Take Pittsburgh's Braxton Ashcraft as a live underdog at +124 against a strikeout-prone White Sox lineup.
Ashcraft's elite command and the Pirates' top-5 offense make the CWS -146 price too rich.
- Ashcraft walks just 1.91 per nine, far cleaner than Burke's 3.15.
- Pirates rank 5th in runs at 4.82 per game.
- White Sox hit only .237, 22nd in the league.
Vegas / Market
The de-vigged team totals sit at CWS 4.5 and PIT 4.0, pricing Chicago as the clear favorite at -146. Given Ashcraft's command edge and Pittsburgh's superior offense rank, the dog price of +124 looks like the value side. The 8.5 total is roughly fair with two quality arms, so no strong number to attack there.
Pitching Matchup
Both arms miss bats at similar clips, with Ashcraft at 9.43 K/9 and Burke at 9.75, but the command gap is the story. Ashcraft's 1.91 BB/9 and 1.09 WHIP give him the cleaner profile, while Burke's 3.15 BB/9 leaves more traffic despite a shinier 3.20 ERA. Edge to the Pittsburgh right-hander on control.
Offense Comparison
Pittsburgh brings a balanced, high-contact top of the order in Reynolds, Lowe, and Cruz that projects to grind at-bats against a wilder Burke. Chicago is the more boom-or-bust group, leaning on power (5th in HR/game) from Murakami, Vargas, and the Montgomerys but hampered by a poor team average, making them a swing-and-miss stack against Ashcraft's control. Both lineups strike out a lot, so damage may come in bunches.
Weather & Park
Rate Field is outdoor with 80F, 49% humidity, and a 7 mph right-to-left crosswind graded as neutral, so no meaningful boost or suppression to scoring. Rain chance is a low 11%.
DFS Angles
Lean a modest Pittsburgh stack against Burke's walk rate, with Reynolds, Lowe, and Cruz as the core; the neutral wind keeps this a matchup play rather than a park play.
Ashcraft is the preferred SP target given his 1.09 WHIP and matchup versus a .237 lineup; Burke is more of a tournament-only arm due to the higher walk rate.
- Oneil Cruz 9.8 proj · $6,600 · 1.5x
- Bryan Reynolds 9.7 proj · $5,100 · 1.9x
- Brandon Lowe 9.6 proj · $5,600 · 1.7x
- Rafael Flores Jr. 9.4 proj · $3,900 · 2.4x
- Spencer Horwitz 8.7 proj · $4,100 · 2.1x
- Munetaka Murakami 10.8 proj · $5,100 · 2.1x
- Miguel Vargas 10.8 proj · $5,400 · 2.0x
- Sam Antonacci 10.1 proj · $4,300 · 2.3x
- Colson Montgomery 9.1 proj · $4,100 · 2.2x
- Braden Montgomery 9.0 proj · $3,300 · 2.7x
Players to Watch
- Bryan Reynolds - over hits lean - projects 1.23 H against a control-shaky Burke.
- Miguel Vargas - HR/total bases lean - projects 1.20 H with 0.24 HR in a power spot.
- Rafael Flores Jr. - RBI lean - projects 0.75 RBI at bat 9 value.
- Munetaka Murakami - top CWS projection at 10.8 fpts with 0.27 HR upside.
- Oneil Cruz - highest Pirates salary at $6600, boom-or-bust power bat.
- Braden Montgomery - cheapest value at $3300 (2.72x) in the CWS lineup.
- Colson Montgomery - 0.26 projected HR at just $4100.
Form & Head-to-Head
No completed meetings between these teams yet this season.
No completed meetings between these teams yet this season.
Today's MLB Slate
CLE @ BAL
MIN @ DET
HOU @ PHI
NYM @ MIA
LAA @ BOS
COL @ NYY
TB @ ATL
ARI @ KC
PIT @ CWS
CHC @ MIL
WAS @ SD
TEX @ SEA
TOR @ ATH
STL @ SF
CIN @ LAD
