Archived Week 6 breakdown.
The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board.
See this week's breakdowns
Sun Oct 18, 4:25 PM ET · CBS · Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas
Indoor Final
Buffalo Bills
4-1 · 5-1 last season
Final33
At
BUF -3.5 Total 51.5 LV covered · Over
Las Vegas Raiders
3-2 · 3-3 last season
Final30
Line movement open Oct 13
LV spread
+5.5 +3.5
2.0
Total
53.5 51.5
2.0
The angle, before kickoff
Lean · 4/10
Allen smashes LV #28 QB defense in a 53.5 shootout at Allegiant.
SideBET AWAY -5.5BUF implied 29.5 and Allen SMASH vs LV #28 QB.
TotalPASSprojected 53.5 sits exactly on the 53.5 line.
Best bet
Josh Allen over 239.5 passing yards against the league's 28th-ranked QB defense.
Quick hits
- BUF -5.5, total 53.5, implied BUF 29.5 LV 24.0.
- High scoring, both offenses top-12, both defenses leak points.
- Allen vs LV #28 vs QB (20.4 fpa) is the SMASH spot.
- BUF leads and runs, Vegas forced to pass-chase behind Cousins.
- DJ Moore questionable shoulder reshuffles the Buffalo receiver room.
Key matchups
- Josh Allen vs LV #28 QB: 20.4 fpa, soft, SMASH.
- Ashton Jeanty vs BUF #28 RB: 26.2 fpa, soft, SMASH.
- Tre Tucker vs BUF #27 WR: 37.6 fpa, soft, SMASH.
- James Cook vs LV #22 RB: 24.1 fpa, favorable.
- Brock Bowers vs BUF #8 TE: 10.6 fpa, tough, NEUTRAL.
- Dalton Kincaid vs LV #25 TE: 16.0 fpa, favorable low-cost.
| Team | Player | Pos | Proj | DK $ | vs defense | FPA | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF |
Josh Allen | QB | 26.2 | $7,500 | LV #28 of 32 | 20.9 | Smash |
| BUF |
James Cook III | RB | 20.7 | $7,400 | LV #26 of 32 | 25.0 | Smash |
| BUF |
Dalton Kincaid | TE | 12.8 | $5,100 | LV #25 of 32 | 15.8 | Favorable |
| BUF |
Khalil Shakir | WR | 12.3 | $5,300 | LV #21 of 32 | 34.8 | Favorable |
| LV |
Ashton Jeanty | RB | 17.1 | $6,500 | BUF #30 of 32 | 25.8 | Smash |
| LV |
Brock Bowers | TE | 16.7 | $7,500 | BUF #13 of 32 | 12.3 | Neutral |
| LV |
Kirk Cousins | QB | 16.5 | $5,400 | BUF #26 of 32 | 20.1 | Smash |
| LV |
Tre Tucker | WR | 9.0 | $4,700 | BUF #26 of 32 | 36.3 | Smash |
BUF skill positions vs LV defenseQB
#28/32
20.9 fpa
RB
#26/32
25.0 fpa
WR
#21/32
34.8 fpa
TE
#25/32
15.8 fpa
LV skill positions vs BUF defenseQB
#26/32
20.1 fpa
RB
#30/32
25.8 fpa
WR
#26/32
36.3 fpa
TE
#13/32
12.3 fpa
Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.
Game script & scoring
- LV runs 65 plays (#8) at 57% pass; BUF 59 plays at 48% pass.
- BUF leads and leans on 158 rush yards (#5); LV throws to chase.
- Points flow BUF 29.5 red zone via Cook rush TDs, LV via Bowers and Tucker.
Projected points (market implied)
BUF27.5
LV24.0
Offense profile
BUFRank of 32LV
32.8
#1
Pts / G
27.0
#6
254.5
#10
Pass yds / G
271.7
#8
148.8
#5
Rush yds / G
79.2
#30
59.8
#25
Plays / G
64.3
#10
49%
Pass rate
58%
1.5
Pass TD / G
2.3
2.3
Rush TD / G
0.5
2.0
Sacks taken / G
1.3
0.7
INT thrown / G
0.8
Defense profile
BUFRank of 32LV
28.5
#28
Pts allowed / G
27.0
#26
298.7
#31
Pass yds allowed
254.7
#25
101.0
#13
Rush yds allowed
134.3
#28
1.8
Sacks / G
2.5
0.5
INT / G
0.7
2.5
Pass TD allowed
2.2
1.0
Rush TD allowed
1.2
Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 6 games per team.
Weather
Indoor: no weather factor. Allegiant Stadium is a covered venue.
- Indoor: no weather factor.
DFS
- Stack Allen with Cook into LV's soft #28 QB and #22 RB spots.
- Value Dalton Kincaid $5100 (1.97x) vs LV #25 TE if Moore sits.
- Fade Brock Bowers $7500 into BUF #8 TE, 10.6 fpa, tough.
- Contrarian Tre Tucker $4700 (2.19x) vs BUF #27 WR, SMASH ceiling 17.4.
- [/TRENDS]
- [DFS]
- Stack Allen plus Cook attacks LV #28 QB and #22 RB.
- Value Kincaid $5100 (1.97x) vs LV #25 TE.
- Fade Bowers $7500 into BUF #8 TE, 10.6 fpa.
- Contrarian Tucker $4700 (2.19x) vs BUF #27 WR SMASH.
BUF projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QB | Josh Allen | 26.2 | 17.2 / 35.9 | $7,500 | 3.49x | $13,200 | #28 |
| RB | James Cook III | 20.7 | 10.3 / 29.3 | $7,400 | 2.79x | $12,000 | #26 |
| TE | Dalton Kincaid | 12.8 | 5.2 / 21.8 | $5,100 | 2.50x | $8,800 | #25 |
| WR | Khalil Shakir | 12.3 | 5.3 / 21.0 | $5,300 | 2.32x | $8,200 | #21 |
| WR | Keon Coleman | 9.8 | 4.0 / 18.9 | $4,900 | 2.01x | $7,000 | #21 |
| RB | Ty Johnson | 5.8 | 1.8 / 11.5 | $4,700 | 1.23x | $5,800 | #26 |
| TE | Dawson Knox | 4.5 | 0.4 / 10.8 | $2,600 | 1.75x | $3,400 | #25 |
LV projected players| Pos | Player | Proj | Floor / ceil | DK $ | Val | FD $ | vs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| RB | Ashton Jeanty | 17.1 | 10.0 / 26.2 | $6,500 | 2.64x | $10,200 | #30 |
| TE | Brock Bowers | 16.7 | 8.9 / 29.3 | $7,500 | 2.23x | $11,400 | #13 |
| QB | Kirk Cousins | 16.5 | 10.4 / 25.5 | $5,400 | 3.06x | $10,800 | #26 |
| WR | Tre Tucker | 9.0 | 3.8 / 17.6 | $4,700 | 1.91x | $7,600 | #26 |
| TE | Michael Mayer | 8.2 | 2.9 / 14.2 | $3,200 | 2.56x | $3,600 | #13 |
| WR | Jalen Nailor | 5.7 | 1.5 / 12.4 | $3,700 | 1.54x | $5,000 | #26 |
| RB | Mike Washington Jr. | 3.9 | 1.1 / 9.8 | $5,000 | 0.78x | $4,000 | #30 |
Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).
Props
- Josh Allen - passing yards o239.5 - lean over - vs #28 QB, proj 27.2.
- Ashton Jeanty - rushing yards o55.5 - lean over - BUF #28 RB, 26.2 fpa.
- Tre Tucker - receiving yards o39.5 - lean over - BUF #27 WR, SMASH.
- James Cook - rushing yards o94.5 - lean over - LV #22 RB, proj 18.7.
Injuries
BUF 8 listed- Out DJ Moore WR Shoulder Severe
- Out Tyrell Shavers WR Unknown Severe
- Quest. Ty Johnson RB Hamstring Moderate
- Out Ar'maj Reed-Adams G Unknown Minimal
- Out Ed Oliver DT Knee Minimal
- Out Jude Bowry OT Unknown Minimal
- Out Michael Danna OLB Unknown Minimal
- Quest. Landon Jackson DE Unknown Minimal
LV 8 listed- Out Aidan O'Connell QB Coach'S Decision Severe
- Out Chris Collier RB Undisclosed Severe
- Out Corey Rucker WR Undisclosed Severe
- Out Brennan Jackson OLB Unknown Minimal
- Out Bryce Cabeldue G Unknown Minimal
- Out Cian Slone OLB Unknown Minimal
- Out Dalton Johnson FS Unknown Minimal
- Out Justin Pickett G Unknown Minimal
Trends & head-to-head
- BUF 4-1, won 4 of last 5 including 37-34 at LA.
- Last meeting 2023: BUF 38 LV 10, Buffalo routed.
- Line flat since open, spread 5.5, total 53.5, no movement.
BUF last 5W 33-30 @ LVW 37-34 @ LAL 26-29 vs NEW 24-16 vs LACW 41-31 vs DET
LV last 5L 30-33 vs BUFL 17-45 @ NEL 27-30 vs KCW 35-27 @ NOW 26-14 @ LAC
Head-to-head
- Oct 18, 2026 BUF 33 at LV 30
- Sep 17, 2023 LV 10 at BUF 38
Watch list
- DJ Moore shoulder questionable - his status shifts targets to Shakir and Kincaid.
- Ty Johnson hamstring questionable - monitors Cook's backfield workload.
- Spencer Brown back and Ed Oliver knee questionable - affect both lines.
- Jalen Nailor concussion questionable - thins LV's receiver depth behind Tucker.
Week 6 slate
All 14 games this week.
SEA @ DEN
Thu 8:15 PM ET
DEN -1.5
O/U 39.5
Final
HOU @ JAX
Sun 9:30 AM ET
HOU -3.5
O/U 60.5
Final
BAL @ CLE
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BAL -7.5
O/U 26.5
Final
CAR @ PHI
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CAR -4.5
O/U 39.5
Final
CHI @ ATL
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CHI -7.5
O/U 58.5
Final
NO @ NYG
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NO -10.5
O/U 58.5
Final
NYJ @ NE
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NE -7.5
O/U 43.5
Final
PIT @ TB
Sun 1:00 PM ET
TB -2.5
O/U 35.5
Final
TEN @ IND
Sun 1:00 PM ET
TEN -3.5
O/U 43.5
Final
ARI @ LA
Sun 4:05 PM ET
LA -1.5
O/U 35.5
Final
BUF @ LV
Sun 4:25 PM ET
BUF -3.5
O/U 51.5
Final
LAC @ KC
Sun 4:25 PM ET
KC -12.5
O/U 32.5
Final
DAL @ GB
Sun 8:20 PM ET
DAL -1.5
O/U 53.5
Final
WAS @ SF
Mon 8:15 PM ET
SF -7.5
O/U 51.5
Kicked off