Archived Week 6 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns
Sun Oct 18, 1:00 PM ET · FOX · Huntington Bank Field, Cleveland Division Final
Baltimore Ravens
4-1 · 4-2 last season
Final10
At BAL -7.5 Total 26.5 CLE covered · Under
Cleveland Browns
3-2 · 4-2 last season
Final13
Line movement open Oct 13 CLE spread +4.5 +7.5 3.0 Total 41.5 26.5 15.0
The angle, before kickoff Pass · 3/10

BAL -3 with model margin exactly 3.0, the only edge is Boston vs Baltimore's 28th WR defense.

SideBET AWAY -3line moved CLE 4.5 to 3.0 toward Baltimore.
TotalPASSprojected total 39.4 sits on the 39.5 line.
Best bet
Denzel Boston over 48.5 receiving yards against Baltimore's 28th-ranked WR defense allowing 38.2 fpa.
Quick hits
  • Market BAL -3, total 39.5, implied BAL 21.2 CLE 18.2.
  • Low-scoring: both totals under 22, CLE offense #27, total dropped to 39.5.
  • Denzel Boston vs BAL #28 WR defense (38.2 fpa) is the SMASH spot.
  • BAL leads, run-heavy (46% pass rate, 164 rush yds #3); CLE trails, throws.
  • Lamar questionable (ankle); Huntley projected start raises CLE's floor.

Key matchups

  • Denzel Boston vs BAL #28 WR: 38.2 fpa, elite, SMASH.
  • Tyler Huntley vs CLE #7 QB: 15.5 fpa, TOUGH, avoid passing.
  • Derrick Henry vs CLE #12 RB: 20.8 fpa, neutral, volume play.
  • Quinshon Judkins vs BAL #9 RB: 20.2 fpa, neutral, and questionable foot.
  • Zay Flowers vs CLE #15 WR: 31.4 fpa, neutral, toe questionable.
  • Deshaun Watson vs BAL #15 QB: 17.9 fpa, neutral.
BAL skill positions vs CLE defense
QB
#6/32
15.4 fpa
Avoid
RB
#6/32
19.6 fpa
Avoid
WR
#11/32
30.3 fpa
Bad
TE
#22/32
14.7 fpa
Good
CLE skill positions vs BAL defense
QB
#11/32
16.6 fpa
Bad
RB
#9/32
20.0 fpa
Bad
WR
#27/32
36.6 fpa
Elite
TE
#6/32
10.7 fpa
Avoid

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

  • BAL 62 plays #17, 46% pass, run-heavy; CLE 59 plays #24, 54% pass.
  • Favorite BAL leans Henry and clock; dog CLE throws chasing points.
  • Points scarce: implied 21.2 and 18.2, CLE 0.4 rush TD signals red-zone trouble.
Projected points (market implied)
BAL17.0
CLE9.5
Offense profile
BALRank of 32CLE
26.0 #7 Pts / G 17.7 #28
232.7 #19 Pass yds / G 195.7 #25
151.5 #3 Rush yds / G 94.0 #24
61.2 #21 Plays / G 59.0 #26
48% Pass rate 53%
1.5 Pass TD / G 1.2
1.5 Rush TD / G 0.5
2.3 Sacks taken / G 4.0
0.2 INT thrown / G 0.3
Defense profile
BALRank of 32CLE
22.0 #15 Pts allowed / G 20.3 #7
226.0 #11 Pass yds allowed 227.7 #13
100.5 #12 Rush yds allowed 112.3 #17
2.5 Sacks / G 3.2
0.5 INT / G 0.7
0.8 Pass TD allowed 1.8
1.2 Rush TD allowed 0.2

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 6 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-10-18 13:00 local No weather factor
Conditions
Sunny
Temp
58°F
feels 50°
Wind
9 mph SSW
gusts 12 mph
Rain
1%
0.00 in
Humidity
36%
  • Sunny, 58F, wind 8 mph: no weather factor
WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface
  • Sunny, 58F, wind 9 mph gusting 12, rain 1%.
  • DraftEdge read: no weather factor, passing and kicking unaffected.

DFS

  • Stack: Huntley plus Boston bring-back, cheap at $4700 and $5500.
  • Value: Boston $5500 (1.91x) vs #28 WR defense, the leverage play.
  • Fade: Judkins $5500, questionable foot into BAL #9 RB defense.
  • Contrarian: KC Concepcion $4200 (2.22x) also feasts on BAL's #28 WR spot.

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

  • Denzel Boston - receiving yards 48.5 - over - #28 WR matchup, 38.2 fpa.
  • Tyler Huntley - passing yards 164.5 - under - CLE #7 QB defense, 15.5 fpa.
  • Derrick Henry - rushing yards 92.5 - under - CLE #12 RB, run-heavy but contained.
  • Deshaun Watson - passing yards 202.5 - over - throws chasing, proj 202.5.
All BAL and CLE props with AI grades

Injuries

BAL 8 listed
  • Out Elijah Sarratt WR Coach'S Decision Severe
  • Out Lamar Jackson QB Unknown Severe
  • Out Matthew Hibner TE Unknown Severe
  • Out Skylar Thompson QB Unknown Severe
  • Out Andrew Vorhees G Foot Minimal
  • Out Broderick Washington DT Unknown Minimal
  • Out Cam Jurgens C Unknown Minimal
  • Out K'Von Wallace FS Unknown Minimal
CLE 8 listed
  • Out Joe Royer TE Personal Severe
  • Out Quinshon Judkins RB Ankle Severe
  • Out Taylen Green QB Coach'S Decision Severe
  • Out Damarri Mathis CB Unknown Minimal
  • Out Edefuan Ulofoshio LB Biceps Minimal
  • Out Elijah Chatman DT Quadriceps Minimal
  • Out Grant Delpit FS Concussion Minimal
  • Out Mason Graham DT Knee/Ankle Minimal
Full NFL injury report

Watch list

  • Lamar Jackson ankle questionable - Huntley start changes BAL's passing ceiling.
  • Quinshon Judkins foot questionable - McLaughlin inherits touches if out.
  • Zay Flowers toe questionable - monitor before locking the Huntley stack.
  • Spread at 3.0 - any push toward 2.5 or 3.5 shifts side value.

Week 6 slate

All 14 games this week.
SEA @ DEN
Thu 8:15 PM ET
DEN -1.5
O/U 39.5
Final
HOU @ JAX
Sun 9:30 AM ET
HOU -3.5
O/U 60.5
Final
BAL @ CLE
Sun 1:00 PM ET
BAL -7.5
O/U 26.5
Final
CAR @ PHI
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CAR -4.5
O/U 39.5
Final
CHI @ ATL
Sun 1:00 PM ET
CHI -7.5
O/U 58.5
Final
NO @ NYG
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NO -10.5
O/U 58.5
Final
NYJ @ NE
Sun 1:00 PM ET
NE -7.5
O/U 43.5
Final
PIT @ TB
Sun 1:00 PM ET
TB -2.5
O/U 35.5
Final
TEN @ IND
Sun 1:00 PM ET
TEN -3.5
O/U 43.5
Final
ARI @ LA
Sun 4:05 PM ET
LA -1.5
O/U 35.5
Final
BUF @ LV
Sun 4:25 PM ET
BUF -3.5
O/U 51.5
Final
LAC @ KC
Sun 4:25 PM ET
KC -12.5
O/U 32.5
Final
DAL @ GB
Sun 8:20 PM ET
DAL -1.5
O/U 53.5
Final
WAS @ SF
Mon 8:15 PM ET
SF -7.5
O/U 51.5
Kicked off
Updated Oct 17, 5:01 PM ET For entertainment and informational purposes only; not betting or gambling advice.