Strategy and Stats for 09/09/24 Daily Fantasy MLB Slate

As the clock strikes 6:40 PM EST today, the MLB fantasy landscape ignites with a thrilling slate of 9 games, promising a spectacle of skill and strategy. Among these, the spotlight shines brightly on the iconic Fenway Park, where the Baltimore Orioles clash with the Boston Red Sox at 7:10 PM EST. With an Over/Under set at a lofty 9.5, this game is anticipated to be a treasure trove for hitters, making it a focal point for fantasy players aiming to maximize their points. As we delve deeper into today’s matchups, keep an eye on the top projected players at each position, whose recent performances and matchups suggest they are poised to dominate. This analysis will not only guide your fantasy picks but also enhance your understanding of the strategic nuances that could tilt the scales in today’s games.

Top 1B Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Freddie Freeman ($5300), Dodgers – Projected 14.2 pts

Freddie Freeman’s recent performance showcases a significant uptick in fantasy points, making him a compelling choice for today’s games. Over his last ten games, Freeman has averaged 9.9 points on DraftKings, a substantial increase from his previous set of ten games where he averaged 5.67 points. This improvement is particularly notable in his power hitting, with a jump in home runs per game from 0.0 to 0.4. Facing Kyle Hendricks, who ranks low in terms of hits allowed, Freeman’s potential for high fantasy output is further amplified. His DFS value score stands at 2.7, marking him as a strong value pick at a $5300 salary.

Josh Naylor ($4300), Indians – Projected 12.9 pts

Josh Naylor presents an intriguing option for DFS players today, especially considering his recent surge in performance. Naylor’s last ten games have seen him average 8.9 DraftKings points, nearly doubling his output from the previous ten-game stretch. His hits per game have skyrocketed by an impressive 490.9%, and his total bases per game have increased by 124.7%. These stats suggest a player who is finding his rhythm at the plate. With a matchup against a pitcher from the CWS who allows a high number of hits, Naylor’s prospects look promising. His DFS value score is 3.0, positioning him as an elite value at his current salary.

Top Second Basemen in Today’s DFS Slate

Gleyber Torres ($4200), Yankees – Projected 9.9 pts

Gleyber Torres has been a topic of discussion in recent DFS circles, especially considering his performance dip in the last ten games where he averaged 7.4 DraftKings points, a significant decrease from his previous 9.78. Despite this, Torres shows resilience in singles and doubles, with improvements of 28.2% and 81.8% respectively. Facing Brady Singer, who ranks #231 in hits allowed per game, Torres might find opportunities to exploit. His current DraftKings salary reflects a 2.4 DFS value score, positioning him as a core value play in today’s lineup.

Gavin Lux ($3800), Dodgers – Projected 9.6 pts

Gavin Lux’s recent performance might raise some eyebrows among fantasy players. With an average of 5.5 DraftKings points over his last ten games, down from 9.44, Lux seems to be struggling. However, his matchup against Kyle Hendricks, who allows a high number of hits per game, could be a turning point. Despite a decrease in most statistical categories, Lux’s ability to hit doubles has remained strong, matching an 81.8% increase just like Torres. At a DraftKings salary of $3800, Lux carries a 2.5 DFS value score, making him a strong value candidate for today’s games.

Top Third Basemen Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Jose Ramirez ($6200), Cleveland – Projected 14.1 pts

Jose Ramirez remains a pivotal figure at the hot corner for Cleveland, bringing a mix of consistency and potential explosive plays. Over his last ten games, Ramirez has posted an average of 6.9 DraftKings points per game, a slight dip from his previous ten-game average of 9.11 points. Despite this decrease, his ability to capitalize on matchups is evident, especially considering his upcoming game against the Chicago White Sox, a team that’s been generous in allowing hits. With a projected DFS value score of 2.3, Ramirez offers core value on today’s slate, particularly with his DraftKings salary set at $6200 and a favorable matchup on the horizon.

Max Muncy ($4800), Los Angeles Dodgers – Projected 12.3 pts

Max Muncy of the Dodgers presents an intriguing option at third base, especially given his lower DraftKings salary of $4800. Muncy’s recent performance shows a decline in productivity with an average of 5.5 DraftKings points over his last ten games, down from 8.44 in the previous set. However, facing Kyle Hendricks of the Cubs—who ranks #81 in hits allowed per game—could be the perfect scenario for Muncy to bounce back. His projected DFS value score of 2.6 categorizes him as a strong value pick for today’s games, making him a potentially savvy choice for DFS players looking to maximize returns against a pitcher prone to giving up hits.

Daily Fantasy Sports: Spotlight on Shortstops

Bobby Witt Jr. ($6600), Royals – Projected 14.4 pts

Bobby Witt Jr. has shown fluctuating performance in his recent outings, with a noticeable dip in his fantasy output. Over the last ten games, his DraftKings points per game dropped to 6.4 from 10.56, marking a -39.4% change. Similarly, his FanDuel points decreased by -38.9%. His hitting metrics also saw declines, particularly in doubles per game, which plummeted by -64.3%. Despite these setbacks, Witt Jr.’s projected DFS value score stands at 2.2, categorizing him as a core value pick for the upcoming slate. His resilience and potential for bounce-back performances make him a player to watch.

Gunnar Henderson ($6400), Orioles – Projected 14.2 pts

In contrast, Gunnar Henderson has been on an upward trajectory, significantly improving across various metrics. His DraftKings points surged by 81.7% to 11.3 points per game. FanDuel points also increased impressively by 76.0%. Notably, his hits per game nearly doubled, and his home runs per game saw a massive increase of 172.7%. These improvements, coupled with a consistent DFS value score of 2.2, position Henderson as a strong core value player in daily fantasy sports. Facing Brayan Bello, who ranks #185.0 in hits allowed per game, Henderson’s potential for high fantasy scoring makes him an attractive option for DFS enthusiasts.

Top Catchers for Today’s DFS Slate

David Fry ($3600), Indians – Projected 13.2 pts

David Fry, with a DraftKings salary of $3600, has shown a notable uptick in performance, making him a compelling pick for today’s games. Over his last ten games, Fry has averaged 4.7 points on DraftKings, a slight dip from his previous 6.22 points. However, his matchup against the CWS, who allow a high number of hits, positions him well for a rebound. His ability to increase walks by 81.8% and maintain a steady rate of singles and doubles suggests potential for high fantasy output. With a DFS value score of 3.7, Fry stands out as an elite value pick today.

Adley Rutschman ($5700), Orioles – Projected 11.7 pts

Adley Rutschman’s recent performance might not jump off the page with an average of 3.3 DraftKings points over his last ten games, a decrease from 4.0 points in the prior set of games. Despite this, Rutschman’s ability to draw walks, which has increased by a staggering 172.7%, indicates a keen eye at the plate that could translate into scoring opportunities, especially against Brayan Bello of the BOS who has been vulnerable this season. With a DFS value score of 2.1, Rutschman offers core value, making him a solid, if not spectacular, choice for today’s lineup.

Top Outfielders for Today’s DFS Slate

Mookie Betts ($6300), Dodgers – Projected 14.8 pts

Mookie Betts has been on a tear lately, averaging 13.3 DraftKings points over his last ten games, a significant improvement from his previous set of games where he averaged 7.67 points. This surge in performance is highlighted by a 203% increase in runs per game and a notable 172.7% increase in home runs per game. Facing Kyle Hendricks, who ranks 81st in hits allowed per game, Betts is poised to exploit this matchup. Despite his high salary, his consistent scoring boost gives him a 2.3 DFS value score, making him a core value pick for today’s games.

Jarren Duran ($6100), Red Sox – Projected 13.8 pts

Jarren Duran, in contrast, has seen a downturn in his recent performances, with his DraftKings points dropping from 14.78 to 6.6 over the last ten games. This decline is reflected across several metrics, including a -55.3% change in DraftKings points and a -82.1% decrease in both home runs and walks per game. Despite facing a favorable opponent in the Baltimore pitcher ranking 99th in hits allowed per game, Duran’s recent form casts doubt on his reliability. However, his projected points still place him at a 2.3 DFS value score, categorizing him as a core value player but with a cautious approach recommended.