Atlanta Braves

84-58

Philadelphia Phillies

80-62

1:10 PM ET Citizens Bank Park NBC/Peacock DivisionalDay GameWeekend

Back Atlanta at ATL -106 with the clear pitching edge and season-series dominance.

Grant Holmes brings the far steadier profile against a shaky Aaron Nola in a pick-em priced game.

SideBET AWAY ML at ATL -106

TotalBET UNDER 8.0 with wind blowing in from right

Lean6/10

Confidence

Holmes 3.62 ERA, 1.31 WHIP tops Nola 4.93, 1.40.
ATL offense ranks 9th at 4.65 runs/game vs PHI 14th.
Braves own the season series 6-2 already.

Best Bet Atlanta ML at -106 is the highest-conviction play given the pitching and series edges.

Total8.0

ATL Win51%

PHI Win52%

Implied ATL4.0

Implied PHI4.0

Vegas / Market

Total

8.0

Run line

PHI 1.5

ATL ML

-106 51%

PHI ML

-110 52%

ATL4.0

PHI4.0

The de-vigged implied totals sit even at 4.0 apiece, yet the ML is nearly pick-em at ATL -106 despite Atlanta holding the pitching and series edge, so there is small value on the Braves. The total of 8.0 lines up with two 4.0 team totals, leaving no real edge on the number itself before weather.

Pitching Matchup

ATL

Grant Holmes

9-5 · 131.2 IP

ERA

3.62

WHIP

1.31

K/9

7.1

BB/9

3.8

PHI

Aaron Nola

6-10 · 148.0 IP

ERA

4.93

WHIP

1.40

K/9

9.6

BB/9

3.1

Holmes carries the cleaner run prevention with a modest 7.13 K/9 but manageable command, while Nola misses more bats at 9.55 K/9 yet has been hit hard with a 9.49 H/9. The stuff edge on strikeouts belongs to Nola, but the results and reliability clearly favor Holmes today.

Offense Comparison

ATLRank of 30PHI

4.7 #9 Runs / G 4.5 #14

0.248 #10 AVG 0.243 #16

1.27 #7 HR / G 1.18 #13

8.15 #19 K / G 8.29 #16

Atlanta's lineup fronts Baldwin, Acuna, and Olson with real thump against Nola's contact-prone form, giving the Braves the stronger stack appeal. Philadelphia counters with a lefty-heavy top of Schwarber and Harper who can punish mistakes, but Holmes has been stingier at limiting hard contact all season.

Weather & Park

At first pitch · 1:10 PM ET

5 mph in from RF · favors pitchers

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

77°

Rain

Humidity

63%

moderate

Now: 70° · 7 mph in from RF · Sunny

Sunny and 76F at first pitch with a 5 mph wind blowing in from right field, a flagged negative for run scoring that should knock down fly balls at Citizens Bank Park.

DFS Angles

Lean a compact Braves stack around Baldwin, Acuna, and Olson against Nola's 4.93 ERA, though the in-blowing wind caps upside for both lineups. If pivoting, Harper and Schwarber offer lefty pop but face the tougher arm.

Target Holmes as the safer arm today given his 3.62 ERA and 1.31 WHIP, and fade Nola despite the strikeout ceiling. Bohm at $3300 (2.91x) is the top value bat if building around the home side.

ATL top bats