improvement is backed by a significant increase in total bases and hits per game, showcasing his ability to effectively get on base and score. Facing the same Orioles’ pitching staff as Judge, Soto has a chance to exploit their high hits allowed per game. With a DraftKings salary of $6200 and a projected points of 14.2, his DFS value score stands at 2.3, making him another core value player in today’s fantasy lineup.