Athletics

54-86

Seattle Mariners

66-74

9:40 PM ET T-Mobile Park NBCSCA Divisional

Seattle at -215 is steep given a league-worst offense, so the sharper play is UNDER 7.

Two strikeout-heavy lineups and Seattle's 30th-ranked scoring cap the run environment more than the total implies.

SidePASS, -215 is too expensive with no ATH price offered.

TotalBET UNDER 7 backed by Seattle's 30th-ranked offense and two high-strikeout lineups.

Lean6/10

Confidence

Seattle ranks 30/30 in runs at 3.96 per game.
Both offenses whiff often, 8.56 and 8.69 K/game.
Anderson has just 10.0 IP on record.

Best Bet UNDER 7 is the highest-conviction play against two of the game's weaker, whiff-prone offenses.

Total7.0

ATH Win—

SEA Win68%

Vegas / Market

Total

7.0

Run line

SEA 1.5

ATH ML

—

SEA ML

-215 68%

Seattle at -215 implies roughly a 68 percent win probability, a rich number for the league's worst scoring offense, and no ATH price is posted to shop the other side. That juice offers little value on the money line. The total at 7.0 is the cleaner market to attack given both lineups' contact issues.

Pitching Matchup

ATH

Jack Perkins

3-10 · 95.1 IP

ERA

6.42

WHIP

1.49

K/9

10.3

BB/9

4.0

SEA

Kade Anderson

0-0 · 10.0 IP

ERA

4.50

WHIP

1.30

K/9

7.2

BB/9

4.5

Perkins misses bats with a 10.32 K/9 but his 6.42 ERA and 1.49 WHIP scream hittable, with a 3.97 BB/9 compounding traffic. Anderson is a total unknown on 10.0 career innings, and his 4.50 BB/9 flags command questions against even a weak bat. Neither arm profiles as a stopper, so this comes down to which lineup does less.

Offense Comparison

ATHRank of 30SEA

4.4 #20 Runs / G 4.0 #30

0.247 #12 AVG 0.229 #29

1.19 #11 HR / G 1.16 #15

8.56 #10 K / G 8.69 #8

Seattle's lineup leans on Raleigh, Rodriguez, and Canzone for power upside and has the most reason to attack Perkins' walks and hittable stuff. The Athletics counter with a contact-first top of the order in Bolte and Butler, but both clubs strike out at elite rates, muting sustained rallies. Seattle carries the better stack appeal against the shakier opposing arm.

Weather & Park

At first pitch · 9:40 PM ET

3 mph in from LF · favors pitchers

Conditions

Overcast

Temp

63°

Rain

13%

Humidity

53%

moderate

Now: 57° · 2 mph out to RF · Overcast

T-Mobile Park has a retractable roof, so treat weather as a non-factor with no wind or temperature edge to bank on.

DFS Angles

Lean a mini Seattle stack of Raleigh, Rodriguez, and Canzone against Perkins' 1.49 WHIP and walk issues, since they hold the top projected bats at home.

Fade Perkins given the 6.42 ERA, and treat Anderson as a low-floor punt only if his 10.0 IP sample tempts a cheap dart.

ATH top bats

Lawrence Butler 9.7 proj · $3,700 · 2.6x
Henry Bolte 9.7 proj · $3,600 · 2.7x
Jonah Heim 9.1 proj · $3,500 · 2.6x
Max Muncy 8.2 proj · $2,700 · 3.0x
Zack Gelof 8.2 proj · $4,700 · 1.7x

SEA top bats

Cal Raleigh 12.6 proj · $4,500 · 2.8x
Randy Arozarena 11.1 proj · $5,100 · 2.2x
Josh Naylor 10.6 proj · $3,300 · 3.2x
Julio Rodriguez 10.4 proj · $4,300 · 2.4x
Dominic Canzone 10.4 proj · $3,800 · 2.7x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Cal Raleigh - HR lean - team-high 0.30 projected homers against a hittable Perkins.
Josh Naylor - hits over lean - 1.54 projected hits at strong 3.22x value.
Randy Arozarena - total bases lean - 1.27 hits and 0.25 HR projection atop the order.
Henry Bolte - hits lean - 1.35 projected hits leading off against Anderson's walks.

On watch