Back the Pirates on the road as Pittsburgh's top-5 offense draws St. Louis rookie Quinn Mathews and his 6.43 ERA.
Pittsburgh has the sharper arm, the deeper lineup, and a price tag under a coin flip at -110.
- PIT offense ranks 5th in runs at 4.87 per game.
- Mathews owns a 1.79 WHIP and 4.50 BB/9.
- Jones carries a 4.76 ERA versus Mathews' 6.43.
Vegas / Market
The de-vigged team totals sit nearly even at PIT 3.8 and STL 3.7, yet Pittsburgh is the road favorite at -110 with the better starter and offense. That pricing looks fair-to-slightly-soft on the Pirates given the pitching gap. The 7.5 total is squeezed by the incoming wind, leaving little clean edge either way.
Pitching Matchup
Jared Jones brings genuine swing-and-miss with a 10.19 K/9 and manageable 3.44 BB/9, giving him the clear stuff and command edge. Quinn Mathews has just 14 innings and has struggled badly, walking 4.50 per nine and posting a 1.79 WHIP. This is a lopsided arm matchup in Pittsburgh's favor.
Offense Comparison
Pittsburgh pairs strong contact, ranking 5th in average at .252, with the strikeout risk of a lineup that whiffs 9.47 times per game, second-most in the league. St. Louis is more passive, fanning just 7.85 times per game, but the bats are light overall, ranking 18th in runs and 21st in homers. Pittsburgh's lineup has the better shot to punish a wild starter, making them the more appealing stack.
Weather & Park
Busch Stadium is outdoors with 79F and a 7 mph wind blowing in from left field, a run-suppressing setup at first pitch. Rain chance is low at 11 percent, so no washout concern.
DFS Angles
Stack the Pirates against Mathews' 4.50 BB/9 and 6.43 ERA; the wind blowing in tempers homer upside but not on-base and RBI volume.
Target Jared Jones for strikeout upside behind his 10.19 K/9; fade or avoid Mathews given the ugly 1.79 WHIP.
- Oneil Cruz 12.8 proj · $6,400 · 2.0x
- Esmerlyn Valdez 12.4 proj · $4,400 · 2.8x
- Bryan Reynolds 12.1 proj · $4,900 · 2.5x
- Nick Gonzales 11.8 proj · $3,500 · 3.4x
- Rafael Flores Jr. 10.2 proj · $3,400 · 3.0x
- Alec Burleson 11.3 proj · $5,100 · 2.2x
- Jordan Walker 10.8 proj · $5,600 · 1.9x
- Ivan Herrera 10.5 proj · $4,100 · 2.6x
- Joshua Baez 10.3 proj · $4,000 · 2.6x
- JJ Wetherholt 9.7 proj · $4,600 · 2.1x
Players to Watch
- Nick Gonzales - over hits lean - projects a team-best 1.80 hits atop the order.
- Oneil Cruz - HR interest - $6400 bat projects 0.28 homers against a wild starter.
- Alec Burleson - over hits lean - STL's top projected bat at 1.49 hits.
- Esmerlyn Valdez - RBI upside - projects 1.05 RBI batting second.
- Quinn Mathews - tiny 14-inning sample makes his results volatile.
- Bryan Reynolds - projects a robust 1.50 hits at value $4900.
- Joshua Baez - low 0.68 hits but 0.41 projected homers signals boom-or-bust.
- Jared Jones - strikeout ceiling could swing both the total and DFS.
Form & Head-to-Head
Season series: PIT 2 – STL 5
St. Louis leads the season series 5-2 over Pittsburgh.
Today's MLB Slate
CIN @ CHC
LAD @ DET
MIA @ WAS
KC @ CLE
HOU @ NYM
SD @ TB
BOS @ NYY
SEA @ TOR
COL @ ATL
TEX @ MIL
CWS @ MIN
PIT @ STL
PHI @ LAA
BAL @ ATH
ARI @ SF
