New York Yankees

70-55

Baltimore Orioles

61-64

6:35 PM ET Oriole Park at Camden Yards MASN Divisional

Back the Yankees on the road at -116 with the clear starting-pitcher edge in this divisional matchup.

Will Warren simply outclasses a Chris Bassitt who is getting hit hard, and New York owns the series.

SideBET AWAY ML at -116.

TotalPASS

Lean6/10

Confidence

Warren ERA 4.42 and WHIP 1.41 top Bassitt at 5.11 and 1.62.
Yankees rank 2/30 in HR/game at 1.38 versus a hittable arm.
NYY lead the season series 6-2 and imply 4.8 runs.

Best Bet Yankees moneyline at -116 backed by the starting-pitcher edge and a 6-2 series lead.

Total9.5

NYY Win54%

BAL Win48%

Implied NYY4.8

Implied BAL4.7

Vegas / Market

Total

9.5

Run line

BAL 1.5

NYY ML

-116 54%

BAL ML

+108 48%

NYY4.8

BAL4.7

The de-vigged team totals sit nearly even at NYY 4.8 and BAL 4.7, yet the market only asks -116 on the side with the superior arm. That is a fair price given the pitching mismatch, so the Yankees ML holds slight value. The total of 9.5 mirrors the implied totals exactly, offering no real edge.

Pitching Matchup

NYY

Will Warren

8-6 · 118.0 IP

ERA

4.42

WHIP

1.41

K/9

8.9

BB/9

3.1

BAL

Chris Bassitt

4-4 · 61.2 IP

ERA

5.11

WHIP

1.62

K/9

5.9

BB/9

3.7

Warren carries the stuff edge with a K/9 of 8.92, though a 3.13 BB/9 and 9.53 H/9 leave him hittable. Bassitt is the clear liability, missing few bats at 5.88 K/9 while surrendering an 11.03 H/9 and bloated 1.62 WHIP. The mound edge belongs to New York.

Offense Comparison

NYYRank of 30BAL

4.4 #17 Runs / G 4.5 #13

0.228 #29 AVG 0.237 #24

1.38 #2 HR / G 1.21 #10

9.19 #5 K / G 9.20 #4

The Yankees are power-forward, ranking 2/30 in home runs, a dangerous profile against Bassitt's contact-heavy, hit-prone approach and worth stacking. Baltimore counters with more balance but a low .237 team AVG, and both lineups whiff at elite rates, ranking 5th and 4th in strikeouts, capping upside against Warren's swing-and-miss.

Weather & Park

At first pitch · 6:35 PM ET

4 mph R to L cross · neutral

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

85°

Rain

Humidity

47%

moderate

Now: 74° · 5 mph L to R cross · Sunny

Sunny and 85F at first pitch with a neutral 4 mph cross wind at Camden Yards, so conditions neither suppress nor boost run scoring meaningfully.

DFS Angles

Stack the Yankees against Bassitt, whose 1.62 WHIP and 11.03 H/9 invite New York's league-2 power to do damage.

Target Will Warren as the stronger arm and cheaper pivot; fade Chris Bassitt given his 5.11 ERA and minimal strikeouts.

NYY top bats

Ben Rice 14.8 proj · $5,800 · 2.6x
Trent Grisham 13.4 proj · $4,300 · 3.1x
Luis Garcia Jr. 12.2 proj · $4,800 · 2.6x
Jazz Chisholm Jr. 11.9 proj · $4,500 · 2.6x
Spencer Jones 10.5 proj · $3,100 · 3.4x

BAL top bats

Pete Alonso 12.7 proj · $5,600 · 2.3x
Gunnar Henderson 12.0 proj · $5,100 · 2.4x
Tyler O'Neill 10.7 proj · $3,000 · 3.6x
Jackson Holliday 10.3 proj · $4,000 · 2.6x
Dylan Beavers 9.4 proj · $3,100 · 3.0x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Ben Rice - over hits/total bases - top projected Yankee at 14.8 fpts with 0.45 HR.
Trent Grisham - to record a hit - 1.35 projected hits leading off at 3.10x value.
Pete Alonso - over total bases - team-high 12.7 fpts with 0.42 projected HR.
Luis Garcia Jr. - RBI prop - 1.05 projected RBI hitting in the four hole.

On watch

Spencer Jones - 3.38x value at just $3100 makes him a cheap leverage bat.
Tyler O'Neill - 3.57x value at $3000 offers salary relief for Baltimore lineups.
Gunnar Henderson - 1.35 projected hits anchors the Orioles order.
Will Warren - his 3.13 BB/9 could shorten his outing and shift the game.

View all NYY & BAL props →