Archived Week 6 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Thu Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET · Prime Video · Empower Field at Mile High, Denver Final

Seattle Seahawks

3-2 · 3-3 last season

Final14

At DEN -1.5 Total 39.5 DEN covered · Under

Denver Broncos

3-2 · 4-2 last season

Final17

Line movement open Oct 13 DEN spread +2.5 -1.5 4.0 Total 40.5 39.5 1.0

The angle, before kickoff Pass · 3/10

SEA -2.5 with Denver down both starting corners, but a 40.5 total screams defense.

SideBET AWAY -2.5Denver down both starting corners and ranked #26 on offense.

TotalPASSprojected total 40.5 sits exactly on the line.

Best bet

Seattle -2.5: a top-8 offense against a corner-depleted Denver secondary and #26 scoring unit.

Quick hits

SEA -2.5, total 40.5, implied SEA 21.5 DEN 19.0.
Low scoring: both defenses top-13 in points allowed, DEN offense ranks #26.
SEA pass attack vs Denver secondary missing Surtain II and Moss, both out.
SEA leads and controls, balanced 51% pass rate, grind-it script expected.
JSN questionable (WR1) is the swing; his status reshapes the SEA ceiling.

Key matchups

AJ Barner vs DEN TE #20: 14.9 fpa, softest Seattle spot, FAVORABLE.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs DEN WR #4: 26.9 fpa on paper TOUGH, but Surtain and Moss out.
Bo Nix vs SEA QB #3: 14.5 fpa, TOUGH, Seattle allows #2 pass yards.
Jaylen Waddle vs SEA WR #3: 25.7 fpa, TOUGH, lowest-ranked Denver aerial spot.
Emanuel Wilson vs DEN RB #13: 20.8 fpa trending up, NEUTRAL into a #29 run defense.
RJ Harvey vs SEA RB #9: 20.1 fpa, NEUTRAL, Seattle allows 100 rush yds.

Team	Player	Pos	Proj	DK $	vs defense	FPA	Edge
SEA	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	20.5	$8,600	DEN #10 of 32	30.1	Neutral
SEA	Emanuel Wilson	RB	17.0	$5,800	DEN #12 of 32	20.4	Neutral
SEA	Sam Darnold	QB	16.3	$5,300	DEN #10 of 32	16.4	Neutral
SEA	AJ Barner	TE	8.0	$3,200	DEN #20 of 32	14.3	Favorable
DEN	Bo Nix	QB	15.3	$5,100	SEA #2 of 32	13.7	Tough
DEN	Jaylen Waddle	WR	12.2	$6,000	SEA #3 of 32	25.6	Tough
DEN	J.K. Dobbins	RB	10.6	$5,200	SEA #16 of 32	21.5	Neutral
DEN	Evan Engram	TE	6.2	$3,100	SEA #4 of 32	10.2	Tough

SEA skill positions vs DEN defense

#10/32

16.4 fpa

Bad

#12/32

20.4 fpa

Bad

#10/32

30.1 fpa

Bad

#20/32

14.3 fpa

Good

DEN skill positions vs SEA defense

#2/32

13.7 fpa

Avoid

#16/32

21.5 fpa

Average

#3/32

25.6 fpa

Avoid

#4/32

10.2 fpa

Avoid

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

SEA 59 plays (#22), 51% pass; DEN 57 plays (#29), 58% pass, both slow.
SEA favored, leads and leans run late; DEN trails and throws into a #3 pass defense.
Implied 21.5 vs 19.0: points scarce, DEN just 1.2 pass TD per game.

Projected points (market implied)

SEA19.0

DEN20.5

Offense profile

SEARank of 32DEN

24.7 #13 Pts / G 19.0 #26

244.8 #15 Pass yds / G 175.2 #30

107.2 #18 Rush yds / G 84.2 #26

63.2 #13 Plays / G 57.3 #29

55% Pass rate 56%

1.8 Pass TD / G 1.0

0.8 Rush TD / G 0.8

2.7 Sacks taken / G 1.3

1.2 INT thrown / G 0.5

Defense profile

SEARank of 32DEN

20.3 #9 Pts allowed / G 20.8 #10

156.8 #1 Pass yds allowed 230.0 #16

96.0 #10 Rush yds allowed 139.8 #31

2.7 Sacks / G 3.0

1.2 INT / G 1.2

1.3 Pass TD allowed 1.2

0.7 Rush TD allowed 1.0

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 6 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-10-15 18:00 local No weather factor

Conditions

Sunny

Temp

55°F

feels 47°

Wind

10 mph NNE

gusts 12 mph

Rain

0.00 in

Humidity

27%

Sunny, 55F, wind 9 mph: no weather factor

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

F, wind 12 mph NNE gusting 16, rain 4 percent, minor impact.
Wind nicks long field goals only; passing and totals barely affected.

DFS

Stack Darnold ($5300) with Smith-Njigba if active, exploiting Denver's depleted corners.
Value: Barner $3200 (2.15x) into DEN TE #20, cheapest TE leverage.
Fade Waddle $6000 vs SEA WR #3, 49.5 yard prop capped.
Contrarian: Nix $5100 (3.34x) rushing floor despite the tough QB matchup.

SEA projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	20.5	9.9 / 31.8	$8,600	2.38x	$9,300	#10
RB	Emanuel Wilson	17.0	8.4 / 24.4	$5,800	2.92x	$6,100	#12
QB	Sam Darnold	16.3	8.8 / 22.7	$5,300	3.08x	$7,100	#10
TE	AJ Barner	8.0	2.7 / 14.2	$3,200	2.51x	$4,900	#20
RB	George Holani	7.1	3.0 / 12.4	$4,300	1.64x	$4,900	#12
WR	Rashid Shaheed	7.0	1.9 / 13.2	$3,900	1.81x	$5,500	#10
WR	Cooper Kupp	5.9	1.7 / 12.5	$3,600	1.64x	$5,700	#10

DEN projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	Bo Nix	15.3	8.7 / 21.4	$5,100	3.00x	$7,400	#2
WR	Jaylen Waddle	12.2	5.2 / 20.6	$6,000	2.04x	$6,300	#3
RB	J.K. Dobbins	10.6	5.3 / 18.0	$5,200	2.03x	$6,200	#16
RB	RJ Harvey	9.7	4.8 / 15.3	$4,900	1.98x	$5,600	#16
WR	Courtland Sutton	8.2	3.2 / 15.2	$4,900	1.68x	$5,800	#3
TE	Evan Engram	6.2	2.1 / 11.7	$3,100	2.00x	$5,000	#4
WR	Troy Franklin	4.6	0.9 / 10.2	$3,400	1.35x	$4,700	#3

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

AJ Barner - receptions o2.5 - LEAN over - DEN TE #20, 14.9 fpa favorable.
RJ Harvey - rushing yards o14.5 - LEAN over - 11.8 proj, pass-game involvement vs #29 run D.
Jaylen Waddle - receiving yards u49.5 - LEAN under - SEA WR #3, 25.7 fpa tough.
Sam Darnold - passing yards o221.5 - LEAN over - Denver missing Surtain and Moss.

All SEA and DEN props with AI grades

Injuries

SEA 8 listed

Out Jalen Milroe QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Montorie Foster Jr. WR Unknown Severe
Out Robert Henry Jr. RB Unknown Severe
Out Avery Smith CB Unknown Minimal
Out Brandon Pili NT Unknown Minimal
Out Chazz Surratt LB Calf Minimal
Out Drake Thomas ILB Ankle Minimal
Out Robbie Ouzts FB Unknown Minimal

DEN 8 listed

Out Dallen Bentley TE Unknown Severe
Out Sam Ehlinger QB Coach'S Decision Severe
Out Jonathon Cooper OLB Colo. Minimal
Out Jordan Jackson DE Unknown Minimal
Out Kage Casey OT Unknown Minimal
Out Levelle Bailey ILB Leg Minimal
Out Matt Henningsen DE Unknown Minimal
Out Michael Deiter C Unknown Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

SEA 3-2, coming off 29-32 loss to SF; DEN 3-2, won 23-17 at LAC.
H2H: SEA won last two, 26-20 (2024) and 17-16 (2022).
Line flat: spread and total unmoved from open since Oct 13.

SEA last 5

L 14-17 @ DENL 29-32 vs SFW 30-23 vs LACL 31-33 @ WASW 31-7 @ ARI

DEN last 5

W 17-14 vs SEAW 23-17 @ LACL 14-24 @ SFW 30-26 vs LAW 20-13 vs JAX

Head-to-head

Oct 15, 2026 SEA 14 at DEN 17
Sep 8, 2024 DEN 20 at SEA 26
Sep 12, 2022 DEN 16 at SEA 17

Watch list

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (questionable): active status sets the SEA ceiling and stack.
Leonard Williams (questionable, DE): affects Seattle's #2 pass-rush pressure on Nix.
Talanoa Hufanga (questionable, ankle): Denver safety loss would further open the field.
Line check: any move off SEA -2.5 or 40.5 before Thursday kickoff.