Thu Oct 15, 8:15 PM ET · Prime Video · Empower Field at Mile High, Denver Ready

Seattle Seahawks

3-2 · 3-2 last season

Implied21.5

At SEA -2.5 Total 40.5 Live line · SEA -152 · DEN +128

Denver Broncos

3-2 · 3-2 last season

Implied19.0

Line movement open Oct 13 DEN spread +2.5 +2.5 no move Total 40.5 40.5 no move FanDuel

The angle Pass · 3/10

SEA -2.5 with Denver down both starting corners, but a 40.5 total screams defense.

SideBET AWAY -2.5Denver down both starting corners and ranked #26 on offense.

TotalPASSprojected total 40.5 sits exactly on the line.

Best bet

Seattle -2.5: a top-8 offense against a corner-depleted Denver secondary and #26 scoring unit.

Quick hits

SEA -2.5, total 40.5, implied SEA 21.5 DEN 19.0.
Low scoring: both defenses top-13 in points allowed, DEN offense ranks #26.
SEA pass attack vs Denver secondary missing Surtain II and Moss, both out.
SEA leads and controls, balanced 51% pass rate, grind-it script expected.
JSN questionable (WR1) is the swing; his status reshapes the SEA ceiling.

Key matchups

AJ Barner vs DEN TE #20: 14.9 fpa, softest Seattle spot, FAVORABLE.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba vs DEN WR #4: 26.9 fpa on paper TOUGH, but Surtain and Moss out.
Bo Nix vs SEA QB #3: 14.5 fpa, TOUGH, Seattle allows #2 pass yards.
Jaylen Waddle vs SEA WR #3: 25.7 fpa, TOUGH, lowest-ranked Denver aerial spot.
Emanuel Wilson vs DEN RB #13: 20.8 fpa trending up, NEUTRAL into a #29 run defense.
RJ Harvey vs SEA RB #9: 20.1 fpa, NEUTRAL, Seattle allows 100 rush yds.

Team	Player	Pos	Proj	DK $	vs defense	FPA	Edge
SEA	Jaxon Smith-Njigba	WR	22.3	$8,600	DEN #4 of 32	26.9	Tough
SEA	Sam Darnold	QB	16.2	$5,300	DEN #11 of 32	16.2	Neutral
SEA	Emanuel Wilson	RB	13.4	$5,800	DEN #13 of 32	20.8	Neutral
SEA	AJ Barner	TE	6.9	$3,200	DEN #20 of 32	14.9	Favorable
DEN	Bo Nix	QB	17.0	$5,100	SEA #3 of 32	14.5	Tough
DEN	Jaylen Waddle	WR	13.8	$6,000	SEA #3 of 32	25.7	Tough
DEN	RJ Harvey	RB	11.8	$4,900	SEA #9 of 32	20.1	Neutral
DEN	Evan Engram	TE	5.4	$3,100	SEA #12 of 32	11.7	Neutral

SEA skill positions vs DEN defense

#11/32

16.2 fpa

Bad

#13/32

20.8 fpa

Bad

#4/32

26.9 fpa

Avoid

#20/32

14.9 fpa

Good

DEN skill positions vs SEA defense

#3/32

14.5 fpa

Avoid

#9/32

20.1 fpa

Bad

#3/32

25.7 fpa

Avoid

#12/32

11.7 fpa

Bad

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

SEA 59 plays (#22), 51% pass; DEN 57 plays (#29), 58% pass, both slow.
SEA favored, leads and leans run late; DEN trails and throws into a #3 pass defense.
Implied 21.5 vs 19.0: points scarce, DEN just 1.2 pass TD per game.

Projected points (market implied)

SEA21.5

DEN19.0

Offense profile

SEARank of 32DEN

26.8 #8 Pts / G 19.4 #26

238.2 #16 Pass yds / G 188.8 #27

106.0 #17 Rush yds / G 86.2 #25

59.4 #22 Plays / G 57.4 #29

51% Pass rate 58%

2.2 Pass TD / G 1.2

0.8 Rush TD / G 0.6

2.2 Sacks taken / G 1.2

1.0 INT thrown / G 0.6

Defense profile

SEARank of 32DEN

21.0 #8 Pts allowed / G 22.2 #13

166.8 #2 Pass yds allowed 220.4 #9

100.4 #11 Rush yds allowed 145.2 #29

2.8 Sacks / G 2.6

1.4 INT / G 1.0

1.6 Pass TD allowed 1.4

0.4 Rush TD allowed 1.0

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 5 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-10-15 18:00 local Low impact

Conditions

Partly Cloudy

Temp

51°F

feels 45°

Wind

12 mph NNE

gusts 16 mph

Rain

0.00 in

Humidity

41%

Wind 11 mph: minor, mostly on long kicks

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

F, wind 12 mph NNE gusting 16, rain 4 percent, minor impact.
Wind nicks long field goals only; passing and totals barely affected.

DFS

Stack Darnold ($5300) with Smith-Njigba if active, exploiting Denver's depleted corners.
Value: Barner $3200 (2.15x) into DEN TE #20, cheapest TE leverage.
Fade Waddle $6000 vs SEA WR #3, 49.5 yard prop capped.
Contrarian: Nix $5100 (3.34x) rushing floor despite the tough QB matchup.

SEA projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
WR	Jaxon Smith-Njigba questionable	22.3	11.3 / 32.8	$8,600	2.59x	$9,300	#4
QB	Sam Darnold	16.2	9.9 / 24.2	$5,300	3.05x	$7,100	#11
RB	Emanuel Wilson	13.4	7.6 / 22.3	$5,800	2.32x	$6,100	#13
RB	George Holani	7.2	3.2 / 12.6	$4,300	1.66x	$4,900	#13
TE	AJ Barner	6.9	2.3 / 13.2	$3,200	2.15x	$4,900	#20
WR	Rashid Shaheed	6.9	2.0 / 13.7	$3,900	1.76x	$5,500	#4
WR	Cooper Kupp	6.4	1.6 / 12.5	$3,600	1.77x	$5,700	#4

DEN projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	Bo Nix	17.0	11.1 / 25.9	$5,100	3.34x	$7,400	#3
WR	Jaylen Waddle	13.8	6.3 / 23.9	$6,000	2.29x	$6,300	#3
RB	RJ Harvey	11.8	6.7 / 17.6	$4,900	2.42x	$5,600	#9
RB	J.K. Dobbins	8.8	4.5 / 16.1	$5,200	1.69x	$6,200	#9
WR	Courtland Sutton	8.3	3.4 / 16.1	$4,900	1.69x	$5,800	#3
TE	Evan Engram	5.4	1.6 / 11.4	$3,100	1.75x	$5,000	#12
WR	Troy Franklin	4.0	0.0 / 9.4	$3,400	1.17x	$4,700	#3

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

AJ Barner - receptions o2.5 - LEAN over - DEN TE #20, 14.9 fpa favorable.
RJ Harvey - rushing yards o14.5 - LEAN over - 11.8 proj, pass-game involvement vs #29 run D.
Jaylen Waddle - receiving yards u49.5 - LEAN under - SEA WR #3, 25.7 fpa tough.
Sam Darnold - passing yards o221.5 - LEAN over - Denver missing Surtain and Moss.

Player	Market	Line	Proj	Over	Book	Opp rank
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR SEA	Receptions	6.5	5.5	-121	BetRivers	#9
Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR SEA	Rec yds	93.5	85.9	-112	DraftKings	#9
Bo Nix QB DEN	Pass TD	1.5	1.5	+185	BetRivers	#19
Bo Nix QB DEN	Pass yds	199.5	228.6	+100	BetMGM	#1
Bo Nix QB DEN	Rush yds	16.5	8.5	-110	BetMGM	#11
Sam Darnold QB SEA	Pass TD	1.5	2.0	+135	BetRivers	#16
Sam Darnold QB SEA	Pass yds	221.5	211.2	-110	Fanatics	#9
Sam Darnold QB SEA	Rush yds	4.5	4.5	-110	BetRivers	#29
Jaylen Waddle WR DEN	Receptions	4.5	4.8	-110	DraftKings	#2
Jaylen Waddle WR DEN	Rec yds	49.5	54.3	-111	DraftKings	#2
Emanuel Wilson RB SEA	Rush yds	65.5	64.7	-114	DraftKings	#29
Emanuel Wilson RB SEA	Receptions	1.5	1.3	-114	FanDuel	#9
Emanuel Wilson RB SEA	Rec yds	9.5	12.9	-114	FanDuel	#9
RJ Harvey RB DEN	Rush yds	14.5	17.1	-107	DraftKings	#11

Best available over price per line. Opp rank = the defense's rank in that stat allowed (32 allows the most).

All SEA and DEN props with AI grades

Injuries

SEA 8 listed

Out Irvin Charles WR Knee Severe
Quest. Drew Lock QB Forearm Moderate
Out Chazz Surratt LB Unknown Minimal
Out Robbie Ouzts FB Unknown Minimal
Out Terrion Arnold CB Unknown Minimal
Quest. Drake Thomas ILB Ankle Minimal
Quest. Jaxon Smith-Njigba WR Unknown Minimal
Quest. Leonard Williams DE Unknown Minimal

DEN 8 listed

IR Caleb Lohner TE Lower Body Severe
Out Jonathon Cooper OLB Colo. Minimal
Out Levelle Bailey ILB Leg Minimal
Out Matt Henningsen DE Unknown Minimal
Out Michael Deiter C Unknown Minimal
Out Patrick Surtain II CB Unknown Minimal
Out Riley Moss CB Ribs Minimal
Quest. Talanoa Hufanga FS Ankle Minimal

Full NFL injury report

Trends & head-to-head

SEA 3-2, coming off 29-32 loss to SF; DEN 3-2, won 23-17 at LAC.
H2H: SEA won last two, 26-20 (2024) and 17-16 (2022).
Line flat: spread and total unmoved from open since Oct 13.

SEA last 5

L 29-32 vs SFW 30-23 vs LACL 31-33 @ WASW 31-7 @ ARIW 13-10 vs NE

DEN last 5

W 23-17 @ LACL 14-24 @ SFW 30-26 vs LAW 20-13 vs JAXL 10-31 @ KC

Head-to-head

Sep 8, 2024 DEN 20 at SEA 26
Sep 12, 2022 DEN 16 at SEA 17

Watch list

Jaxon Smith-Njigba (questionable): active status sets the SEA ceiling and stack.
Leonard Williams (questionable, DE): affects Seattle's #2 pass-rush pressure on Nix.
Talanoa Hufanga (questionable, ankle): Denver safety loss would further open the field.
Line check: any move off SEA -2.5 or 40.5 before Thursday kickoff.