Colorado Rockies

51-81

Washington Nationals

62-72

6:45 PM ET Nationals Park Rockies.TV

Back Washington at -122 with Will Dion opposite a leaky Tanner Gordon.

The Nationals pair the better arm with a top-tier offense against a starter allowing hard contact.

SideBET HOME ML at -122.

TotalBET UNDER 9.0 with wind blowing in and Dion limiting contact.

Lean6/10

Confidence

Gordon carries a 5.75 ERA and 11.69 H/9 over 76.2 innings.
Washington ranks 2/30 in runs at 5.19 per game.
Dion owns a 0.50 WHIP across 12 small-sample innings.

Best Bet Under 9.0 is the highest-conviction play given the RF wind and Dion's suppression.

Total9.0

COL Win47%

WAS Win55%

Implied COL4.4

Implied WAS4.6

Vegas / Market

Total

9.0

Run line

WAS 1.5

COL ML

+112 47%

WAS ML

-122 55%

COL4.4

WAS4.6

The de-vigged team totals sit at COL 4.4 and WAS 4.6, a narrow gap that matches Washington's modest -122 price. There is no glaring value on the side, but the total of 9.0 looks generous given wind in from RF and Dion's suppression. The number is close to efficient on the moneyline.

Pitching Matchup

COL

Tanner Gordon

0-4 · 76.2 IP

ERA

5.75

WHIP

1.49

K/9

7.6

BB/9

1.8

WAS

Will Dion

1-0 · 12.0 IP

ERA

0.00

WHIP

0.50

K/9

9.8

BB/9

3.0

Dion has missed bats at a 9.75 K/9 and issued few baserunners, though 12.0 innings across five games is a tiny sample that should not be treated as sustainable. Gordon walks nobody (1.77 BB/9) but gets hit hard, with an 11.69 H/9 that undercuts his solid control. The command profiles are close, but Dion's swing-and-miss and stinginess give Washington the clear edge.

Offense Comparison

COLRank of 30WAS

4.7 #7 Runs / G 5.2 #2

0.252 #5 AVG 0.248 #9

1.11 #17 HR / G 1.38 #2

8.68 #7 K / G 8.34 #16

Washington's power-heavy lineup (1.38 HR/game, 2nd) fits well against a contact-allowing Gordon, with CJ Abrams and Dylan Crews anchoring stack appeal. Colorado hits for average (.252, 5th) and puts balls in play, but faces a starter limiting hits, making a big Rockies inning harder to bank on. Both offenses strike out a fair amount, so contact quality decides the night.

Weather & Park

At first pitch · 6:45 PM ET

9 mph in from RF · favors pitchers

Conditions

Overcast

Temp

84°

Rain

10%

Humidity

44%

moderate

Now: 71° · 2 mph in from RF · Overcast

Outdoor at Nationals Park with 84F and 9 mph wind blowing in from right field, a flagged negative for run scoring that should knock down some fly-ball damage. That leans slightly toward suppressed offense despite two capable lineups.

DFS Angles

Stack Washington bats around CJ Abrams and Dylan Crews against Gordon's 11.69 H/9, keeping expectations tempered by the negative RF wind. Abimelec Ortiz at $3100 (3.91x) is the standout salary-relief piece.

Target Will Dion for upside given his elite ratios, and consider fading Gordon in cash after four losses and a 5.75 ERA. Dion is the tournament pivot at low ownership risk.

COL top bats