Archived pregame breakdown. This is how the matchup looked before first pitch on August 11, 2026: the odds, projected lineups and picks shown were pregame numbers and are not live. See today's games

Milwaukee Brewers

73-45

San Diego Padres

62-57

9:40 PM ET Petco Park Padres.TV Presented by UC San Diego Health

Back Milwaukee at -142 with elite Logan Henderson opposing a scuffling Casey Mize.

The starting pitching gap is the widest edge on the board tonight.

SideBET AWAY ML, Milwaukee -142.

TotalPASS 7.5, conflicting Mize risk versus Henderson suppression.

Strong7/10

Confidence

Henderson owns a 2.88 ERA and 0.91 WHIP over 56.1 innings.
Mize sits at a 9.64 ERA, 2.04 WHIP in 9.1 innings.
MIL scores 4.93 runs/game (5th) versus SD at 4.22 (22nd).

Best Bet Milwaukee moneyline at -142 behind the Henderson-over-Mize edge is the play.

Total7.5

MIL Win59%

SD Win45%

Implied MIL3.9

Implied SD3.6

Vegas / Market

Total

7.5

Run line

SD 1.5

MIL ML

-142 59%

SD ML

+120 45%

MIL3.9

SD3.6

De-vigged implied totals sit at MIL 3.9 and SD 3.6, and the -142 price feels fair given the starter mismatch. The total of 7.5 is caught between Mize's blowup risk and Henderson's suppression, so there is no clean edge either way. The side, not the number, is where value lives.

Pitching Matchup

MIL

Logan Henderson

6-2 · 56.1 IP

ERA

2.88

WHIP

0.91

K/9

11.1

BB/9

1.8

Casey Mize

0-1 · 9.1 IP

ERA

9.64

WHIP

2.04

K/9

6.9

BB/9

5.0

Henderson pairs a strong 11.07 K/9 with elite 1.76 BB/9 command, giving him a clear edge in stuff and control. Mize has walked 4.95 per nine and allowed 13.85 hits per nine across a tiny two-start sample, so trust is thin. The arm advantage decisively favors Milwaukee.

Offense Comparison

MILRank of 30SD

4.9 #5 Runs / G 4.2 #22

0.252 #5 AVG 0.236 #24

0.92 #30 HR / G 1.08 #20

8.29 #17 K / G 8.12 #21

Milwaukee is a contact-heavy attack that ranks 5th in average but dead last (30th) in homers, so expect line drives and traffic rather than slug against a wild Mize. San Diego's lineup, fronted by Tatis and Machado, ranks 24th in average and faces a strikeout arm that limits hard contact, dulling stack appeal. The Brewers profile as the better matchup to bat around.

Weather & Park

Current conditions

2 mph R to L cross · neutral

Conditions

Clear

Temp

66°

Humidity

91%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

Clear and 66F with a neutral 2 mph cross breeze at outdoor Petco offers no meaningful boost or drag on run scoring.

DFS Angles

Stack Milwaukee against Mize's 2.04 WHIP; contact bats like Contreras and Turang should generate traffic even without park-driven power.

Target Henderson as a premium arm given his 11.07 K/9 and 0.91 WHIP; fade Mize entirely at any salary.

MIL top bats

Jackson Chourio 11.7 proj · $5,600 · 2.1x
Brice Turang 11.0 proj · $5,300 · 2.1x
Jake Bauers 10.3 proj · $4,800 · 2.2x
William Contreras 10.3 proj · $4,300 · 2.4x
Garrett Mitchell 9.8 proj · $4,100 · 2.4x

SD top bats

Fernando Tatis Jr. 10.4 proj · $6,000 · 1.7x
Jackson Merrill 9.6 proj · $4,500 · 2.1x
Manny Machado 9.5 proj · $5,000 · 1.9x
Ty France 8.4 proj · $4,200 · 2.0x
Jake Cronenworth 8.4 proj · $3,100 · 2.7x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Logan Henderson - over strikeouts lean - 11.07 K/9 versus a 21st-ranked whiffing SD lineup.
William Contreras - hits lean - projects 1.36 H at a strong 2.40x value.
Jake Cronenworth - hits lean - projects 1.39 H at bargain 2.70x value.
Fernando Tatis Jr. - modest expectation - faces Henderson's command at pricey $6000, 1.72x.

On watch