With no odds posted, the actionable edge is Brandon Young's run-prevention gap over Jacob Lopez in a low-info spot.
Young's 3.50 ERA and steadier control outclass Lopez's 4.98 ERA and wild walk profile.
- Young owns a 3.50 ERA versus Lopez at 4.98.
- Lopez walks 4.50 per nine, Young just 3.29.
- BAL scores 4.54 per game, ranked 11th.
Vegas / Market
No game odds, total, or moneyline are available for this matchup. Without a posted number there is no de-vigged edge or implied team total to measure against my read. Any wager here would be blind, so I am not chasing a price that does not exist.
Pitching Matchup
Young brings the cleaner line at 3.50 ERA with a 1.36 WHIP and manageable 3.29 BB/9, giving him the reliability edge. Lopez misses more bats at 8.62 K/9 but undoes it with a 4.50 BB/9 and a bloated 1.47 WHIP, so his margin for error is thin. The nod goes to Young on command and overall run suppression.
Offense Comparison
Baltimore carries a bit more thump, ranking 9th at 1.22 HR/game, but it also whiffs a lot, ranking 5th-most at 9.20 K/game, which plays into Lopez's strikeout stuff. The Athletics make slightly more contact, ranking 13th in AVG at 0.246, and could pester the wilder Lopez side less, but they match up fine against Young's mid-range strikeout rate. Neither lineup is elite, so stack appeal is modest on both benches.
Weather & Park
Weather not yet available for this game.
Weather is not available for this game, so no wind or temperature read applies at outdoor Sutter Health Park.
DFS Angles
A light Baltimore stack around Pete Alonso and the top of the order makes sense against Lopez's 4.50 BB/9 and 1.47 WHIP, which invites traffic. The A's are a cheaper contrarian pivot if you want to fade Young's contact profile.
Young is the safer SP target given his 3.50 ERA and better control, and Lopez is more of a strikeout-upside dart than a cash-game anchor at 4.98 ERA.
- Pete Alonso 14.0 proj · $6,200 · 2.3x
- Coby Mayo 11.9 proj · $4,000 · 3.0x
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand 11.0 proj · $5,100 · 2.2x
- Gunnar Henderson 10.9 proj · $5,700 · 1.9x
- Jackson Holliday 10.8 proj · $4,400 · 2.5x
- Zack Gelof 12.5 proj · $5,500 · 2.3x
- Lawrence Butler 12.2 proj · $4,500 · 2.7x
- Henry Bolte 11.0 proj · $4,400 · 2.5x
- Jeff McNeil 10.4 proj · $3,900 · 2.7x
- Max Muncy 9.6 proj · $3,300 · 2.9x
Players to Watch
- Pete Alonso - hits/total bases lean - team-high 14.0 projected fpts and 0.44 projected HR.
- Christian Encarnacion-Strand - RBI lean - 1.30 projected RBI leads the Baltimore bats.
- Zack Gelof - hits lean - A's-best 12.5 projected fpts at 1.50 projected hits.
- Jeff McNeil - hits lean - 1.35 projected hits at value $3900 salary.
- Coby Mayo - top value at 2.98x on $4000 salary.
- Max Muncy - punt-priced 2.91x value at $3300.
- Lawrence Butler - 2.71x value and cleanup power upside.
- Henry Bolte - leadoff bat with 1.35 projected hits.
Form & Head-to-Head
Season series: BAL 1 – ATH 2
The Athletics lead the season series 2-1 over Baltimore.
Today's MLB Slate
CIN @ CHC
LAD @ DET
MIA @ WAS
KC @ CLE
HOU @ NYM
SD @ TB
BOS @ NYY
SEA @ TOR
COL @ ATL
TEX @ MIL
CWS @ MIN
PIT @ STL
PHI @ LAA
BAL @ ATH
ARI @ SF
