Archived Week 6 breakdown.
The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board.
See this week's breakdowns
Sun Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET · CBS · Raymond James Stadium, Tampa Bay
Final
Pittsburgh Steelers
3-2 · 4-2 last season
Final26
At
TB -2.5 Total 35.5 PIT covered · Over
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
1-4 · 1-5 last season
Final19
Line movement open Oct 13
TB spread
+2.5 -2.5
5.0
Total
39.5 35.5
4.0
The angle, before kickoff
Pass · 2/10
Wind 25 mph into a 38.5 total: this game screams under.
SidePASSimplied margin 2.5 equals the spread with no line move.
TotalBET UNDER 38.525 mph wind and two bottom-10 scoring offenses.
Best bet
Under 38.5: wind 25 mph and two low-scoring offenses point sharply down.
Quick hits
- PIT -2.5, total 38.5; implied PIT 20.5, TB 18.0.
- Low-scoring: 25 mph wind plus two bottom-10 scoring offenses.
- Rodgers vs TB #21 QB defense is the softest passing spot.
- PIT leads narrowly, both lean run given wind and script.
- Metcalf questionable swaps the entire PIT passing hierarchy.
Key matchups
- Pat Freiermuth vs TB #24 TE: 15.8 fpa, favorable, but questionable.
- Aaron Rodgers vs TB #21 QB: 18.5 fpa, favorable passing matchup.
- Cade Otton vs PIT #23 TE: 15.5 fpa, favorable for the dog.
- Jaylen Warren vs TB #4 RB: 18.9 fpa, toughest spot on the board.
- DK Metcalf vs TB #14 WR: 30.9 fpa, neutral and status uncertain.
- Bucky Irving vs PIT #15 RB: 21.1 fpa, neutral volume play.
| Team | Player | Pos | Proj | DK $ | vs defense | FPA | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT |
Jaylen Warren | RB | 16.9 | $7,000 | TB #4 of 32 | 18.9 | Tough |
| PIT |
Aaron Rodgers | QB | 14.4 | $5,500 | TB #20 of 32 | 18.2 | Favorable |
| PIT |
DK Metcalf | WR | 12.1 | $5,700 | TB #19 of 32 | 32.8 | Neutral |
| PIT |
Pat Freiermuth | TE | 8.2 | $4,400 | TB #24 of 32 | 15.5 | Favorable |
| TB |
Jalon Daniels | QB | 15.5 | $4,800 | PIT #12 of 32 | 16.7 | Neutral |
| TB |
Bucky Irving | RB | 12.7 | $6,200 | PIT #8 of 32 | 19.9 | Neutral |
| TB |
Emeka Egbuka | WR | 11.7 | $5,200 | PIT #18 of 32 | 32.8 | Neutral |
| TB |
Cade Otton | TE | 8.3 | $3,300 | PIT #21 of 32 | 14.5 | Favorable |
PIT skill positions vs TB defenseQB
#20/32
18.2 fpa
RB
#4/32
18.9 fpa
WR
#19/32
32.8 fpa
TE
#24/32
15.5 fpa
TB skill positions vs PIT defenseQB
#12/32
16.7 fpa
RB
#8/32
19.9 fpa
WR
#18/32
32.8 fpa
TE
#21/32
14.5 fpa
Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.
Game script & scoring
- PIT 62 plays 63% pass; TB 61 plays and run-heavy at 53% pass.
- PIT favored by 2.5 should stay balanced; TB chases but leans ground.
- Points scarce: implied 38.5, both offenses rank 18th or worse in scoring.
Projected points (market implied)
PIT16.5
TB19.0
Offense profile
PITRank of 32TB
22.8
#18
Pts / G
19.8
#25
248.2
#13
Pass yds / G
186.0
#29
99.2
#20
Rush yds / G
127.8
#9
64.0
#11
Plays / G
62.8
#14
64%
Pass rate
55%
2.0
Pass TD / G
0.8
0.2
Rush TD / G
0.8
3.2
Sacks taken / G
3.7
0.8
INT thrown / G
1.2
Defense profile
PITRank of 32TB
21.3
#12
Pts allowed / G
23.0
#18
222.5
#9
Pass yds allowed
238.3
#19
103.2
#14
Rush yds allowed
75.5
#2
2.7
Sacks / G
1.8
1.0
INT / G
1.0
1.0
Pass TD allowed
1.5
0.7
Rush TD allowed
0.3
Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 6 games per team.
Weather
At kickoff · 2026-10-18 18:00 local
Moderate impact
Conditions
Sunny
Temp
80°F
feels 76°
Wind
25 mph WNW
gusts 32 mph
Rain
1%
0.00 in
Humidity
42%
- Wind 25 mph (gusts 32): deep passing and kicking suffer, lean under
WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface
- Wind 25 mph gusts 27 at 76F, rain just 4%.
- Deep passing and kicking suffer, moderate under impact.
- Favors run game and short throws, caps QB ceilings.
DFS
- Stack Rodgers with Freiermuth into TB #24 TE if Muth clears.
- Value Cade Otton $3300 at 2.60x vs PIT #23 TE.
- Fade Jaylen Warren $7000 at 2.48x into TB #4 run defense.
- Contrarian Germie Bernard $4000 at 2.67x with three PIT WRs out.
PIT projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | Jaylen Warren | 16.9 | 10.1 / 25.6 | $7,000 | 2.42x | $11,800 | #4 |
| QB | Aaron Rodgers | 14.4 | 8.8 / 22.1 | $5,500 | 2.62x | $11,200 | #20 |
| WR | DK Metcalf | 12.1 | 5.1 / 20.8 | $5,700 | 2.12x | $10,600 | #19 |
| WR | Germie Bernard | 8.6 | 3.8 / 16.4 | $4,000 | 2.15x | $8,200 | #19 |
| TE | Pat Freiermuth | 8.2 | 3.3 / 15.2 | $4,400 | 1.85x | $7,600 | #24 |
| RB | Rico Dowdle | 6.5 | 3.0 / 12.6 | $4,700 | 1.38x | $8,600 | #4 |
| TE | Darnell Washington | 5.7 | 1.6 / 11.8 | $2,900 | 1.98x | $3,800 | #24 |
TB projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Jalon Daniels | 15.5 | 9.2 / 22.5 | $4,800 | 3.23x | $10,200 | #12 |
| RB | Bucky Irving | 12.7 | 7.5 / 21.2 | $6,200 | 2.04x | $12,200 | #8 |
| WR | Emeka Egbuka | 11.7 | 4.9 / 18.6 | $5,200 | 2.25x | $9,800 | #18 |
| WR | Chris Godwin Jr. | 9.5 | 3.9 / 15.2 | $4,400 | 2.16x | $7,200 | #18 |
| TE | Cade Otton | 8.3 | 3.4 / 14.3 | $3,300 | 2.51x | $5,200 | #21 |
| RB | Kenny Gainwell | 6.2 | 2.9 / 11.8 | $4,400 | 1.40x | $4,800 | #8 |
| WR | Ted Hurst III | 4.5 | 0.1 / 10.1 | $3,000 | 1.50x | $5,600 | #18 |
Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).
Props
- Cade Otton - receptions over 3.5 (o+120) - favorable vs PIT #23 TE.
- Jaylen Warren - rushing under 60.5 - TB allows 73 rush yds, #2 run D.
- Aaron Rodgers - passing yards under 225.5 - 25 mph wind caps deep shots.
- Bucky Irving - rushing over 65.5 (o-113) - TB leans run at 53% pass rate.
Injuries
PIT 8 listed- Out Ben Skowronek WR Unknown Severe
- Out Cole Burgess WR Unknown Severe
- Out Drew Allar QB Coach'S Decision Severe
- Out Eli Heidenreich RB Coach'S Decision Severe
- Out Will Howard QB Coach'S Decision Severe
- Out Donte Kent CB Undisclosed Minimal
- Out Jack Driscoll OT Undisclosed Minimal
- Out Kevin Jobity Jr. DT Unknown Minimal
TB 8 listed- Out Baker Mayfield QB Unknown Severe
- Out Sean Tucker RB Quadriceps Severe
- Out Antoine Winfield Jr. FS Unknown Minimal
- Out Benjamin Morrison CB Quadriceps Minimal
- Out Billy Schrauth G Unknown Minimal
- Out DeMonte Capehart DT Unknown Minimal
- Out Luke Haggard G Unknown Minimal
- Out Mohamed Kamara OLB Knee Minimal
Trends & head-to-head
- PIT 3-2 and won 34-22 vs IND last out; TB 1-4.
- H2H: TB 18 at PIT 20 in 2022, one-score game.
- Total dropped 39.5 to 38.5; spread held at 2.5.
PIT last 5W 26-19 @ TBW 34-22 vs INDL 24-27 @ CLEW 30-27 vs CINL 3-20 @ NE
TB last 5L 19-26 vs PITW 24-16 @ DALL 14-17 vs GBL 16-23 vs MINL 19-23 vs CLE
Head-to-head
- Oct 18, 2026 PIT 26 at TB 19
- Oct 16, 2022 TB 18 at PIT 20
Watch list
- DK Metcalf questionable - his status reshapes the PIT WR room.
- Freiermuth and Dowdle questionable - confirm before locking PIT skill plays.
- Wind speed update - sub-20 mph would soften the under case.
Week 6 slate
All 14 games this week.
SEA @ DEN
Thu 8:15 PM ET
DEN -1.5
O/U 39.5
Final
HOU @ JAX
Sun 9:30 AM ET
HOU -3.5
O/U 60.5
Final
BAL @ CLE
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BAL -7.5
O/U 26.5
Final
CAR @ PHI
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CAR -4.5
O/U 39.5
Final
CHI @ ATL
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CHI -7.5
O/U 58.5
Final
NO @ NYG
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NO -10.5
O/U 58.5
Final
NYJ @ NE
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NE -7.5
O/U 43.5
Final
PIT @ TB
Sun 1:00 PM ET
TB -2.5
O/U 35.5
Final
TEN @ IND
Sun 1:00 PM ET
TEN -3.5
O/U 43.5
Final
ARI @ LA
Sun 4:05 PM ET
LA -1.5
O/U 35.5
Final
BUF @ LV
Sun 4:25 PM ET
BUF -3.5
O/U 51.5
Final
LAC @ KC
Sun 4:25 PM ET
KC -12.5
O/U 32.5
Final
DAL @ GB
Sun 8:20 PM ET
DAL -1.5
O/U 53.5
Final
WAS @ SF
Mon 8:15 PM ET
SF -7.5
O/U 51.5
Kicked off