Max Fried's clear arm edge makes the Yankees at -122 the actionable side tonight.
Fried's elite run prevention badly outclasses Buehler while Petco stays neutral for scoring.
- Fried owns a 2.80 ERA and 1.00 WHIP over 90 innings.
- Buehler carries a 4.66 ERA, 1.36 WHIP, 8.86 H/9.
- Yankees rank 2nd in HR/game at 1.37.
Vegas / Market
The de-vigged implied totals sit nearly even at NYY 3.8 and SD 3.7, yet the Yankees hold the superior starter, suggesting the -122 price is fair to slightly soft. The 7.5 total lines up close to the combined implied 7.5, offering little edge. I would rather buy the better arm on the moneyline than chase the number.
Pitching Matchup
Fried is the decisive edge here, pairing sharp command with an 8.30 K/9 against just 2.80 BB/9 and a stingy 6.20 H/9. Buehler misses fewer bats at 7.62 K/9 and gets hit harder, with an 8.86 H/9 and shakier 3.36 BB/9 control. The gap in stuff and command clearly favors the visiting arm.
Offense Comparison
The Yankees are a power-first lineup, ranking 2nd in home runs but a low 28th in average and 5th in strikeouts, making them boom-or-bust against Buehler's contact profile. San Diego offers less thump, sitting 20th in HR/game and 22nd in runs, a tough draw against Fried's hit suppression. Tatis atop the order is the one Padre bat with real stack appeal.
Weather & Park
First pitch is sunny and 72F with a 9 mph right-to-left crosswind graded neutral, so the outdoor Petco setting should not meaningfully push run scoring either way.
DFS Angles
Lean a Yankees power stack given their 2nd-ranked HR rate against Buehler's hittable 8.86 H/9; Tatis is the lone Padre worth isolating.
Target Fried as a strong DFS anchor given his 2.80 ERA and matchup edge; fade Buehler against a top HR offense despite his home price.
- Cody Bellinger 12.2 proj · $4,600 · 2.7x
- Ben Rice 12.1 proj · $5,700 · 2.1x
- Paul Goldschmidt 10.6 proj · $3,400 · 3.1x
- Jazz Chisholm Jr. 10.5 proj · $4,600 · 2.3x
- Spencer Jones 10.0 proj · $3,200 · 3.1x
- Fernando Tatis Jr. 11.2 proj · $6,100 · 1.8x
- Luis Campusano 10.2 proj · $3,600 · 2.8x
- Ethan Salas 10.1 proj · $3,000 · 3.4x
- Jackson Merrill 9.5 proj · $4,800 · 2.0x
- Ty France 9.4 proj · $4,700 · 2.0x
Players to Watch
- Paul Goldschmidt - hits over lean - projects 1.35 H at strong 3.12x value.
- Ben Rice - HR interest - team-high 0.29 projected homers versus a hittable arm.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. - hits over lean - projects 1.44 H atop the Padres order.
- Spencer Jones - upside dart - 3.13x value at just $3200.
- Cody Bellinger - team-best 12.2 projected fpts in the two-hole.
- Paul Goldschmidt - top value bat at 3.12x for $3400.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. - the Padres' primary source of offense.
- Ethan Salas - projections listed N/A, so confirm the lineup status.
Form & Head-to-Head
No completed meetings between these teams yet this season.
No completed meetings between these teams yet this season.
Today's MLB Slate
DET @ CLE
MIL @ CIN
ATL @ PHI
LAA @ PIT
BOS @ BAL
SF @ NYM
CHC @ MIA
DET @ CLE
MIN @ CWS
TB @ TEX
ARI @ HOU
TOR @ KC
STL @ COL
NYY @ SD
WAS @ LAD
ATH @ SEA
