Thu Nov 12, 8:15 PM ET · Prime Video · MetLife Stadium, New York
Division Ready
Washington Commanders
2-5 · 2-5 last season
Implied20.0
At
NYG -1.5 Total 41.5 Live line · WAS +114 · NYG -134
New York Giants
5-2 · 5-2 last season
Implied21.5
Line movement open Nov 10
NYG spread
-1.5 -1.5
no move
Total
41.5 41.5
no move
FanDuel
The angle
Lean · 4/10
NYG -1.5 but Daniels, Nabers and Likely all SMASH in a 41.5 coinflip.
SideBET HOME -1.5NYG holds the softer TE and WR matchups at home.
TotalBET UNDER 41.5drizzle plus NYG pass defense #3 (190 yds) caps scoring.
Best bet
Isaiah Likely over 4.5 receptions against WAS TE #30, the softest tight end matchup on the board.
Quick hits
- NYG -1.5, total 41.5, implied WAS 20.0 and NYG 21.5.
- Low scoring: 41.5 total, both teams inside top-21 offense, drizzle at kickoff.
- Nabers vs WAS WR #26 (34.4 fpa) is the decisive edge.
- Tight script: NYG favored by 1.5, balanced pass rates near 54-56%.
- McCarthy questionable (hip) is the swing that reshapes this game.
Key matchups
- Malik Nabers vs WAS WR #26: 34.4 fpa, elite spot, SMASH.
- Isaiah Likely vs WAS TE #30: 18.2 fpa, elite spot, SMASH.
- Jayden Daniels vs NYG QB #30: 20.5 fpa, elite spot, SMASH.
- Chig Okonkwo vs NYG TE #5: 10.9 fpa, toughest spot, fade.
- Rachaad White vs NYG RB #9: 21.1 fpa, hard box, NEUTRAL.
- Stefon Diggs vs NYG WR #13: 30.4 fpa, mid matchup, NEUTRAL.
| Team | Player | Pos | Proj | DK $ | vs defense | FPA | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAS |
Jayden Daniels | QB | 16.4 | $5,700 | NYG #30 of 32 | 20.5 | Smash |
| WAS |
Stefon Diggs | WR | 13.1 | $5,600 | NYG #13 of 32 | 30.4 | Neutral |
| WAS |
Chig Okonkwo | TE | 10.6 | $3,800 | NYG #5 of 32 | 10.9 | Tough |
| WAS |
Rachaad White | RB | 9.5 | $5,100 | NYG #9 of 32 | 21.1 | Neutral |
| NYG |
J.J. McCarthy | QB | 17.3 | $4,800 | WAS #24 of 32 | 19.7 | Favorable |
| NYG |
Malik Nabers | WR | 15.6 | $7,100 | WAS #26 of 32 | 34.4 | Smash |
| NYG |
Cam Skattebo | RB | 12.3 | $5,500 | WAS #19 of 32 | 23.5 | Neutral |
| NYG |
Isaiah Likely | TE | 12.0 | $5,300 | WAS #30 of 32 | 18.2 | Smash |
WAS skill positions vs NYG defenseQB
#30/32
20.5 fpa
RB
#9/32
21.1 fpa
WR
#13/32
30.4 fpa
TE
#5/32
10.9 fpa
NYG skill positions vs WAS defenseQB
#24/32
19.7 fpa
RB
#19/32
23.5 fpa
WR
#26/32
34.4 fpa
TE
#30/32
18.2 fpa
Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.
Game script & scoring
- Pace steady: NYG 66 plays (#6), WAS 62 (#17), pass rates 54 and 56%.
- Favorite NYG leads narrowly, dog WAS leans on 118 rush yds (#11).
- Points come from implied 21.5 and 20.0, red zone muted at 1.5 pass TD each.
Projected points (market implied)
WAS20.0
NYG21.5
Offense profile
WASRank of 32NYG
21.5
#21
Pts / G
22.8
#16
222.0
#22
Pass yds / G
237.8
#16
118.2
#11
Rush yds / G
112.1
#17
62.0
#17
Plays / G
65.9
#6
56%
Pass rate
54%
1.5
Pass TD / G
1.5
0.6
Rush TD / G
0.8
2.5
Sacks taken / G
3.4
0.1
INT thrown / G
0.8
Defense profile
WASRank of 32NYG
25.2
#24
Pts allowed / G
21.5
#12
256.1
#29
Pass yds allowed
189.8
#3
102.2
#12
Rush yds allowed
123.6
#21
2.1
Sacks / G
2.0
0.6
INT / G
0.8
2.0
Pass TD allowed
1.8
0.9
Rush TD allowed
0.9
Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 9 games per team.
Weather
At kickoff · 2026-11-12 20:00 local
Moderate impact
Conditions
Light drizzle
Temp
50°F
feels 45°
Wind
11 mph NE
gusts 22 mph
Rain
48%
0.01 in
Humidity
87%
- Wind 11 mph: minor, mostly on long kicks
- Rain chance 48%: watch for showers at kickoff
WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface
- Light drizzle, 50F, wind 11 mph gusting 22, rain chance 48%.
- Minor wind on long kicks, moderate shower risk trims passing and total.
- Leans the 41.5 under and dents deep-ball ceilings.
DFS
- Stack McCarthy ($4800, 3.61x) with Nabers and Likely in the softest spots.
- Value: McCarthy at $4800, 3.61x, cheapest viable QB on the slate.
- Fade Okonkwo ($3800) into NYG TE #5, toughest matchup on board.
- Contrarian: Daniels ($5700) vs NYG QB #30 as an overlooked road SMASH.
WAS projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jayden Daniels | 16.4 | 17.4 / 17.4 | $5,700 | 2.87x | $8,200 | #30 |
| WR | Stefon Diggs | 13.1 | 11.9 / 11.9 | $5,600 | 2.33x | $6,200 | #13 |
| TE | Chig Okonkwo | 10.6 | 10.4 / 10.4 | $3,800 | 2.79x | $5,000 | #5 |
| WR | Antonio Williams | 9.9 | 10.6 / 10.6 | $4,600 | 2.16x | $5,500 | #13 |
| RB | Rachaad White | 9.5 | 10.2 / 10.2 | $5,100 | 1.86x | $5,700 | #9 |
| RB | Austin Ekeler | 7.7 | 7.7 / 7.7 | $4,600 | 1.68x | $5,500 | #9 |
| WR | Van Jefferson | 3.4 | 3.3 / 3.3 | $3,200 | 1.06x | $5,200 | #13 |
NYG projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | J.J. McCarthy | 17.3 | 16.3 / 16.3 | $4,800 | 3.61x | $6,700 | #24 |
| WR | Malik Nabers | 15.6 | 14.8 / 14.8 | $7,100 | 2.20x | $7,600 | #26 |
| RB | Cam Skattebo | 12.3 | 11.7 / 11.7 | $5,500 | 2.24x | $6,000 | #19 |
| TE | Isaiah Likely | 12.0 | 11.5 / 11.5 | $5,300 | 2.26x | $5,500 | #30 |
| RB | Devin Singletary | 6.8 | 7.1 / 7.1 | $5,300 | 1.28x | $5,700 | #19 |
| WR | Malachi Fields | 6.0 | 6.4 / 6.4 | $3,700 | 1.62x | $5,300 | #26 |
| WR | Darnell Mooney | 4.2 | 4.2 / 4.2 | $3,500 | 1.20x | $4,900 | #26 |
Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).
Props
- Malik Nabers - rec yards 67.5 - over - vs WR #26, 34.4 fpa, projected 15.6.
- Isaiah Likely - receptions 4.5 - over - vs TE #30, projected 12.0.
- Jayden Daniels - rushing yards 35.5 - over - mobile QB vs QB #30.
- Chig Okonkwo - rec yards 36.5 - under - vs TE #5, 10.9 fpa, hip questionable.
| Player | Market | Line | Proj | Over | Book | Opp rank |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.J. McCarthy QB NYG | Pass TD | 1.5 | 0.5 | +167 | DraftKings | #28 |
| J.J. McCarthy QB NYG | Pass yds | 211.5 | 308.2 | -111 | BetOnline | #29 |
| J.J. McCarthy QB NYG | Rush yds | 17.5 | 25.3 | -114 | FanDuel | #12 |
| Jayden Daniels QB WAS | Pass TD | 1.5 | 0.9 | +168 | FanDuel | #23 |
| Jayden Daniels QB WAS | Pass yds | 201.5 | 167.5 | +100 | BetMGM | #3 |
| Jayden Daniels QB WAS | Rush yds | 35.5 | 33.8 | -110 | Fanatics | #21 |
| Malik Nabers WR NYG | Receptions | 5.5 | 5.8 | -125 | Bovada | #29 |
| Malik Nabers WR NYG | Rec yds | 67.5 | 71.4 | -111 | DraftKings | #29 |
| Stefon Diggs WR WAS | Receptions | 3.5 | 4.3 | +130 | FanDuel | #3 |
| Stefon Diggs WR WAS | Rec yds | 41.5 | 43.9 | -112 | DraftKings | #3 |
| Cam Skattebo RB NYG | Rush yds | 50.5 | 69.2 | -114 | FanDuel | #12 |
| Cam Skattebo RB NYG | Receptions | 1.5 | 1.8 | +130 | Bovada | #29 |
| Cam Skattebo RB NYG | Rec yds | 7.5 | 12.6 | -111 | DraftKings | #29 |
| Isaiah Likely TE NYG | Receptions | 4.5 | 4.3 | -123 | BetOnline | #29 |
Best available over price per line. Opp rank = the defense's rank in that stat allowed (32 allows the most).
All WAS and NYG props with AI gradesInjuries
WAS 8 listed- Out Marcus Mariota QB Knee Moderate
- Out Fabian Moreau CB Unknown Minimal
- Out Isaac Yiadom CB Unknown Minimal
- Quest. Charles Omenihu DE Unknown Minimal
- Quest. Chig Okonkwo TE Hip Minimal
- Quest. Colson Yankoff TE Unknown Minimal
- Quest. Lucas Patrick G Concussion Minimal
- Quest. Shy Tuttle DT Unknown Minimal
NYG 8 listed- Quest. J.J. McCarthy QB Hip Moderate
- Out Jarrick Bernard-Converse CB Unknown Minimal
- Out Thaddeus Dixon CB Unknown Minimal
- Quest. Abdul Carter OLB Unknown Minimal
- Quest. Charlie Jones WR Unknown Minimal
- Quest. Darnell Mooney WR Chest Minimal
- Quest. Greg Newsome II CB Concussion Minimal
- Quest. Theo Johnson TE Neck Minimal
Trends & head-to-head
- NYG won 3 of last 5, WAS lost 4 of last 5.
- Last meeting 27-27 tie on 2026-10-11, series split recently.
- Line flat: spread -1.5 and total 41.5 unmoved since open.
WAS last 5L 13-20 vs LAW 27-10 vs PHIL 17-23 @ SFL 27-27 vs NYGL 13-30 vs IND
NYG last 5W 19-11 @ PHIW 27-21 @ HOUL 27-34 vs NOL 27-27 @ WASW 36-24 vs ARI
Head-to-head
- Oct 11, 2026 NYG 27 at WAS 27
- Dec 14, 2025 WAS 29 at NYG 21
- Sep 7, 2025 NYG 6 at WAS 21
Watch list
- McCarthy hip questionable - his status swings NYG's passing and the side.
- Okonkwo and Mooney questionable - confirm actives before locking props.
- Rain chance 48% - rising precip strengthens the under.
Week 10 slate
All 14 games this week.
WAS @ NYG
Thu 8:15 PM ET
NYG -1.5
O/U 41.5
Ready
NE @ DET
Sun 9:30 AM ET
DET -2.5
O/U 50.5
Unlocks Fri 9:30 AM
BUF @ NYJ
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BUF -7.5
O/U 50.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
CAR @ NO
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NO -2.5
O/U 48.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
HOU @ CLE
Sun 1:00 PM ET
HOU -4.5
O/U 40.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
JAX @ TEN
Sun 1:00 PM ET
JAX -10.5
O/U 46.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
KC @ ATL
Sun 1:00 PM ET
KC -3.5
O/U 45.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
MIA @ IND
Sun 1:00 PM ET
IND -3.5
O/U 37.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
MIN @ GB
Sun 1:00 PM ET
GB -3.5
O/U 42.5
Unlocks Fri 1:00 PM
LA @ ARI
Sun 4:05 PM ET
LA -9.5
O/U 39.5
Unlocks Fri 4:05 PM
SEA @ LV
Sun 4:05 PM ET
SEA -6.5
O/U 40.5
Unlocks Fri 4:05 PM
SF @ DAL
Sun 4:25 PM ET
SF -4.5
O/U 55.5
Unlocks Fri 4:25 PM
PIT @ CIN
Sun 8:20 PM ET
CIN -3.5
O/U 49.5
Unlocks Fri 8:20 PM
LAC @ BAL
Mon 8:15 PM ET
BAL -4.5
O/U 38.5
Unlocks Sat 8:15 PM