Baltimore Orioles

64-67

St. Louis Cardinals

66-67

7:45 PM ET Busch Stadium MASN

Lean UNDER 8.5 at Busch, where wind blowing in from left and two efficient arms cap the scoring.

A 3 mph in-from-left wind flagged as negative meets balanced implied totals and a command-first home starter.

SidePASS, both moneylines are -104 with identical 4.2 implied totals.

TotalBET UNDER 8.5, wind in from left and McGreevy's command support it.

Lean6/10

Confidence

Wind 3 mph in from LF, brief flags impact negative.
Both team totals just 4.2 on an 8.5 line.
STL fans just 7.82 K/game, rank 27/30 contact.

Best Bet Under 8.5 is the highest-conviction play given the negative wind and command-driven home arm.

Total8.5

BAL Win51%

STL Win51%

Implied BAL4.2

Implied STL4.2

Vegas / Market

Total

8.5

Run line

STL 1.5

BAL ML

-104 51%

STL ML

-104 51%

BAL4.2

STL4.2

The line is a true pick-em with both sides -104 and de-vigged team totals equal at 4.2, signaling an efficient, no-edge side market. The 8.5 total sits slightly above the combined 8.4 implied, and the negative wind read nudges toward the under. No clear soft number on the moneyline to attack.

Pitching Matchup

BAL

Kyle Bradish

7-12 · 138.2 IP

ERA

3.83

WHIP

1.38

K/9

8.4

BB/9

3.9

STL

Michael McGreevy

5-9 · 137.1 IP

ERA

3.54

WHIP

1.21

K/9

6.2

BB/9

2.4

McGreevy holds the edge on command with a 2.36 BB/9 and 1.21 WHIP, pounding the zone despite modest 6.24 K/9. Bradish brings more swing-and-miss at 8.40 K/9 but pairs it with a shakier 3.91 BB/9 and 1.38 WHIP. Advantage St. Louis for run prevention, Baltimore for strikeout upside.

Offense Comparison

BALRank of 30STL

4.5 #14 Runs / G 4.4 #18

0.236 #25 AVG 0.240 #21

1.22 #10 HR / G 1.04 #21

9.20 #5 K / G 7.82 #27

Baltimore carries the bigger power threat at 1.22 HR/game (rank 10) but strikes out heavily, 9.20 per game (rank 5), which plays into McGreevy's zone-filling approach. St. Louis is a contact-first group, rank 27 in strikeouts, but lacks pop at 1.04 HR/game (rank 21), limiting stack ceiling against Bradish. Neither lineup profiles as a clean high-ceiling stack tonight.

Weather & Park

At first pitch · 7:45 PM ET

3 mph in from LF · favors pitchers

Conditions

Overcast

Temp

83°

Rain

14%

Humidity

60%

moderate

Now: 72° · 4 mph R to L cross · Overcast

Outdoor at Busch with 83F feels-like 85F, but the 3 mph wind in from left field is explicitly flagged as negative for scoring, and rain chance is only 14%.

DFS Angles

Mini-stack Baltimore for its power upside (1.22 HR/game, rank 10) against Bradish's counterpart, but keep it small given the run-suppressing wind. St. Louis offers little stack appeal with rank-21 power in a park playing down tonight.

Target McGreevy as a value arm given his 3.54 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in a suppressed environment. Bradish is a higher-variance K play but the 3.91 BB/9 and 1.38 WHIP make him a riskier core piece.

BAL top bats

Gunnar Henderson 12.4 proj · $5,000 · 2.5x
Pete Alonso 12.3 proj · $5,600 · 2.2x
Samuel Basallo 10.8 proj · $4,000 · 2.7x
Jackson Holliday 10.8 proj · $3,800 · 2.8x
Dylan Beavers 9.3 proj · $3,000 · 3.1x

STL top bats

Alec Burleson 11.8 proj · $5,200 · 2.3x
JJ Wetherholt 10.5 proj · $4,700 · 2.2x
Ivan Herrera 10.4 proj · $4,200 · 2.5x
Jordan Walker 10.3 proj · $5,700 · 1.8x
Joshua Baez 9.8 proj · $4,000 · 2.5x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Pete Alonso - hits lean - projects a team-best 1.45 H against Bradish-side matchup.
Alec Burleson - hits lean - team-high 1.56 projected H and 1.00 RBI.
Samuel Basallo - HR sprinkle - 0.30 projected HR at cheap $4000 salary.
Joshua Baez - RBI upside - 1.01 projected RBI despite low hit projection.

On watch