Back the Braves bats and wind-aided power at Truist Park against a walk-prone Christian Scott.
Atlanta's top-6 offense meets 5 mph wind blowing out to left with a positive HR impact.
- Atlanta ranks 6th in runs at 4.88 per game.
- Braves sit 4th in HR at 1.34 per game.
- Scott's 3.80 BB/9 hands free baserunners to a power lineup.
Vegas / Market
The de-vigged implied totals sit NYM 4.1 and ATL 4.4, a slim edge that matches Atlanta being a modest home favorite at -122. That is an efficient price, not a soft one, so there is no fat value on the Braves side. The total at 8.5 lines up close to the combined implied 8.5, giving little room to hammer either way.
Pitching Matchup
Scott brings the louder stuff with an 11.29 K/9 but pairs it with shaky 3.80 BB/9 command. Elder is a pitch-to-contact arm at 7.41 K/9 with tidier 3.09 BB/9 and a slightly better 1.25 WHIP. Neither is a clear ace, but Elder's control edge fits the spot while Scott's walks are the swing factor.
Offense Comparison
Atlanta's lineup, fronted by Acuna, Olson, and Harris II, has real thump and profiles as the better stack against a walk-prone starter. New York's offense is thinner, ranking 23rd in average, and leans on Lindor and Bichette to set the table rather than slug. The Braves are the more dangerous side of the plate tonight.
Weather & Park
Sunny 78 degrees with 5 mph wind blowing out to left field carries a positive impact on run scoring at outdoor Truist Park. That breeze nudges fly balls toward the seats and supports the power play.
DFS Angles
Stack the Braves; a top-6 run offense and 4th-ranked power group faces a walk-prone Scott with wind blowing out to left.
Elder is a fine cash-game value against a 21st-ranked offense; treat Scott as a tournament-only strikeout dart given his 11.29 K/9 but risky walks.
- Francisco Lindor 12.6 proj · $4,500 · 2.8x
- Bo Bichette 11.2 proj · $4,400 · 2.6x
- A.J. Ewing 10.7 proj · $4,200 · 2.6x
- Carson Benge 10.4 proj · $4,000 · 2.6x
- Marcus Semien 9.8 proj · $3,500 · 2.8x
- Ronald Acuna Jr. 12.5 proj · $5,500 · 2.3x
- Matt Olson 12.1 proj · $5,000 · 2.4x
- Drake Baldwin 11.4 proj · $4,700 · 2.4x
- Michael Harris II 10.8 proj · $4,200 · 2.6x
- Ozzie Albies 9.5 proj · $4,100 · 2.3x
Players to Watch
- Matt Olson - HR lean - highest projected HR at 0.37 with wind out to left.
- Ronald Acuna Jr. - hits lean - 1.35 projected hits atop a strong lineup.
- Christian Scott - strikeout over lean - 11.29 K/9 gives upside despite the tough matchup.
- Francisco Lindor - table-setter and top NYM projection at 12.6 fpts.
- Michael Harris II - team-high 0.90 projected RBI in the Atlanta stack.
- Drake Baldwin - leadoff bat with 0.31 projected HR and value at $4700.
- Bryce Elder - contact profile means defense and the wind decide his line.
Form & Head-to-Head
Season series: NYM 7 – ATL 4
New York leads the season series 7-4.
Today's MLB Slate
CLE @ DET
PIT @ MIA
CHC @ WAS
SEA @ NYY
BOS @ TOR
NYM @ ATL
BAL @ MIN
CIN @ CWS
PHI @ STL
TEX @ LAA
COL @ ARI
TB @ ATH
MIL @ SD
HOU @ SF
KC @ LAD
