Back Taj Bradley and the Twins at home ML -104 as the day's cleanest pitching edge.
Bradley brings a 135.2-inning track record against a Braves starter with just 4.1 career innings logged.
- Bradley owns 3.98 ERA, 1.29 WHIP over 135.2 IP versus a 4.1-IP arm.
- Smith-Shawver's 4.39 BB/9 invites free baserunners against Minnesota's lineup.
- MIN priced at -104 despite the clear experience and command gap.
Vegas / Market
The de-vigged implied totals are dead even at 4.2 apiece with a pick-em ML at -104 both ways, so the market sees no separation. Given Bradley's substantial experience edge over an unproven opposing arm, the home price offers modest value. The total of 8.5 sits right on the combined 8.4 implied runs, leaving little edge either direction.
Pitching Matchup
Bradley is the trustworthy arm here with a 10.05 K/9 and 3.93 BB/9 across a full 135.2-inning body of work, giving him swing-and-miss upside and a proven floor. Smith-Shawver has thrown only 4.1 innings, and his 4.39 BB/9 against an 8.78 K/9 signals shaky command in a tiny sample. The edge is squarely on Bradley.
Offense Comparison
Atlanta carries the slightly deeper power profile, ranking 5th in HR/game at 1.33 with Olson, Acuna, and Albies capable of stacking against Bradley. Minnesota sits 15th in HR/game at 1.16 but can capitalize on Smith-Shawver's walks with contact bats like Buxton and Bell. Both lineups whiff plenty, ranking 23rd and 20th in strikeouts per game respectively.
Weather & Park
Game-time conditions are 80F and partly cloudy with a 4 mph R-to-L crosswind graded neutral, so the outdoor Target Field setting adds no clear boost or drag on scoring.
DFS Angles
Lean a Braves mini-stack of Olson, Acuna, and Baldwin against a walk-prone Smith-Shawver, while Buxton and Bell headline a Twins counter given Atlanta's shaky starter.
Target Taj Bradley as the DFS SP anchor given his 10.05 K/9 upside; fade Smith-Shawver, whose 4.39 BB/9 caps his ceiling.
- Matt Olson 13.0 proj · $5,500 · 2.4x
- Drake Baldwin 12.2 proj · $5,000 · 2.4x
- Ronald Acuna Jr. 12.1 proj · $6,000 · 2.0x
- Michael Harris II 10.7 proj · $4,500 · 2.4x
- Ozzie Albies 10.1 proj · $4,300 · 2.4x
- Byron Buxton 14.4 proj · $5,100 · 2.8x
- Royce Lewis 11.6 proj · $4,400 · 2.6x
- Josh Bell 10.6 proj · $3,500 · 3.0x
- Luke Keaschall 10.4 proj · $3,300 · 3.2x
- Kody Clemens 10.4 proj · $4,500 · 2.3x
Players to Watch
- Byron Buxton - over hits/total bases lean - top projection at 14.3 fpts with 0.45 HR.
- Josh Bell - over hits lean - salary-value monster at 3.02x with 1.35 projected H.
- Matt Olson - HR lean - team-best 0.44 projected homers and 1.33 HR/game offense.
- Drake Baldwin - over hits lean - projects 1.50 H batting leadoff.
- AJ Smith-Shawver - tiny 4.1-IP sample makes his command a live variable.
- Byron Buxton - highest projected fpts and power threat versus a walk-prone arm.
- Luke Keaschall - top value at 3.16x with 1.50 projected hits.
- Royce Lewis - 0.30 projected HR gives Twins secondary power source.
Form & Head-to-Head
Season series: ATL 0 – MIN 2
Minnesota leads the season series 2-0 over Atlanta.
Today's MLB Slate
DET @ PIT
SD @ NYM
ATL @ MIN
CWS @ CHC
ARI @ BOS
MIA @ PHI
NYY @ BAL
SF @ CLE
STL @ CIN
TOR @ TB
ATH @ KC
SEA @ MIL
WAS @ TEX
LAA @ HOU
LAD @ COL
