Archived Week 6 breakdown.
The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board.
See this week's breakdowns
Sun Oct 18, 4:05 PM ET · FOX · SoFi Stadium, Inglewood
Division Indoor Final
Arizona Cardinals
1-4 · 2-4 last season
Final18
At
LA -1.5 Total 35.5 ARI covered · Under
Los Angeles Rams
2-3 · 2-4 last season
Final16
Line movement open Oct 13
LA spread
-12.5 -1.5
11.0
Total
51.5 35.5
16.0
The angle, before kickoff
Play · 6/10
LA -12.5 with a 32.0 implied total, and Stafford smashes the NFL's #32 scoring defense.
SidePASSprojected margin 12.5 equals the spread exactly.
TotalPASSimplied total 51.5 matches the line exactly.
Best bet
Matthew Stafford over 281.5 passing yards, projected 23.7 fantasy points in a smash spot against Arizona's #29 QB defense.
Quick hits
- Market: LA -12.5, total 51.5, implied LA 32.0 and ARI 19.5.
- High scoring: ARI defense allows a league-worst 32.4 points, #32.
- Decisive matchup: Stafford vs ARI #29 QB defense, projected 23.7, smash.
- Script: LA leads big and runs, ARI trails and throws at 62% pass rate.
- Swing factor: ARI RB depth thin, Benson out and Love questionable.
Key matchups
- Matthew Stafford vs ARI #29 QB: 21.8 fpa, elite spot, smash.
- Puka Nacua vs ARI #25 WR: 36.2 fpa, proj 24.6, favorable.
- Kyren Williams vs ARI #25 RB: 24.8 fpa, proj 18.6, favorable.
- Tyler Higbee vs ARI #28 TE: 18.8 fpa, proj 8.5, smash value.
- Trey McBride vs LA #2 TE: 9.1 fpa, proj 17.1, tough.
- Michael Wilson vs LA #8 WR: 29.8 fpa, proj 13.7, neutral.
| Team | Player | Pos | Proj | DK $ | vs defense | FPA | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI |
Jacoby Brissett | QB | 16.4 | $5,800 | LA #19 of 32 | 18.1 | Neutral |
| ARI |
Trey McBride | TE | 16.1 | $7,200 | LA #3 of 32 | 10.1 | Tough |
| ARI |
Michael Wilson | WR | 14.0 | $6,700 | LA #8 of 32 | 29.6 | Neutral |
| ARI |
Tyler Allgeier | RB | 11.2 | $4,800 | LA #15 of 32 | 21.5 | Neutral |
| LA |
Puka Nacua | WR | 22.7 | $8,100 | ARI #20 of 32 | 33.8 | Favorable |
| LA |
Matthew Stafford | QB | 22.6 | $6,400 | ARI #29 of 32 | 21.4 | Smash |
| LA |
Kyren Williams | RB | 21.2 | $6,800 | ARI #27 of 32 | 25.1 | Smash |
| LA |
Tyler Higbee | TE | 8.0 | $3,400 | ARI #29 of 32 | 19.4 | Smash |
ARI skill positions vs LA defenseQB
#19/32
18.1 fpa
RB
#15/32
21.5 fpa
WR
#8/32
29.6 fpa
TE
#3/32
10.1 fpa
LA skill positions vs ARI defenseQB
#29/32
21.4 fpa
RB
#27/32
25.1 fpa
WR
#20/32
33.8 fpa
TE
#29/32
19.4 fpa
Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.
Game script & scoring
- LA runs 71 plays at #2 pace, 63% pass; ARI 67 plays, #4.
- LA leads early and leans run; ARI chases with volume passing.
- Points flow to LA's 32.0 implied; ARI's 19.5 caps the upset.
Projected points (market implied)
ARI17.0
LA18.5
Offense profile
ARIRank of 32LA
21.0
#24
Pts / G
22.5
#21
222.5
#21
Pass yds / G
301.8
#2
96.3
#22
Rush yds / G
112.7
#15
67.3
#4
Plays / G
68.3
#3
60%
Pass rate
63%
1.5
Pass TD / G
1.8
0.5
Rush TD / G
1.0
2.0
Sacks taken / G
1.7
1.0
INT thrown / G
1.0
Defense profile
ARIRank of 32LA
29.7
#30
Pts allowed / G
23.0
#17
246.8
#23
Pass yds allowed
175.3
#2
120.8
#20
Rush yds allowed
127.0
#26
2.3
Sacks / G
1.3
0.5
INT / G
0.8
2.7
Pass TD allowed
1.3
1.0
Rush TD allowed
0.7
Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 6 games per team.
Weather
Indoor: no weather factor. SoFi Stadium is a covered venue.
- Indoor: no weather factor.
DFS
- Stack: Stafford with Nacua, both plus-matchups into ARI's #32 defense.
- Value: Higbee $3400 at 2.50x, smash vs ARI #28 TE.
- Fade: McBride $7200 into LA's #2 TE defense, capped ceiling.
- Contrarian: Kyren Williams $6800, game-script run volume if LA leads big.
ARI projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jacoby Brissett | 16.4 | 10.0 / 24.3 | $5,800 | 2.83x | $10,200 | #19 |
| TE | Trey McBride | 16.1 | 8.8 / 26.4 | $7,200 | 2.24x | $10,800 | #3 |
| WR | Michael Wilson | 14.0 | 6.3 / 23.2 | $6,700 | 2.09x | $8,800 | #8 |
| RB | Tyler Allgeier | 11.2 | 6.0 / 19.7 | $4,800 | 2.32x | $6,400 | #15 |
| WR | Kendrick Bourne | 7.8 | 2.7 / 14.0 | $4,000 | 1.95x | $7,200 | #8 |
| WR | Jalen Brooks | 4.7 | 0.0 / 11.2 | $3,200 | 1.47x | $2,000 | #8 |
| TE | Elijah Higgins | 3.8 | 0.0 / 8.7 | $2,700 | 1.39x | $4,000 | #3 |
LA projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WR | Puka Nacua | 22.7 | 12.2 / 35.3 | $8,100 | 2.81x | $13,000 | #20 |
| QB | Matthew Stafford | 22.6 | 14.0 / 30.9 | $6,400 | 3.53x | $11,400 | #29 |
| RB | Kyren Williams | 21.2 | 11.4 / 29.6 | $6,800 | 3.12x | $12,000 | #27 |
| WR | Davante Adams out | 14.7 | 6.5 / 25.6 | $6,600 | 2.23x | $9,600 | #20 |
| RB | Blake Corum | 9.6 | 4.0 / 16.6 | $4,800 | 2.00x | $7,600 | #27 |
| TE | Tyler Higbee | 8.0 | 2.9 / 15.1 | $3,400 | 2.34x | $5,000 | #29 |
| TE | Colby Parkinson | 3.9 | 0.0 / 10.8 | $3,100 | 1.27x | $5,600 | #29 |
Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).
Props
- Matthew Stafford - passing yards 281.5 - over - proj 23.7 vs #29 QB defense.
- Puka Nacua - receiving yards 94.5 - over - proj 24.6 vs #25 WR.
- Tyler Higbee - receptions 2.5 (o+135) - over - smash vs #28 TE.
- Trey McBride - receiving yards 63.5 - under - LA #2 TE defense.
Injuries
ARI 8 listed- Out Carson Beck QB Coach'S Decision Severe
- Out Jameson Geers TE Unknown Severe
- Out Jeremiyah Love RB Unknown Severe
- Out Trey Benson RB Knee Severe
- Out Andrew Billings DT Unknown Minimal
- Out Andrew Wingard FS Unknown Minimal
- Out Chase Bisontis G Unknown Minimal
- Out Jerrick Reed II FS Unknown Minimal
LA 8 listed- Out CJ Daniels WR Unknown Severe
- Out Tutu Atwell WR Coach'S Decision Severe
- Out Ty Simpson QB Coach'S Decision Severe
- Out Bill Murray DT Unknown Minimal
- Out Daniel Rickert DE Knee Minimal
- Out Eddie Walls III LB Undisclosed Minimal
- Out Larrell Murchison DE Unknown Minimal
- Out Trent McDuffie CB Groin Minimal
Trends & head-to-head
- Form: ARI lost 4 straight, including 21-45 to DET last week.
- H2H: LA won the last two 37-20 and 45-17.
- Line: spread frozen at -12.5, total unmoved at 51.5 since open.
ARI last 5W 18-16 @ LAL 21-45 vs DETL 24-36 @ NYGL 30-36 @ SFL 7-31 vs SEA
LA last 5L 16-18 vs ARIL 34-37 vs BUFW 24-20 @ PHIL 26-30 @ DENW 28-6 vs NYG
Head-to-head
- Oct 18, 2026 ARI 18 at LA 16
- Jan 4, 2026 ARI 20 at LA 37
- Dec 7, 2025 LA 45 at ARI 17
Watch list
- ARI RB room: Benson out, Love questionable, could boost Allgeier volume.
- LA TE status: Parkinson and Davis Allen questionable, lifts Higbee workload.
- Line move: watch spread off -12.5 for sharp lean before kickoff.
Week 6 slate
All 14 games this week.
SEA @ DEN
Thu 8:15 PM ET
DEN -1.5
O/U 39.5
Final
HOU @ JAX
Sun 9:30 AM ET
HOU -3.5
O/U 60.5
Final
BAL @ CLE
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BAL -7.5
O/U 26.5
Final
CAR @ PHI
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CAR -4.5
O/U 39.5
Final
CHI @ ATL
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CHI -7.5
O/U 58.5
Final
NO @ NYG
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NO -10.5
O/U 58.5
Final
NYJ @ NE
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NE -7.5
O/U 43.5
Final
PIT @ TB
Sun 1:00 PM ET
TB -2.5
O/U 35.5
Final
TEN @ IND
Sun 1:00 PM ET
TEN -3.5
O/U 43.5
Final
ARI @ LA
Sun 4:05 PM ET
LA -1.5
O/U 35.5
Final
BUF @ LV
Sun 4:25 PM ET
BUF -3.5
O/U 51.5
Final
LAC @ KC
Sun 4:25 PM ET
KC -12.5
O/U 32.5
Final
DAL @ GB
Sun 8:20 PM ET
DAL -1.5
O/U 53.5
Final
WAS @ SF
Mon 8:15 PM ET
SF -7.5
O/U 51.5
Kicked off