Back the over at Coors Field with two shaky arms and wind blowing out to right.
Both starters carry ERAs near or above 4.38 with high walk rates in a hitter's park.
- Total sits at 11.5 with combined implied 11.5 runs.
- Feltner owns a 5.84 ERA and 4.00 BB/9.
- Mathews carries a 1.58 WHIP and 4.46 BB/9.
Vegas / Market
The de-vigged implied totals of STL 5.9 and COL 5.6 sum right to the posted 11.5, so the number is efficiently priced. St. Louis is a modest ML favorite at -130 despite being the road side. The total, not the side, is where the read points given the environment.
Pitching Matchup
Neither arm inspires confidence here, as Mathews walks 4.46 per nine over just 24.2 innings and Feltner sports a 5.84 ERA across 101.2 frames. Mathews misses more bats at 8.93 K/9 versus Feltner's 6.76, but both hand out free passes at similar clips. Slight strikeout edge to Mathews, though command is a wash and both are exposed in this setting.
Offense Comparison
Colorado's contact-oriented bats rank 4th in AVG and 8th in runs, a tough draw for a wild Mathews. St. Louis strikes out heavily at 26th in K/game, which plays into Feltner missing bats, but their lineup led by Burleson and Walker can do damage. Both offenses carry real stack appeal against opposing command issues.
Weather & Park
Coors Field is outdoors with 9 mph wind blowing out to right at first pitch, a positive-impact factor for run scoring, with just an 11% rain chance and warm 78F air.
DFS Angles
Stack both sides here, favoring St. Louis bats like Burleson and Walker against Feltner's 5.84 ERA, with Colorado's contact lineup a strong secondary stack in the friendly park.
Fade both starters given the Coors environment, but if forced, Mathews at least offers the higher strikeout upside; Feltner is purely a value-punt gamble.
- Alec Burleson 16.8 proj · $5,500 · 3.1x
- Jordan Walker 16.5 proj · $6,200 · 2.7x
- Ivan Herrera 14.7 proj · $5,200 · 2.8x
- Bryan Torres 13.0 proj · $3,600 · 3.6x
- Leo Bernal 12.4 proj · $3,500 · 3.6x
- Hunter Goodman 13.6 proj · $5,600 · 2.4x
- Jake McCarthy 12.8 proj · $5,500 · 2.3x
- Mickey Moniak 12.8 proj · $5,100 · 2.5x
- Cole Carrigg 12.2 proj · $5,400 · 2.3x
- TJ Rumfield 11.8 proj · $4,600 · 2.6x
Players to Watch
- Alec Burleson - over on hits/total bases - projected 1.65 H against a homer-prone Feltner.
- Jordan Walker - HR lean - 0.30 projected HR at Coors with wind out.
- Hunter Goodman - over on total bases - 0.45 projected HR versus a wild Mathews.
- Mickey Moniak - hits lean - 1.35 projected H atop the contact-heavy order.
- Bryan Torres - table-setting leadoff bat at a cheap $3600, 3.62x value.
- Leo Bernal - outsized 0.50 HR and 1.99 RBI projection at $3500.
- TJ Rumfield - 1.65 projected hits at a modest $4600 salary.
- Jake McCarthy - leadoff bat with 1.69 projected hits for Colorado.
Form & Head-to-Head
Season series: STL 2 – COL 1
St. Louis leads the season series 2-1.
Today's MLB Slate
DET @ CLE
MIL @ CIN
ATL @ PHI
LAA @ PIT
BOS @ BAL
SF @ NYM
CHC @ MIA
DET @ CLE
MIN @ CWS
TB @ TEX
ARI @ HOU
TOR @ KC
STL @ COL
NYY @ SD
WAS @ LAD
ATH @ SEA
