Back Cincinnati at home behind Chase Burns against a leaky Matthew Liberatore.
The pitching mismatch is stark and the market only asks -142 for the arm edge.
- Burns owns a 2.47 ERA and 1.09 WHIP versus Liberatore's 5.07.
- Burns strikes out 10.37 per nine against a 7.72 K/game STL lineup.
- CIN implied 4.5 runs off a 1.48-WHIP Liberatore start.
Vegas / Market
The de-vigged team totals sit at STL 4.0 and CIN 4.5, and the -142 home price reasonably reflects the pitching gap without overcharging. There is no glaring soft spot on the total at 8.5, which lines up cleanly with the 8.5 implied sum. The home side is the fair-value play rather than a market mistake.
Pitching Matchup
Burns is the clear edge, missing bats at a 10.37 K/9 clip with tidy control (3.16 BB/9) and elite ratios. Liberatore's 1.48 WHIP and 9.98 H/9 show he hands out baserunners in bunches, and his 3.33 BB/9 does not help. This is a decisive advantage for the home arm.
Offense Comparison
The Reds carry the league's lowest AVG at .226 (30/30) but real thump at 1.29 HR/game (7/30), a home-run profile that fits a hittable Liberatore. St. Louis is more contact-oriented and middling in power (1.03 HR/game, 22/30), a tough shape against Burns' swing-and-miss stuff. CIN offers the better stack appeal tonight given the arm they face.
Weather & Park
Great American Ball Park is outdoor with a 74F, overcast first pitch and a 5 mph wind out to center flagged as a positive run influence. Rain chance sits at just 18%, so expect a clean, slightly hitter-friendly night.
DFS Angles
Stack the Reds against Liberatore's 1.48 WHIP, leaning on the power bats with the wind out to center at GABP.
Target Chase Burns as a top-tier ace play given his 2.47 ERA and matchup; fade Liberatore entirely.
- Alec Burleson 11.8 proj · $4,900 · 2.4x
- JJ Wetherholt 10.7 proj · $4,400 · 2.4x
- Ivan Herrera 9.0 proj · $4,200 · 2.2x
- Jordan Walker 8.8 proj · $5,400 · 1.6x
- Nathan Church 7.8 proj · $3,200 · 2.4x
- Elly De La Cruz 13.8 proj · $6,000 · 2.3x
- Sal Stewart 13.0 proj · $5,100 · 2.6x
- Eugenio Suarez 12.0 proj · $3,500 · 3.4x
- Tyler Stephenson 11.6 proj · $3,300 · 3.5x
- JJ Bleday 11.6 proj · $4,000 · 2.9x
Players to Watch
- Eugenio Suarez - HR lean - 0.30 projected homers at a huge 3.42x value.
- Sal Stewart - hits and total bases lean - 1.50 projected hits, 2.55x.
- Tyler Stephenson - RBI lean - 0.75 projected RBI at 3.53x value.
- Elly De La Cruz - hits lean - team-best 13.8 projected fpts.
- Elly De La Cruz - top projected bat and lineup catalyst at 13.8 fpts.
- Eugenio Suarez - elite 3.42x value with 0.30 HR upside.
- Alec Burleson - STL's top projection at 11.8 fpts versus Burns.
- JJ Bleday - 0.30 projected HR fits the wind-out park.
Form & Head-to-Head
Season series: STL 7 – CIN 4
St. Louis leads the season series 7-4.
Today's MLB Slate
DET @ PIT
SD @ NYM
ATL @ MIN
CWS @ CHC
ARI @ BOS
MIA @ PHI
NYY @ BAL
SF @ CLE
STL @ CIN
TOR @ TB
ATH @ KC
SEA @ MIL
WAS @ TEX
LAA @ HOU
LAD @ COL
