Archived Week 6 breakdown. The odds, projections and picks below are the pregame numbers as published in 2026, not a live board. See this week's breakdowns

Sun Oct 18, 9:30 AM ET · NFL NETWORK · Wembley Stadium, London, United Kingdom Neutral site Division Final

Houston Texans

1-4 · 2-4 last season

Final34

Neutral site HOU -3.5 Total 60.5 JAX covered · Over

Jacksonville Jaguars

4-1 · 4-2 last season

Final31

Line movement open Oct 13 JAX spread -2.5 +3.5 6.0 Total 42.5 60.5 18.0

The angle, before kickoff Lean · 4/10

JAX -2.5 but both WR1s draw bottom-third coverage - Collins and Washington are the edges in a 42.5 total.

SidePASSprojected 2.5-point margin matches the spread exactly with no line move.

TotalPASSimplied totals sum to 42.5, dead on the line.

Best bet

Nico Collins over 72.5 receiving yards against the 24th-ranked JAX pass defense with a 27.8 ceiling.

Quick hits

Market JAX -2.5, total 42.5, implied HOU 20.0 / JAX 22.5.
Balanced-to-modest scoring, 42.5 total with two elite run defenses capping ground games.
JAX run defense #1 vs HOU rush #31 is a mismatch, but both pass defenses rank soft vs WR.
JAX 24.6 PPG offense leads narrow, HOU leans pass at 61% chasing points.
Weather wind 14 mph and JAX secondary questionable can swing passing volume.

Key matchups

Nico Collins vs JAX #24 vs WR: 35.5 fpa, favorable, ceiling 27.8.
Parker Washington vs HOU #23 vs WR: 35.1 fpa, favorable, proj 14.3.
Woody Marks vs JAX #1 vs RB: 17.4 fpa, avoid, tough grind.
Bhayshul Tuten vs HOU #3 vs RB: 18.6 fpa, avoid, tough box.
Trevor Lawrence vs HOU #8 vs QB: 15.6 fpa, neutral, capped upside.
Dalton Schultz vs JAX #10 vs TE: 11.6 fpa, neutral, low floor 3.2.

Team	Player	Pos	Proj	DK $	vs defense	FPA	Edge
HOU	C.J. Stroud	QB	16.4	$5,600	JAX #15 of 32	17.7	Neutral
HOU	Nico Collins	WR	15.5	$7,200	JAX #28 of 32	37.2	Smash
HOU	Woody Marks	RB	12.1	$5,400	JAX #1 of 32	17.6	Tough
HOU	Dalton Schultz	TE	8.1	$3,900	JAX #17 of 32	12.7	Neutral
JAX	Trevor Lawrence	QB	17.4	$5,900	HOU #14 of 32	17.4	Neutral
JAX	Parker Washington	WR	13.3	$6,400	HOU #23 of 32	35.4	Favorable
JAX	Bhayshul Tuten	RB	13.1	$5,600	HOU #10 of 32	20.3	Neutral
JAX	Brenton Strange	TE	9.9	$4,000	HOU #11 of 32	11.9	Neutral

HOU skill positions vs JAX defense

#15/32

17.7 fpa

Average

#1/32

17.6 fpa

Avoid

#28/32

37.2 fpa

Elite

#17/32

12.7 fpa

Average

JAX skill positions vs HOU defense

#14/32

17.4 fpa

Bad

#10/32

20.3 fpa

Bad

#23/32

35.4 fpa

Good

#11/32

11.9 fpa

Bad

Rank 32 allows the most fantasy points to the position (softest matchup), 1 the fewest. Ratings blend the 2025-26 regular season (with a last-8-games form tilt) into current-season data as games are played: current weight = games / (games + 4), so the new season takes over quickly.

Game script & scoring

HOU 63 plays 61% pass vs JAX slow 59 plays 51% pass; expect HOU volume edge.
JAX leads, leans run into HOU #3 front; HOU trails and throws chasing points.
Points come through the air, both WR spots 23rd-24th, RBs stuffed, total near 42.5.

Projected points (market implied)

HOU32.0

JAX28.5

Offense profile

HOURank of 32JAX

24.0 #14 Pts / G 25.7 #8

285.8 #4 Pass yds / G 246.7 #14

84.8 #25 Rush yds / G 112.8 #14

62.7 #15 Plays / G 60.2 #23

61% Pass rate 52%

1.5 Pass TD / G 2.3

1.0 Rush TD / G 0.7

2.3 Sacks taken / G 1.7

0.2 INT thrown / G 0.7

Defense profile

HOURank of 32JAX

23.8 #20 Pts allowed / G 17.3 #3

270.0 #28 Pass yds allowed 283.0 #30

83.0 #3 Rush yds allowed 72.2 #1

3.0 Sacks / G 1.8

0.5 INT / G 1.2

1.7 Pass TD allowed 1.2

0.8 Rush TD allowed 0.7

Rank 1 = best of 32 (offense: most; defense: fewest allowed). Basis: rolling window from 2026-09-09, 6 games per team.

Weather

At kickoff · 2026-10-18 14:00 local Low impact

Conditions

Partly Cloudy

Temp

59°F

feels 48°

Wind

14 mph NNE

gusts 20 mph

Rain

0.00 in

Humidity

38%

Wind 13 mph: minor, mostly on long kicks

WeatherAPI hourly forecast · Grass surface

Wind 14 mph NNE gusts 20, 59F, 5% rain - minor, mostly on long kicks.
Low impact on passing and the 42.5 total; no meaningful DFS adjustment.

DFS

Stack Stroud ($5600) plus Collins ($7200) into JAX #24 WR defense.
Value: Brenton Strange $4000, 2.49x, proj 9.9 vs neutral TE spot.
Fade both RBs: Marks vs #1 and Tuten vs #3 run defenses.
Contrarian: Jakobi Meyers $4700 against soft HOU WR coverage.

HOU projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	C.J. Stroud	16.4	10.4 / 25.1	$5,600	2.93x	$10,800	#15
WR	Nico Collins	15.5	7.5 / 28.3	$7,200	2.15x	$11,800	#28
RB	Woody Marks	12.1	6.8 / 20.3	$5,400	2.25x	$9,600	#1
TE	Dalton Schultz	8.1	3.3 / 14.8	$3,900	2.07x	$5,800	#17
WR	Kayshon Boutte	6.0	1.4 / 12.2	$3,700	1.61x	$3,600	#28
WR	Jaylin Noel	5.8	1.7 / 11.9	$3,200	1.80x	$7,000	#28
WR	Marvin Harrison Jr.	5.0	0.1 / 12.1	$4,700	1.07x	$8,600	#28

JAX projected players

Pos	Player	Proj	Floor / ceil	DK $	Val	FD $	vs
QB	Trevor Lawrence	17.4	11.2 / 26.1	$5,900	2.96x	$12,600	#14
WR	Parker Washington	13.3	6.2 / 25.0	$6,400	2.08x	$11,200	#23
RB	Bhayshul Tuten	13.1	7.8 / 22.4	$5,600	2.34x	$10,000	#10
TE	Brenton Strange	9.9	4.0 / 17.2	$4,000	2.48x	$7,400	#11
WR	Jakobi Meyers	9.1	3.4 / 16.7	$4,700	1.93x	$8,200	#23
WR	Brian Thomas Jr.	6.0	1.4 / 12.1	$3,700	1.63x	$5,000	#23
WR	Josh Cameron	3.9	0.0 / 10.8	$3,200	1.22x	$3,400	#23

Val = projected points per $1,000 of DraftKings salary. vs = the opposing defense's rank against that position (32 softest).

Build this slate in the optimizer See player props

Props

Nico Collins - receiving yards 72.5 - lean over - JAX #24 vs WR, ceiling 27.8.
Parker Washington - receiving yards 62.5 - lean over - HOU #23 vs WR, proj 14.3.
Woody Marks - rushing yards 45.5 - lean under - JAX #1 run defense, 17.4 fpa.
Bhayshul Tuten - rushing yards 63.5 - lean under - HOU #3 run defense, 18.6 fpa.

All HOU and JAX props with AI grades