St. Louis Cardinals

72-73

San Francisco Giants

60-84

9:45 PM ET Oracle Park NBCS BA

Lean UNDER 7.5 with two strong arms working in a run-suppressing Oracle Park wind.

A 9 mph breeze in from center plus a pick-em market points to a low-scoring night.

SidePASS

TotalBET UNDER 7.5

Lean6/10

Confidence

Wind 9 mph in from CF flags negative run impact.
De-vigged team totals just 3.7 STL, 3.8 SF.
Molina owns 1.88 ERA, 0.70 WHIP over 14.1 IP.

Best Bet UNDER 7.5, backed by the CF wind and two quality (if small-sample) starters.

Total7.5

STL Win51%

SF Win53%

Implied STL3.7

Implied SF3.8

Vegas / Market

Total

7.5

Run line

SF 1.5

STL ML

-104 51%

SF ML

-112 53%

STL3.7

SF3.8

The de-vigged team totals of 3.7 and 3.8 sum right at the 7.5 posted number, so there is no obvious side edge on the total itself. The moneyline is essentially a coin flip at STL -104 and SF -112, meaning the market sees no meaningful favorite. Any edge here comes from the environment nudging beneath the number rather than the price.

Pitching Matchup

STL

Cooper Hjerpe

1-0 · 4.0 IP

ERA

0.00

WHIP

0.00

K/9

13.5

BB/9

0.0

Anthony Molina

3-0 · 14.1 IP

ERA

1.88

WHIP

0.70

K/9

8.3

BB/9

1.3

Molina has the larger, more reliable body of work with sharp command, sitting 1.28 BB/9 and inducing weak contact at 5.11 H/9. Hjerpe flashes swing-and-miss at 13.50 K/9 but has thrown just 4.0 innings, so treat that spotless line as an extremely small sample. Edge to Molina on trust, though both arms have live stuff tonight.

Offense Comparison

STLRank of 30SF

4.6 #10 Runs / G 4.2 #25

0.243 #16 AVG 0.248 #8

1.07 #21 HR / G 1.13 #16

7.92 #25 K / G 8.01 #23

St. Louis brings the better attack by rank, 10th in runs versus San Francisco's 25th, with Burleson and Walker anchoring a lineup that makes decent contact. The Giants counter with a top-10 team average but modest thump, leaning on Devers for the lone real power threat. Neither club profiles as a premium stack against these arms.

Weather & Park

At first pitch · 9:45 PM ET

9 mph in from CF · favors pitchers

Conditions

Overcast

Temp

68°

Rain

16%

Humidity

66%

humid, lighter air, slight carry

Now: 59° · 3 mph in from RF · Clear

Oracle Park is outdoor at 68F with a 9 mph wind blowing in from center, a combination flagged as negative for scoring and knocking down fly balls.

DFS Angles

If forced to stack, lean lightly to St. Louis given their 10th-ranked offense, but the wind and pitching matchups make full stacks risky tonight. Prefer scattered value bats over committing to either lineup.

Molina is the safer DFS arm on his 14.1 IP of 1.88 ERA work in a suppressed park. Hjerpe is a boom-or-bust punt given only 4.0 career innings of data.

STL top bats