Strategy and Stats for 09/29/24 Daily Fantasy MLB Slate

As the clock strikes 3:05 PM EST today, the MLB fantasy landscape is set to ignite with 15 thrilling games, promising a spectacle of skill and strategy. The centerpiece of today’s action is undeniably the Los Angeles Dodgers’ visit to the Colorado Rockies at Coors Field, with the first pitch at 3:10 PM EST. In a venue known for its high-scoring games, the Over/Under set at a whopping 10.5 hints at a potential offensive feast, making players from this matchup particularly enticing for fantasy lineups. From power hitters to crafty pitchers, today’s slate brims with top-tier talent across all positions, setting the stage for a deep dive into game-by-game fantasy breakdowns that could make or break your daily rosters.

Top 1B Picks for Today’s MLB Slate

Bryce Harper ($5600), Phillies – Projected 12.7 pts

Bryce Harper’s recent performance shows a dip in his usual stellar output, with a 2.3 DFS value score, placing him in the core value category. Over the last ten games, Harper’s production has decreased by 34.8% in DraftKings points per game compared to his previous ten games. His hits and home runs have notably declined, which might raise concerns. However, facing Mackenzie Gore, who ranks poorly in hits allowed per game, Harper could potentially exploit this matchup and offer a rebound performance. His current DraftKings salary reflects a moderate risk but a potentially rewarding play for today’s slate.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. ($5300), Blue Jays – Projected 12.0 pts

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has shown a promising uptick in his performance, making him a noteworthy pick with a 2.3 DFS value score. In his last ten games, Guerrero Jr. has improved across several metrics, including a significant 102.2% increase in hits per game. Despite a decrease in walks and runs, his total bases jumped by 134.2%, indicating his potential for high-scoring plays. Facing a pitcher from Miami with a high rank for hits allowed could further enhance Guerrero’s opportunity to capitalize and deliver strong fantasy points, making his current salary a potentially valuable investment.

Daily Fantasy Sports: Second Base Analysis

Ketel Marte ($5800), Arizona Diamondbacks – Projected 12.9 pts

Ketel Marte has been a beacon of consistency for the Diamondbacks, especially in his recent performances. Over the last ten games, Marte has averaged a robust 12.1 DraftKings points per game, a significant improvement from his previous ten-game stretch where he averaged 6.89 points. This 75.6% increase in fantasy output is mirrored across multiple categories, including a 203% increase in walks per game and over 100% in runs per game. His ability to consistently get on base and score makes him a valuable asset in DFS. Despite Arizona’s lower overall ranking in fantasy point generation, Marte’s individual performance and a 2.2 DFS value score make him a core value pick for the upcoming slate.

Marcus Semien ($5000), Texas Rangers – Projected 12.7 pts

Marcus Semien, on the other hand, presents a mixed bag in terms of recent performance. While his last ten games have seen a dip in DraftKings points per game to 8.3 from 11.33, his matchup against Griffin Canning of the LAA—who ranks #276 in hits allowed per game—could be seen as an opportunity for a rebound. Semien has shown potential with a 34.8% increase in hits per game and a staggering 354.5% increase in walks per game compared to his previous ten games. These stats suggest that Semien’s ability to reach base is improving, which could translate into higher fantasy points. With a 2.5 DFS value score, Semien is considered a strong value pick, especially given his lower DraftKings salary of $5000.

Top Third Basemen Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Max Muncy ($5700), Dodgers – Projected 12.7 pts

Max Muncy of the Dodgers has been showing a notable uptick in his performance, making him a key player to watch in today’s DFS contests. Over his last ten games, Muncy has averaged 10.0 DraftKings points, a significant improvement from his previous set of games where he averaged 7.22 points. This 38.5% increase is bolstered by his improved hitting, with a notable 104.5% increase in hits per game. Facing Antonio Senzatela, who ranks poorly in hits allowed, Muncy’s potential for high fantasy points is further amplified. His current DFS value score stands at 2.2, categorizing him as a core value pick with a solid chance to outperform his salary expectations.

Royce Lewis ($4600), Twins – Projected 12.1 pts

Royce Lewis of the Twins, despite a recent dip in his performance metrics, presents an intriguing option for DFS players. Over his latest stretch, Lewis has averaged 3.3 DraftKings points, a decrease from his previous average of 4.33 points. However, his projected points for today’s game stand at 12.1, suggesting potential undervalued upside. His hits and total bases have seen a downturn, but his ability to draw walks has improved by 81.8%. With a DFS value score of 2.6, Lewis is considered a strong value pick today, potentially offering substantial returns relative to his lower DraftKings salary.

Top Shortstop Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Trea Turner ($5800), Phillies – Projected 14.0 pts

Trea Turner has been on a notable upswing in his recent performances, making him a compelling pick for today’s games. Over the last ten games, Turner’s DraftKings points per game surged to 11.8 from 7.67, marking a 53.8% increase. His matchup against Mackenzie Gore, who ranks #263 in hits allowed per game, positions Turner favorably to exploit these weaknesses. Despite a slight decrease in singles and walks, his runs and total bases have seen significant improvements. With a DFS value score of 2.4, Turner stands out as a core value play in today’s DFS lineups.

Elly De La Cruz ($6100), Reds – Projected 13.8 pts

Elly De La Cruz presents an intriguing option at shortstop, especially considering his recent uptick in performance. In his last ten games, De La Cruz has averaged 7.6 DraftKings points, a 13.9% increase from his previous ten-game stretch. Facing Kyle Hendricks, who is notably generous in hits allowed, De La Cruz’s recent boost in hits per game by 96.4% could be pivotal. However, his walks have dramatically decreased, which might concern some. Nonetheless, with a DFS value score of 2.3, De La Cruz is positioned as a core value player who could potentially outperform his current metrics.

Analyzing Catcher Value in Today’s MLB DFS Slate

J.T. Realmuto ($4200), Phillies – Projected 11.0 pts

J.T. Realmuto, the stalwart catcher for the Phillies, presents a compelling case for inclusion in today’s DFS lineups. Despite Philadelphia’s modest rank of #163 in generating fantasy points, Realmuto has maintained a consistent performance. Over his last ten games, he’s averaged 6.6 DraftKings points, slightly down by 2.7% from his previous ten-game stretch. However, his matchup against Mackenzie Gore, who ranks #263 in hits allowed per game, positions Realmuto for potential success. Notably, his runs per game have increased by 51.5%, and his walk rate has seen a significant uptick of 36.4%. With a 2.6 DFS value score, Realmuto offers strong value at a DraftKings salary of $4200.

Willson Contreras ($4900), Cardinals – Projected 10.8 pts

Willson Contreras of the Cardinals, another top catcher choice, has shown a mix of ups and downs in his recent performances. Contreras has averaged 6.3 DraftKings points over his last ten games, a decrease of 23.4% from the prior set of games. Despite this dip, Contreras has improved his hitting, with a 12.4% increase in hits per game. Facing Tristan Beck of the Giants, who ranks #484 in hits allowed, could provide Contreras with opportunities to capitalize. However, his recent power metrics, including a 100% drop in home runs per game, might concern potential DFS investors. With a 2.2 DFS value score, Contreras is positioned as a core value pick at a $4900 DraftKings salary.

Top Outfielder Picks for Today’s DFS Slate

Mookie Betts ($6800), Dodgers – Projected 16.2 pts

Mookie Betts has been a consistent performer for the Dodgers, and his recent uptick in fantasy points is something to note. Over his last 10 games, Betts has averaged 9.1 DraftKings points, a significant improvement from his previous 10 games where he averaged 7.44 points. This 22.3% increase is largely due to his enhanced hitting, including a notable spike in home runs per game, jumping from 0.11 to 0.3. Facing Antonio Senzatela, who ranks poorly in hits allowed, Betts is poised for a strong performance. His DFS value score stands at 2.4, marking him as a core value pick for today’s slate.

Corbin Carroll ($5200), Diamondbacks – Projected 15.1 pts

Corbin Carroll, though experiencing a slight dip in his last 10 games with an average of 8.2 DraftKings points compared to 9.33 in the previous set, still holds considerable value. His ability to contribute across various categories, despite a 40.0% drop in hits per game, keeps him relevant in DFS circles. Carroll’s speed and potential for scoring runs and stealing bases add dimensions to his game that can’t be ignored. With a DFS value score of 2.9, Carroll stands out as a strong value pick, especially given his lower salary and the potential high return on investment.