St. Louis Cardinals

69-70

Los Angeles Dodgers

82-56

10:10 PM ET Dodger Stadium SportsNet LA

Back the Dodgers to control this one behind Yamamoto against an unproven Cardinals arm.

Yamamoto's elite command outclasses a debut-level starter walking six per nine.

SideBET HOME RL -1.5 for a better price than -250.

TotalPASS at 7.5 given the split of arms and offenses.

Strong7/10

Confidence

Yamamoto owns a 2.56 ERA and 0.89 WHIP over 158 innings.
Winquest carries a 6.00 BB/9 across just 3.0 total innings.
LAD offense ranks 2nd in AVG at .258, implied 4.3.

Best Bet Dodgers run line -1.5 backed by Yamamoto's command against a wild, small-sample starter.

Total7.5

STL Win33%

LAD Win71%

Implied STL3.2

Implied LAD4.3

Vegas / Market

Total

7.5

Run line

LAD 1.5

STL ML

+205 33%

LAD ML

-250 71%

STL3.2

LAD4.3

The de-vigged implied totals sit at STL 3.2 and LAD 4.3, and LAD at -250 aligns with the pitching gap. The number feels fair rather than soft, so there is no clear overlay on the moneyline side. The run line at 1.5 is where value may live if you want a better price on the favorite.

Pitching Matchup

STL

Cade Winquest

0-0 · 3.0 IP

ERA

3.00

WHIP

1.33

K/9

9.0

BB/9

6.0

LAD

Yoshinobu Yamamoto

12-8 · 158.0 IP

ERA

2.56

WHIP

0.89

K/9

8.7

BB/9

2.1

Yamamoto is the clear edge with a 0.89 WHIP and 2.05 BB/9, elite command that limits free baserunners over a large 158-inning sample. Winquest has thrown only 3.0 innings with a 6.00 BB/9, so his profile is essentially unproven and control is the obvious concern. This is a decisive mismatch on the mound in favor of the home arm.

Offense Comparison

STLRank of 30LAD

4.5 #17 Runs / G 4.9 #4

0.241 #19 AVG 0.258 #2

1.06 #21 HR / G 1.22 #9

7.85 #27 K / G 7.85 #26

The Dodgers lineup pairs contact and pop, fronted by Ohtani, Freeman, and Betts, and should exploit a starter prone to walks. St. Louis whiffs a lot, ranking 27th with 7.85 K per game, a rough matchup against Yamamoto's swing-and-miss stuff. The Cardinals lack the stack appeal here, while LAD offers a top-heavy order well suited to punish command lapses.

Weather & Park

At first pitch · 10:10 PM ET

9 mph out to CF · favors hitters

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

76°

Rain

Humidity

33%

dry, denser air

Now: 58° · 3 mph out to LF · Smoky haze

At first pitch it is sunny, 76F with a 9 mph wind out to center flagged as a positive scoring impact in this outdoor park. That breeze modestly favors carry to the biggest part of the field.

DFS Angles

Stack the Dodgers against Winquest's 6.00 BB/9, with the wind out to center aiding power from a top-two AVG offense. Ohtani, Freeman, and Betts form the core group tonight.

Target Yamamoto as a strong DFS anchor given his 2.56 ERA and 8.72 K/9. Fade Winquest, whose 6.00 BB/9 and tiny sample make him volatile.

STL top bats

Alec Burleson 9.0 proj · $4,700 · 1.9x
Jordan Walker 8.8 proj · $5,400 · 1.6x
Ivan Herrera 8.5 proj · $4,400 · 1.9x
Joshua Baez 7.6 proj · $4,200 · 1.8x
Nolan Gorman 6.3 proj · $2,500 · 2.5x

LAD top bats

Shohei Ohtani 16.8 proj · $6,500 · 2.6x
Kyle Tucker 13.0 proj · $3,500 · 3.7x
Freddie Freeman 12.5 proj · $5,000 · 2.5x
Mookie Betts 12.3 proj · $4,200 · 2.9x
Tommy Edman 10.7 proj · $4,000 · 2.7x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Shohei Ohtani - over hits/total bases lean - projects a team-best 1.57 hits and 0.28 HR.
Mookie Betts - HR lean - projects 0.30 HR, tied for highest on the slate.
Freddie Freeman - over hits lean - projects 1.65 hits against a wild starter.
Kyle Tucker - value hits lean - 1.20 projected hits at just $3500.

On watch