St. Louis Cardinals

70-70

Los Angeles Dodgers

82-57

10:10 PM ET Dodger Stadium Cardinals.TV Presented by bet365

Back Skubal and the Dodgers to control this one, with the under in play at 7.5.

A clear starting-pitcher gap points to Los Angeles carrying the run-scoring edge.

SideBET HOME RL -1.5 on the pitching mismatch, avoiding the pricey -300 ML.

TotalPASS, the total sits exactly at the 7.5 implied sum.

Lean6/10

Confidence

Skubal owns a 3.00 ERA and 1.03 WHIP versus Mathews' 5.03 and 1.58.
Dodgers rank 4th in runs per game at 4.92.
LAD implied at 4.4 runs, STL just 3.1.

Best Bet Dodgers run line -1.5, backed by the Skubal-over-Mathews edge.

Total7.5

STL Win29%

LAD Win75%

Implied STL3.1

Implied LAD4.4

Vegas / Market

Total

7.5

Run line

LAD 1.5

STL ML

+245 29%

LAD ML

-300 75%

STL3.1

LAD4.4

The de-vigged team totals of STL 3.1 and LAD 4.4 sum to exactly 7.5, showing an efficiently priced total with little edge either way. The LAD -300 moneyline is expensive and offers thin value at that juice. The run line is the cleaner way to express the Dodgers lean.

Pitching Matchup

STL

Quinn Mathews

1-2 · 19.2 IP

ERA

5.03

WHIP

1.58

K/9

9.4

BB/9

3.8

LAD

Tarik Skubal

1-2 · 30.0 IP

ERA

3.00

WHIP

1.03

K/9

11.1

BB/9

2.1

Skubal is the clear edge, pairing an 11.10 K/9 with sharp 2.10 BB/9 command that misses bats and limits free passes. Mathews shows swing-and-miss upside at 9.38 K/9 but leaks baserunners with a 3.75 BB/9 and 10.78 H/9. This is a decisive mismatch in favor of the home arm.

Offense Comparison

STLRank of 30LAD

4.5 #15 Runs / G 4.9 #4

0.241 #19 AVG 0.258 #2

1.07 #21 HR / G 1.23 #8

7.86 #26 K / G 7.88 #25

The Dodgers boast a deep, balanced lineup ranking 2nd in average and 8th in home runs, with Ohtani, Betts, and Freeman offering premium stack appeal against a hittable Mathews. St. Louis, ranked 21st in home runs and 26th in strikeouts per game, profiles as a contact-limited group that struggles to solve Skubal's whiff stuff. The lineup shapes tilt sharply toward Los Angeles.

Weather & Park

At first pitch · 10:10 PM ET

8 mph out to CF · favors hitters

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

73°

Rain

Humidity

59%

moderate

Now: 70° · 7 mph R to L cross · Smoky haze

Game-time conditions are sunny and 73F with an 8 mph wind blowing out to center, a positive nudge for run scoring in this outdoor park.

DFS Angles

Stack the Dodgers against Mathews, whose 1.58 WHIP and 10.78 H/9 invite the league's 2nd-best average lineup, with the wind out to center aiding power.

Target Skubal at DK $6500 as the premier arm on the slate; fade Mathews given his 5.03 ERA against an elite offense.

STL top bats