Los Angeles Dodgers

80-52

Atlanta Braves

77-55

7:15 PM ET Truist Park SportsNet LA

Back the Dodgers on the moneyline at -126 against a wild, unproven Braves starter.

Los Angeles carries a top-3 offense into a clear starting pitching mismatch tonight.

SideBET AWAY ML at LAD -126.

TotalPASS on 8.5 with wind in and rain offsetting the pitching mismatch.

Strong7/10

Confidence

Sasaki's 4.42 ERA and 1.30 WHIP tower over Smith-Shawver's 6.23 mark.
Smith-Shawver walks 5.49 per nine across just 8.2 innings.
LAD offense ranks 3rd in runs at 4.97 per game.

Best Bet Dodgers moneyline at -126 is the highest-conviction play.

Total8.5

LAD Win56%

ATL Win46%

Implied LAD4.4

Implied ATL4.1

Vegas / Market

Total

8.5

Run line

ATL 1.5

LAD ML

-126 56%

ATL ML

+116 46%

LAD4.4

ATL4.1

The de-vigged implied totals sit at LAD 4.4 and ATL 4.1, and the -126 price on Los Angeles looks fair given the pitching gap. The market has not fully punished Smith-Shawver's tiny, ugly sample, leaving mild value on the Dodgers side. The total of 8.5 matches the summed implied runs, so there is no obvious number edge there.

Pitching Matchup

LAD

Roki Sasaki

5-5 · 116.0 IP

ERA

4.42

WHIP

1.30

K/9

8.8

BB/9

3.6

ATL

AJ Smith-Shawver

0-0 · 8.2 IP

ERA

6.23

WHIP

1.62

K/9

7.7

BB/9

5.5

Sasaki brings the steadier profile with an 8.84 K/9 and manageable 3.57 BB/9, giving him the clear edge. Smith-Shawver has thrown only 8.2 innings and his 5.49 BB/9 signals serious command trouble. The arm advantage sits firmly with Los Angeles.

Offense Comparison

LADRank of 30ATL

5.0 #3 Runs / G 4.7 #8

0.259 #2 AVG 0.246 #12

1.27 #8 HR / G 1.27 #7

7.86 #25 K / G 8.11 #19

The Dodgers pair the league's 2nd-best average (0.259) with the 8th-most homers (1.27/game) and should feast on a pitcher who cannot find the zone. Atlanta counters with matching power (1.27 HR/game, 7th) but a middling 0.246 average, needing to dent Sasaki. Both lineups carry stack appeal, but LAD's contact profile better exploits the walk-prone opponent.

Weather & Park

At first pitch · 7:15 PM ET

8 mph in from CF · favors pitchers

Conditions

Light rain shower

Temp

79°

Rain

25%

Humidity

64%

moderate

Now: 76° · 4 mph in from CF · Partly Cloudy

This is an outdoor park with light rain and a 25% shower chance, plus an 8 mph wind blowing in from center, a flagged negative for run scoring. Those conditions lean toward suppressing home runs at first pitch.

DFS Angles

Stack the Dodgers against Smith-Shawver's 5.49 BB/9, targeting the top of the order that reaches base cheaply. The wind in from center tempers a heavy home-run stack, so favor on-base and contact bats.

Target Sasaki as the strong-side arm in this mismatch; fade Smith-Shawver given his 6.23 ERA and 1.62 WHIP. Atlanta's starter is a leverage-tournament dart at best.

LAD top bats

Shohei Ohtani 16.3 proj · $6,500 · 2.5x
Mookie Betts 14.3 proj · $4,000 · 3.6x
Freddie Freeman 13.3 proj · $5,500 · 2.4x
Kyle Tucker 12.5 proj · $3,700 · 3.4x
Tommy Edman 11.5 proj · $3,500 · 3.3x

ATL top bats

Ronald Acuna Jr. 13.5 proj · $5,900 · 2.3x
Matt Olson 12.4 proj · $5,400 · 2.3x
Drake Baldwin 11.4 proj · $4,900 · 2.3x
Michael Harris II 10.9 proj · $4,400 · 2.5x
Ozzie Albies 9.4 proj · $4,200 · 2.3x

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Players to Watch

Prop leans

Freddie Freeman - over hits lean - team-high 1.65 projected hits versus a wild starter.
Mookie Betts - to score/RBI lean - 3.57x value at just $4000.
Matt Olson - HR lean tempered - 0.42 projected homers but wind blows in.
Kyle Tucker - over hits lean - 3.38x value at $3700 in a plus spot.

On watch