Archived pregame breakdown. This is how the matchup looked before first pitch on August 11, 2026: the odds, projected lineups and picks shown were pregame numbers and are not live. See today's games

Philadelphia Phillies

64-56

St. Louis Cardinals

59-60

7:45 PM ET Busch Stadium NBCSP

Back the Over 8.5 with Andrew Painter and his 6.27 ERA on the hill and wind blowing out.

Painter's 1.52 WHIP against a contact-heavy Cardinals lineup, plus a positive wind out to center, favors run scoring.

SidePASS, PHI -166 overprices the weaker starter.

TotalBET OVER 8.5, Painter's 6.27 ERA plus wind out to CF.

Lean6/10

Confidence

Painter carries a 6.27 ERA, 1.52 WHIP over 80.1 IP.
Wind 9 mph out to CF flags positive run impact.
STL fans least, K/game 7.69 ranks 27/30.

Best Bet Over 8.5 is the play, leaning on Painter's 1.52 WHIP and a positive wind profile.

Total8.5

PHI Win62%

STL Win40%

Implied PHI4.6

Implied STL3.9

Vegas / Market

Total

8.5

Run line

STL 1.5

PHI ML

-166 62%

STL ML

+152 40%

PHI4.6

STL3.9

The de-vigged implied totals sit at PHI 4.6 and STL 3.9 for a combined 8.5, and Painter's profile suggests the Cardinals can beat their 3.9 share. PHI at -166 prices Philadelphia as a clear favorite despite the weaker arm, which makes the side less appealing than the total. The number aligns with my read to attack the Over.

Pitching Matchup

PHI

Andrew Painter

2-8 · 80.1 IP

ERA

6.27

WHIP

1.52

K/9

7.8

BB/9

3.5

STL

Hunter Dobbins

2-3 · 45.0 IP

ERA

3.40

WHIP

1.31

K/9

8.4

BB/9

3.4

Dobbins clearly owns the edge with a 3.40 ERA, 1.31 WHIP and an 8.40 K/9 across 45.0 innings, showing swing-and-miss with manageable control at 3.40 BB/9. Painter, by contrast, has been hittable at a 10.22 H/9 and shaky at 3.48 BB/9, and his 6.27 ERA points to consistent traffic. The stuff-versus-results gap is wide in the Cardinals starter's favor.

Offense Comparison

PHIRank of 30STL

4.5 #16 Runs / G 4.4 #19

0.238 #21 AVG 0.240 #20

1.24 #9 HR / G 1.02 #24

8.62 #9 K / G 7.69 #27

Philadelphia brings more thump, sitting 9/30 in HR/game at 1.24, so Schwarber and Harper give this lineup real stack appeal against Dobbins. St. Louis is a contact club, ranking 27/30 in strikeouts and 24/30 in power, so they profile to put balls in play and pepper hits off a hittable Painter rather than launch. Both offenses grade middling in average around .238 to .240.

Weather & Park

Current conditions

9 mph out to CF · favors hitters

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

77°

Humidity

80%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

Busch is outdoor with sunny skies, 77F feeling 80F, and a 9 mph wind out to center flagged as a positive run impact, nudging the environment toward scoring.

DFS Angles

Stack Philadelphia bats for power upside against Dobbins, with Schwarber and Harper anchoring a lineup ranked 9/30 in HR/game and wind aiding carry. A secondary St. Louis contact stack fits well versus Painter's 10.22 H/9.

Target Dobbins as the superior arm at a reasonable price given his 3.40 ERA. Fade Painter given the 6.27 ERA and favorable hitting conditions.

PHI top bats

Kyle Schwarber 14.6 proj · $6,200 · 2.4x
Bryce Harper 14.2 proj · $5,700 · 2.5x
Bryson Stott 12.7 proj · $3,800 · 3.3x
Brandon Marsh 11.0 proj · $4,200 · 2.6x
Luis Arraez 10.9 proj · $4,500 · 2.4x

STL top bats

Alec Burleson 13.1 proj · $4,900 · 2.7x
Ivan Herrera 12.5 proj · $4,100 · 3.0x
Jordan Walker 12.2 proj · $5,200 · 2.3x
JJ Wetherholt 11.9 proj · $4,800 · 2.5x
Masyn Winn 10.0 proj · $3,500 · 2.9x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Kyle Schwarber - HR/total bases lean - 0.47 projected HR tops the slate with wind out.
Bryce Harper - hits lean - 1.46 projected hits against a struggling Painter.
Alec Burleson - hits lean - 1.67 projected hits versus a hittable arm.
Bryson Stott - hits lean - 1.60 projected hits at value $3800.

On watch